formtheory
Stallion
Cheers Arkle!
I would love to see his posts out of interest really!
I would love to see his posts out of interest really!
mlmrob
Sire
I have read some very interesting articles and posts re VDW and I have learned from them. Not following VDW as a disciple but as a person who has learned from what people have posted. That in itself is worth it's weight in gold. VDW did set out a methodology which I believe people have tweaked to bet with some success. However, I am not sure many people these days, ten years on from when some of the most enlightening posts were made, are posting and stating it is a selection made from a VDW method as a critique generally follows.
I for one love, reading the posts on this thread as there are some very informed people who do know what they are talking about.
Great thread guys, keep up the good work
I for one love, reading the posts on this thread as there are some very informed people who do know what they are talking about.
Great thread guys, keep up the good work
Chesham
Sire
mick said:
Hi Mick
The Longest period that I have Posted Consecutively was from 1st Feb to 20th Feb 2008 and that was partly to see if VDW's Strike rate of 80% could be achieved. The Forum was none VDW, but the method was based on class and performance within their LTO Race. During the same period another Poster was also interested in class and his methods also have merits which I will explain later on in this post.
These were the selections posted Pre
Name (Kempton 8.20) Adjusted Rating Result
Neardown Beauty(IRE) 74 Won 2/1
Confidentiality(IRE) 72.68
One Night In Paris (IRE) 71
Name (Southwell 1.30) Adjusted Rating Result
Bo McGinty 76.52 Won 15/8
Desert Opal 62.39
Lord Of The Reins 61.50
After The Show 61.07
Doubtful Sound 46.68
Spoof Master 45.99
Name (Southwell 3.30) Adjusted Rating Result
Dudley Dock 67.47 2nd 4/5
Obe Royal 61.86
High ´n Dry 59.04
Yakimov 41.35
Name (Wolverhampton 6.50) Adjusted Rating Result
Bel Cantor 66.11 Won 15/8
Tag Team 60.84
Strathmore 60.23
Chatshow 60.17
Methaaly 46.80
Mafaheem 46.72
Avontuur 45.23
Dematraf 35.95
Name (Southwell 3.30) Adjusted Rating Result
Godfrey Street 80.42 won 2/1
Financial Times 79.18
Diminuto 74.15
Distinctly Game 71.00
Bo McGinty 70.52
Doubtful Sound 59.01
Name (Lingfield 3.10) Adjusted Rating Result
Samarinda 90.57 Won 4/1
Troubadour 90.39
Speedy Sam 85.10
Lisathedaddy 84.87
Dream Lodge 81.68
Will He Wish 78.00
Name (Lingfield 3.45) Adjusted Rating Result
Mogok Ruby 73.93 3rd 5/2
Divertimenti 72.20
Fromsong 68.00
Bobski 64.61
Sands Crooner 64.00
Benllech 61.00
Strathmore 60.23
Name (Lingfield 4.20) Adjusted Rating Result
Rock Anthem 69.59 5th 12/1
Prince Charlemagne 69.23
Stark Contrast 65.50
Srikuantan 61.19
Alfie Tupper 58.69
Blu Manruna 56.47
Name (Wolverhampton 4.05) Adjusted Rating Result
Princess Cocoa 78.09 Won 3/1
Oakley Heffert 68.17
Sol Rojo 59.21
Justcallmehandsome 51.50
Morbick 50.00
Name (Lingfield 4.40) Adjusted Rating Result
Highland Harvest 73.00 won 7/4
Wrighty Almighty 68.78
Onenightinlisbon 67.01
Paradise Dancer 59.00
Epidaurian King 58.20
Lingfield 4.30 Adjusted Rating Result
Benllech 76.05 Won 15/8
Mogok Ruby 73.93
Westport 72.57
Chjimes 64.72
Lord Of The Reins 64.33
Angel Voices 63.50
Southwell 4.10 Adjusted Rating Result
They All Laughed 65.74 Won 6/4
Phone Call 53.73
Key Partners 51.95
Nimello 46.56
Now onto the other idea that the other person Posted which encouraged me to post my selections. I think his method is very good and his concept may appeal to Mtoto
The old adage of trainers handicapping their own horses still stands and physical weight is a handy tool for excuses. The OR is a completely different ball game, though, and should be taken less lightly as I have found that trainers tend to show their cards via this route. The best way to track the horses optimum class-weighting is to note it's OR relation to the top OR. For example, If it runs well in a race where it is top OR and 5lbs clear of the next then its class-weighting will be '+5'. On the other hand, if it runs well in a race where it is rated, say, 80 and the top OR is 95, then the class weighting would be -15, and so on. You will soon build up an optimum class-weighting for horses and, therefore, determine if they have got any real chance in future races.
It is during the past 12 months that I revisited the other Posters method and I found that it can be usefully applied in conjunction with Speed Ratings of your choice providing you have Class Par's for which ever Speed Ratings that your are using. I think the Bluesbrother has given the Speed Pars for his Ratings too
Using those most Available to Members
Top Speed Class Pars
Grp1 =117
Grp2= 109
Grp 3 = 102
Listed 98
2= 94
3= 85
4=79
5=65
6=62
Look at any horse who has run faster than class LTO
Example that I sent someone
LTO, (15/12/120 ON The Hoof ran in a Class 5 and the Topspeed Class Par = 65. On The Hoof was given a Topspeed Rating = 73, so was +8 better than Par.
The Highest OHR in the LTO race 76 (The Class Ceiling for the Race) On The Hoof was OHR = 66 so was officially 10lbs lower than the class ceiling. (-10) so needs to improve 10lbs to beat the class Ceiling on Official Ratings
Today OHR for On The Hoof was 72 and the Highest Rated OHR = 75, so On The Hoof is now only 3lbs below the class Ceiling but on his Topspeed Rating is 8lbs above the Class Par.
Also note that the same Trainer won this race last year.
None of the Other Runners today had LTO recorded a Topspeed Figure anything like the Class Par
Now if you apply the two same pieces of data to the York Glory Race (28/11/12)
The race that I posted had York Glory Top Rated on Class. If you look at his LTO( 21/11/12) Raw Top Speed Figure it was 98 and a class 3 race. Now look at the Top Speed Class Par for Class 3 and it is 85, so York Glory was 13 lbs better than class. Next Time out was raised 6lbs by the Official Handicapper but 13 minus 6 makes York Glory 7 lbs well in, especially as it is still in the Class 3 Ceiling ie TOP Speed Par 85 and York Glory is +7lbs well in above the TOP Speed Par class Ceiling. The Race was officially 0-95 and the highest rated horse who turned up was rated OHR 95
Now if you apply the 2nd Method LTO York Glory ran off OHR =92 and the Highest OHR in the race was 95, so York Glory was -3lbs lower than the Class Ceiling
Next Time out is rated OHR 98 and apart from York Glory the nearest highest was OHR 88, so York Glory is now +10lbs better than the OHR Class Ceiling for this race plus of course LTO ran a Top Speed 13lbs better than the Class par
If used in conjunction with Speed Pars the Class Ceiling Method that was the idea of the other poster interested in class, works as good as anything.
The following was my Post on Another Forum for the York Glory, but race using my Own Speed and Class ratings but the above is there to demonstrate how you could do the same, using nothing more than Top Speed Ratings and Movements in Class using the Official BHA Ratings and then checking to see if there are any dangers, the Post below Explains why the Trainer has gone for this particular race.
Wolverhampton 3.20
CR = Class Ratings
SF = Speed Figures, My personal ones
Sorted by Class Ratings
Horse, CR, SF
York Glory, 84, 100
Moorhouse Lad, 80, 90
Last Sovereign, 80, 78
Six Wives, 72, 57
Rylee Mooch, 72, 62
Alaskan Bullet, 71, 68
Whozthecat, 70, 82
Profile Star, 63, 76
Tango Sky, 45, 58
York Glory will not be able to Race In This Class from Saturday as the BHA Handicapper has raised his mark to 98 on The AW, so it looks like the Trainer is taking a chance that the Weight carried today will be of offset by his class. As this meeting was a last minute BHA planning decision, because Southwell was abandoned, it is an opportunity that connection must think is to the horses favour. The Trainer has always thought highly of this horse.
Good Luck
Chesham
Chesham
Sire
mick said:Very interesting Chesham and thanks for posting.I feel that the official handicappers are some of the best judges and my ratings are constructed with a view to mirroring their own ,with the hope that occasionally i can disagree with them.
Hi Mick
I quite like reading the BHA Handicapper's Blogs
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/gorac ... appers.asp
Useful insight into their mind set when looking at how much they have revised a rating about particular horses. Whenever I have emailed them regarding which horses they have used as a marker.
Example
I emailed them about Sea The Stars "Please can you help me with the following questions
In the Irish Champion Stakes which horse was used as the benchmark to arrive at the rating of 135 for Sea The Stars
Which horse was used as the Benchmark to rate Sea The Stars in The ARC
Many Thanks"
Their swift Reply
I have talked to Phil Smith our head of handicapping, and it was Mastercraftsman in the Irish Champion and Conduit and Youmzain in the Arc.
Hope that helps!
Good Luck
Chesham
formtheory
Stallion
Brilliant post Chesham!
Can this method be used in a race where there is not a horse that ran faster than class?
I like the idea as I have little spare time and is a quick way of getting a measure on the field.
Would you always be looking at just the LTO race?
Cheers Paul!
Can this method be used in a race where there is not a horse that ran faster than class?
I like the idea as I have little spare time and is a quick way of getting a measure on the field.
Would you always be looking at just the LTO race?
Cheers Paul!
Chesham
Sire
formtheory said:
The Person made the Post about the way he looked at Class Ceiling Movement would not have been using Speed Pars ( Something that I added) The method he used was to identify when the Horse was racing at his optimum Class -Weighting based on previous performance when racing within that Class- Weighting. He would have noted how the horse had performed when racing above that Class - Weighting to see if the horse was coming to the boil. He may well have spotted that a few races back and the horse could have been racing over different trips, going, wrong course type to gets the horses at top condition and where the form was disguised sufficiently enough to get connections a decent chance of getting money on early at a decent price. Probably he was operating in a similar way to Mick who often spots a horse has ridden better than his Handicap mark, but may have to wait a few races until the Trainer has placed him in a race that Mick thinks is winnable.
Good Luck
Chesham
mick
Sire
Chesham said:mick said:Very interesting Chesham and thanks for posting.I feel that the official handicappers are some of the best judges and my ratings are constructed with a view to mirroring their own ,with the hope that occasionally i can disagree with them.
Hi Mick
I quite like reading the BHA Handicapper's Blogs
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/gorac ... appers.asp
Useful insight into their mind set when looking at how much they have revised a rating about particular horses. Whenever I have emailed them regarding which horses they have used as a marker.
Example
I emailed them about Sea The Stars "Please can you help me with the following questions
In the Irish Champion Stakes which horse was used as the benchmark to arrive at the rating of 135 for Sea The Stars
Which horse was used as the Benchmark to rate Sea The Stars in The ARC
Many Thanks"
Their swift Reply
I have talked to Phil Smith our head of handicapping, and it was Mastercraftsman in the Irish Champion and Conduit and Youmzain in the Arc.
Hope that helps!
Good Luck
Chesham
Yes they are supposed to be clinical and detached yet they are human they do imo sometimes make mistakes and also i feel sometimes give pay back when they think a trainer has mugged them off.
hedgehog
Dam
Hello all,
Looked at the 3.10 Curragh today and have it between levanto, something graceful, kim's dream and bobskier but I don't like the comments for the subset c.f l and I'm not impressed by kd making a meal of it lto when beating a maiden so that leaves sg and b.
Sg was beaten lto by a lower ar horse but had an excuse, b was beaten lto by a higher ar horse which I consider more impressive however the odds are such a profitable book can be made so that is what I have done with bh and betfair
Good luck if you play today
Looked at the 3.10 Curragh today and have it between levanto, something graceful, kim's dream and bobskier but I don't like the comments for the subset c.f l and I'm not impressed by kd making a meal of it lto when beating a maiden so that leaves sg and b.
Sg was beaten lto by a lower ar horse but had an excuse, b was beaten lto by a higher ar horse which I consider more impressive however the odds are such a profitable book can be made so that is what I have done with bh and betfair
Good luck if you play today
hedgehog
Dam
Hello all,
I may bet today depending on the weather.
Looked at the 6.50 leopardstown today and have it between al kazeem, declaration of war, kingsbarns and trading leather, of these only dow and k are suited to soft or worse. Ak is not a form horse and tl has bad opposition so that leaves dow and k. Dow is my preferred option but a profitable book can be had from the pair so that is what I would do.
I'll wait on the weather though
Good luck if you play today
I may bet today depending on the weather.
Looked at the 6.50 leopardstown today and have it between al kazeem, declaration of war, kingsbarns and trading leather, of these only dow and k are suited to soft or worse. Ak is not a form horse and tl has bad opposition so that leaves dow and k. Dow is my preferred option but a profitable book can be had from the pair so that is what I would do.
I'll wait on the weather though
Good luck if you play today
formtheory
Stallion
Nice pick mate!
Take care
Paul.
Take care
Paul.
formtheory
Stallion
Hi Hedgehog!
I do not think there is anymore a frustrating hobby sometimes than backing horses!
I have so much in my mind when beginning to look at a race that at times I do not know where to begin!
I have come to the conclusion I need to go back to basics, find the simplest answer to a race, the horse with the best reason to win- Occams Razor.
I have so much clouding what really needs to be done! Hidden V.D.W elements, how to use them correctly etc.....
I have decided to forget them for now and go back to the start.
Think positive Hedgehog, you found a decent winner... You will again tomorrow!
I do not think there is anymore a frustrating hobby sometimes than backing horses!
I have so much in my mind when beginning to look at a race that at times I do not know where to begin!
I have come to the conclusion I need to go back to basics, find the simplest answer to a race, the horse with the best reason to win- Occams Razor.
I have so much clouding what really needs to be done! Hidden V.D.W elements, how to use them correctly etc.....
I have decided to forget them for now and go back to the start.
Think positive Hedgehog, you found a decent winner... You will again tomorrow!
