Sectionals - breakdown by class.
- Thread starter pete
- Start date
pete
Sire
Too late .. I already sat down .. think I proved my point to myself .. wasnt sure that I was going to for a minute there 
Spent several loooong hours on this tonight .. I think progress is definately being made ... using the little fireball icons that you see on the attheraces sectional timing page to indicate horses finishing at least 2% better than the race finishing speed ... (it basically picks out the strongest finishers in the race) .. I am going to concentrate on 5f, 6f and 7f races only .. I'm mostly going to be avoiding horses that have won the race as prices are less likely to be there next time out.
Looks like its going to be another note and wait type of thing .. but early signs are good that i'll be able to pick the qualifiers to follow and also when to make them a selection and when to avoid them in future races.
My head is swimming with stats .. I've got pages and pages of notes ... but I do think I can see light at the end of this one ... another couple of hours tomorrow night should wrap it up and have it ready to roll
Stay Tuned.
Spent several loooong hours on this tonight .. I think progress is definately being made ... using the little fireball icons that you see on the attheraces sectional timing page to indicate horses finishing at least 2% better than the race finishing speed ... (it basically picks out the strongest finishers in the race) .. I am going to concentrate on 5f, 6f and 7f races only .. I'm mostly going to be avoiding horses that have won the race as prices are less likely to be there next time out.
Looks like its going to be another note and wait type of thing .. but early signs are good that i'll be able to pick the qualifiers to follow and also when to make them a selection and when to avoid them in future races.
My head is swimming with stats .. I've got pages and pages of notes ... but I do think I can see light at the end of this one ... another couple of hours tomorrow night should wrap it up and have it ready to roll
Stay Tuned.
pete
Sire
Getting some thoughts down for when I get back home later ....
Given that the fireballs indicate a horse that has a better turn of foot towards the business end of the race amongst those that it is competing against today ... these will be the ones that we concentrate on.
Its long been a thory of mine that the higher up the class scale you go ... the faster the horses can cover that final couple of furlongs ... of course a lot of this depends on how that particular race was run ... In general ... the faster the early speed .. the slower the finish is going to be. However - overall ... a horse stepping up in class is going to run up against horses than on the whole can close out a race faster than the ones that he competed against last time out .. therefore the fireball that was awarded now has less significance if that horse is now competing against others that can close a race faster. His advantage is now diminished.
Conversely ... a horse gaining a fireball that then then drops in class .. should have an even greater advantage over the final two furlongs ... so we should be concentrating on horses running in the same or lower class company next time out.
The second area that I would like to concentrate on .. are horses that are earning the fireballs when running in a "key" race.
A horse that has closed out a race when up against horses that go on to win or place next time out ... is preferred to a horse that earns a fireball against average horses.
The final area of concentration is distance. Looking at past results last night, I noticed that horses going up in distance after earning a fireball did ok as long as they stayed in the same class of race or dropped a class. Those dropping in distance did not do as well. However there were multiple instances of horses changing class/distance ... running an average race, then reverting to original class/distance and winning at decent odds. So the trainer seems to have intentionally put a run in between a fireball earning performance .. and winning a race.
Note: a horse earning a fast close mark that is coming from a strong pace race should do better next time than a horse earning the mark coming from a slowly paced race ... slow run races tend to often have multiple qualifiers ... a lot of times these races can be thrown out if there are four or five horses in a race that earn qualification ... I have been compiling a list of all final two furlong rave times by course and class to get an average time that the final 2f shoukd be run in so that I can better spot a fast or slow race ...
I also intend to watch replays to get a better idea of how those final two furlongs looked rather than just rely on pure numbers.
.... more to come later.
Given that the fireballs indicate a horse that has a better turn of foot towards the business end of the race amongst those that it is competing against today ... these will be the ones that we concentrate on.
Its long been a thory of mine that the higher up the class scale you go ... the faster the horses can cover that final couple of furlongs ... of course a lot of this depends on how that particular race was run ... In general ... the faster the early speed .. the slower the finish is going to be. However - overall ... a horse stepping up in class is going to run up against horses than on the whole can close out a race faster than the ones that he competed against last time out .. therefore the fireball that was awarded now has less significance if that horse is now competing against others that can close a race faster. His advantage is now diminished.
Conversely ... a horse gaining a fireball that then then drops in class .. should have an even greater advantage over the final two furlongs ... so we should be concentrating on horses running in the same or lower class company next time out.
The second area that I would like to concentrate on .. are horses that are earning the fireballs when running in a "key" race.
A horse that has closed out a race when up against horses that go on to win or place next time out ... is preferred to a horse that earns a fireball against average horses.
The final area of concentration is distance. Looking at past results last night, I noticed that horses going up in distance after earning a fireball did ok as long as they stayed in the same class of race or dropped a class. Those dropping in distance did not do as well. However there were multiple instances of horses changing class/distance ... running an average race, then reverting to original class/distance and winning at decent odds. So the trainer seems to have intentionally put a run in between a fireball earning performance .. and winning a race.
Note: a horse earning a fast close mark that is coming from a strong pace race should do better next time than a horse earning the mark coming from a slowly paced race ... slow run races tend to often have multiple qualifiers ... a lot of times these races can be thrown out if there are four or five horses in a race that earn qualification ... I have been compiling a list of all final two furlong rave times by course and class to get an average time that the final 2f shoukd be run in so that I can better spot a fast or slow race ...
I also intend to watch replays to get a better idea of how those final two furlongs looked rather than just rely on pure numbers.
.... more to come later.
Last edited:
jcjames
Newbie
Little wonder your head is 'swimming with stats'. Fireball icons, graphs, coloured charts, etc. etc, etc. The Attheraces presentation of sectional times is way overcomplicated when there is no need for it to be so. Punters (and people in general) tend to think 'if it is too simple' then it can't be worth anything. This of course is complete and utter nonsense!
The most important information offered by sectional timing can be gotten - without giving yourself a headache!
The most important information offered by sectional timing can be gotten - without giving yourself a headache!
pete
Sire
.... do go on ....