Jackform
Mare
Will this prove anything with regard to the methodology - your guess is as good as mine, but at least I won't be back-fitting or after-timing 
.
Setting the parameters for selection I am taking my guidance from a Raceform Handicap Book booklet issued in 1985 (as I remember it was a freebie that you had to send a stamped addressed envelope for). The four page introduction is signed off by VDW and the remainder a compilation by Tony Peach from previous Forum correspondence:
I quote, “It is perhaps worthwhile at this stage to reiterate and clarify for new readers some of the early signposts on the road to success given by VDW at this juncture.
They were:
1. Narrowing the field.
2. Looking at horses that win a high percentage of races with regard to their Form figures (I will hope to reduce to one race a day by selecting the race with the highest percentage of winning form from the last three placings of the entire field).
3. Studying the first five in the betting forecast of non-handicap races and the first six in handicaps.
4. Using two rating methods (the rating derived from consistency and NOT handicap figures).
5. AND perhaps most important of all combining these points, ‘subject to other considerations’ (to confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned taking particular note of the class in which they ran, the courses they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important how they performed at the latter stages of each race. At best I shall only consider the last race).
To complete the working platform it is useful to have another measure giving some indication of the various horses chances in the present situation and which will assist in confirming other data. This can be time, handicap ratings, form ratings etc., but always keep in mind that they are a guide. I use two sets of ratings compiled on different lines so that I may judge the reliability of the figures (I will be using RPR and Formcast).”
I quote, “Taken step by step and starting with the principal meeting the agenda is:
1. Select the most valuable race on the card (this is not always satisfactory as at main meetings and festivals most races on the card are worthy of considering).
2. Consider the next most valuable race.
3. Select most valuable race from other cards.
4. Rate entire field for ability (Lifetime prize money from wins divided by number of lifetime wins, but I shall use PatternForm 2year+ to save time but cheating a little really).
5. Select most consistent from the first 5 or 6 in the betting.
6. Apply selected racing method to entire field (this is the method detailed in the Forum letter dated 25 Aug 1979. The three most consistent from the five most recent runs for horses that recorded placings of 1 – 4 in either of their last two outings in the entire field).”
(For some unknown reason using two other ratings for confirmation has been omitted, but I shall include them).
The other main consideration is the staking and though so races would be better by ‘dutching’ I shall make a selection and back it to the VDW staking plan, although as it is risky I will use a maximum theoretical bank of 200 points, say £2,000 at £10 a point (seeing as we are only paper trading).
I quote, “Readers may be interested in the method I have used for over 40 years which basically aims to win one point profit from each bet,”
Headings for the betting book are: Bet no., points staked, result, won, lost, debit, credit.
“Stakes are increased by one point each bet until the debit is reduced to zero. However, note that stakes should not exceed the debit by more than 1 point. A winning bet has one point deducted (profit required). The resultant figure is deducted from the debit column. When the debit is zero subtract loss from win and enter the profit in the credit column.”
There you have it a tour de force with my one-finger typing, now worn down to stumps, and we are ready for the off.
Jack
.Setting the parameters for selection I am taking my guidance from a Raceform Handicap Book booklet issued in 1985 (as I remember it was a freebie that you had to send a stamped addressed envelope for). The four page introduction is signed off by VDW and the remainder a compilation by Tony Peach from previous Forum correspondence:
I quote, “It is perhaps worthwhile at this stage to reiterate and clarify for new readers some of the early signposts on the road to success given by VDW at this juncture.
They were:
1. Narrowing the field.
2. Looking at horses that win a high percentage of races with regard to their Form figures (I will hope to reduce to one race a day by selecting the race with the highest percentage of winning form from the last three placings of the entire field).
3. Studying the first five in the betting forecast of non-handicap races and the first six in handicaps.
4. Using two rating methods (the rating derived from consistency and NOT handicap figures).
5. AND perhaps most important of all combining these points, ‘subject to other considerations’ (to confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned taking particular note of the class in which they ran, the courses they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important how they performed at the latter stages of each race. At best I shall only consider the last race).
To complete the working platform it is useful to have another measure giving some indication of the various horses chances in the present situation and which will assist in confirming other data. This can be time, handicap ratings, form ratings etc., but always keep in mind that they are a guide. I use two sets of ratings compiled on different lines so that I may judge the reliability of the figures (I will be using RPR and Formcast).”
I quote, “Taken step by step and starting with the principal meeting the agenda is:
1. Select the most valuable race on the card (this is not always satisfactory as at main meetings and festivals most races on the card are worthy of considering).
2. Consider the next most valuable race.
3. Select most valuable race from other cards.
4. Rate entire field for ability (Lifetime prize money from wins divided by number of lifetime wins, but I shall use PatternForm 2year+ to save time but cheating a little really).
5. Select most consistent from the first 5 or 6 in the betting.
6. Apply selected racing method to entire field (this is the method detailed in the Forum letter dated 25 Aug 1979. The three most consistent from the five most recent runs for horses that recorded placings of 1 – 4 in either of their last two outings in the entire field).”
(For some unknown reason using two other ratings for confirmation has been omitted, but I shall include them).
The other main consideration is the staking and though so races would be better by ‘dutching’ I shall make a selection and back it to the VDW staking plan, although as it is risky I will use a maximum theoretical bank of 200 points, say £2,000 at £10 a point (seeing as we are only paper trading).
I quote, “Readers may be interested in the method I have used for over 40 years which basically aims to win one point profit from each bet,”
Headings for the betting book are: Bet no., points staked, result, won, lost, debit, credit.
“Stakes are increased by one point each bet until the debit is reduced to zero. However, note that stakes should not exceed the debit by more than 1 point. A winning bet has one point deducted (profit required). The resultant figure is deducted from the debit column. When the debit is zero subtract loss from win and enter the profit in the credit column.”
There you have it a tour de force with my one-finger typing, now worn down to stumps, and we are ready for the off.
Jack
