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Selections in the style of Van Der Wheil

Thankyou mate!

It was very tight!!

Edge of your seat stuff!

  1. I understand where Arkle is coming from in respect to my posting but It was listed due to a factor that I am experimenting with and did not want to post.

One factor was the pace, Mister Music finished 2nd to Graphic who virtually led all the way, Mister Music was held up in the rear and did really well to finish so close
 
Chesham,

I can see where you are coming from with regards Sandagiyr

Thanks for the in put. I had noticed Pied A Terre and like all the horse in the race he had been looked . As I said in my post I did expect
Mont Ras to be pulled out but as he was still in when I posted and made my bet I had to go with the facts I had. Mont Ras never came into the equation for me as there were three horse with proven form in better class and one with proven form I would never have taken them on with a horse without proven form (my way).

Pulling Mont Ras out did alter the ratings and possibly my take on the race. It moved Ascription up to top rated and while it didn't change my thoughts on Sandagiyr being the class horse it did change the fact he now had to beat a higher rated horse who would be suited by the track.
I wouldn't have backed Ascription because of the price I can't in all honest say it would have stopped me backing Sandagiyr but I may have taken a different perspective on the race.

Your views are always welcome.

Be Lucky
 
mtoto said:
Chesham,

I can see where you are coming from with regards Sandagiyr

Thanks for the in put. I had noticed Pied A Terre and like all the horse in the race he had been looked . As I said in my post I did expect
Mont Ras to be pulled out but as he was still in when I posted and made my bet I had to go with the facts I had. Mont Ras never came into the equation for me as there were three horse with proven form in better class and one with proven form I would never have taken them on with a horse without proven form (my way).

Pulling Mont Ras out did alter the ratings and possibly my take on the race. It moved Ascription up to top rated and while it didn't change my thoughts on Sandagiyr being the class horse it did change the fact he now had to beat a higher rated horse who would be suited by the track.
I wouldn't have backedption Ascriptio because of the price I can't in all honest say it would have stopped me backing Sandagiyr but I may have taken a different perspective on the race.

Your views are always welcome.

Be Lucky
Click to expand...

Hi Mtoto

The Godolphin pair performed around 10lbs worse that their LTO performance, my only thought for the future is the ground conditions was really tacky for them both to perform that badly. Using Gabrial The Great as a benchmark, the performance of the Godlophin pair should not take any gloss off Ascription, as I think he is now Listed or grp 3 class, so your rating that put him Top on Class was certainly an accurate measure, especially with that performance to back it up.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Thank you Chesham!

Something clicked when reading one of your posts, I stayed up half the night looking through the form creating a list from which to follow.


Hope that the other horses I have listed perform as well!

It really suits my time constraints as I will no longer be looking for bets, plus this should help with discipline.

Also Mtoto has helped me realise the importance of the courses, so am trying to scrub up in that area!

Hope your well
Take care
Paul.
 
Cheers Nagwa!
Arkle too!

Hope they continue in the same way, I was tempted to not bet with the presence of Boom and Bust but the price I thought was worth it when looking at the rest of the field!
 
formtheory said:
Thank you Chesham!

Something clicked when reading one of your posts, I stayed up half the night looking through the form creating a list from which to follow.


Hope that the other horses I have listed perform as well!

It really suits my time constraints as I will no longer be looking for bets, plus this should help with discipline.

Also Mtoto has helped me realise the importance of the courses, so am trying to scrub up in that area!

Hope your well
Take care
Paul.
Click to expand...


I know that Lee said he preferred to work from a list as he could watch the Trainers Race entry for each horse and learnt just as much from when they did not take up the Race entry.

Mtoto is correct about suitability of the course, VDW mentioned that he would not back Wayward Lad if he run at Cheltenham and was sceptical about Kempton being the right course for Forgive and Foget, also said about the long striding horse not being suited to tracks like Epsom.

It is worth noting that the runner up has only won when when the ground is GD/Frm or Firm so probably needs to skip along the ground, if the handicapper does not push him up, could be worth seeing how he is placed and if he gets the ground he needs.

VDW said he would not have backed Pegwell Bay had the going been soft. These days it is more of a problem, in the good old days the Clerks did not interfere as much, but these days as a few clerks of the course over water or water a couple of days before and then it rains making the going very unreliable. Because horses now have to be confirmed at the 48 hr stage, it results in runners being withdrawn, often altering the pace shape of the race.
Boom Or Bust
Firm 1/2 50.0%
Good to Firm 5/10 50.0%
Good 0/8
Soft 0/1

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Also Mtoto has helped me realise the importance of the courses, so am trying to scrub up in that area!
Formtheory

The Racegoers Encylopedia by John White with a forward by Lord Oaksey is a very good book on courses in the UK and Irleand. First published in 1992 by Collins Willow.
Downey
 
I am struggling today with the racing being typical run-of-the mill Monday fare. Considered the Musselburgh 3.10 and Brighton 4.20 but eliminated it owing to the withdrawals..
Lost on Saturday -4pts (£40), debit 14pts (£140), bank 190pts.

Musselburgh 3.10
Consistency rating 1 and 2 identify the same 'possibles'.

Dr Irv - up 8lbs (3lb claimer helps) led challenged just held on 16f 0-80 good. Not £class, not conformed.
Man Of Plenty - up 2lbs held up never on terms 6 of 8 16f 0-85 good. Not £class, confirmed by RPR/Formcast.
Aleksander - up 15lbs ridden soon beaten 5 of 9 16f good. Not £class, not confirmed.
Jan Smuts - dropped 13lbs ridden kept on well 2 of 16 14f 0-65 soft. Not £class, confirmed by RPR/Formcast.
The selection is Jan Smuts to carry the 5 points (£50) wager (just KBO as Churchill said :crazy:).
 
Jackform said:
I am struggling today with the racing being typical run-of-the mill Monday fare. Considered the Musselburgh 3.10 and Brighton 4.20 but eliminated it owing to the withdrawals..
Lost on Saturday -4pts (£40), debit 14pts (£140), bank 190pts.

Musselburgh 3.10
Consistency rating 1 and 2 identify the same 'possibles'.

Dr Irv - up 8lbs (3lb claimer helps) led challenged just held on 16f 0-80 good. Not £class, not conformed.
Man Of Plenty - up 2lbs held up never on terms 6 of 8 16f 0-85 good. Not £class, confirmed by RPR/Formcast.
Aleksander - up 15lbs ridden soon beaten 5 of 9 16f good. Not £class, not confirmed.
Jan Smuts - dropped 13lbs ridden kept on well 2 of 16 14f 0-65 soft. Not £class, confirmed by RPR/Formcast.
The selection is Jan Smuts to carry the 5 points (£50) wager (just KBO as Churchill said :crazy:).
Click to expand...


Hi Jack

Graham Lee got a good tune out of Jan Smuts LTO and has jumped off this one in favour of the Likely front runner, ALEKSANDAR. Seeing as Lee has won two of the three races that Jan Smuts won, it is unlikely that Lee would have opted to have jumped ship today.

Jan Smuts has only won handicaps with the highest OHR in the race being 63 and today the highest OHR = 79, so I think Jan Smuts is racing above his class ceiling.

Federal Blue has been coming down the weights and Fanning back on board and cannot be ruled out

Looks a race to watch and not bet in

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Here I am, better late than never - some might say! Tuesday is shopping day. my time is not my own, nuff said.

Lost yesterday minus 5pts (£50), debit 20pts (£200), bank 185pts.

Left with no choice but the Stratford 6.05.
Consistency rating 1 and 2.
Letsby Avenue - up 3lbs lead driven clear mistake stayed on won 24f 0-135 good. Not £class, not confirmed.
Benbane Head - dropped 1lb soon ridden lead narrowly held on won 24f 0-130 good. 3rd on £class, confirmed by RPR/Formcast.
Staigue Fort - up 8lbs (3lb claimer to help) not fluent headway driven to lead won 22f 0-110 GF. Not £class, not confirmed.

The selection is Benbane head for the 6pts (£60) wager.
 
Again unlucky there Jackform!

Enjoying your write ups!

I felt that Judge N Jury put in a good effort last time out behind Justineo, who had been dropped from group 2 level after showing much improvement, in my opinion J&J is a form horse

J&J is running tomorrow in a class 2 handicap at Yarmouth 4:55.

He has been turned out quickly, so escapes running off a mark of 100, although top weight he is carrying less physical weight than LTO.

He is the class form horse on the boil, although knocking on a bit now and gives weight to his youngers who are all stepping up in class.

As mentioned before about class ceilings by both Chesham and Rob, they are all running above their level but of course they are all young horses so it is not a set level yet !

J&Js last win was a £7000 race so a target of £12,000 looks more than feasible here!

Not 100% on the course?
Detorri is still on board and has taken this race 3 times before which could be seen as a positive.

I feel that at the moment the 6-1 is a decent price for J&J, but I am going to hold out and see if I can get a little bigger!
 
Judge N Jury's record over 5f on soft ground reads; 14112216.He should beat Normal Equlibrium onthese terms and at the minute I have the race between JnJ and Goldream.

I do worry he hasn't run here before as Yarmouth is bit like running on corrugated iron and quite a few horses don't take to the surface.
 
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