• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Selections in the style of Van Der Wheil

Hi Rob!
I noticed that Ron Harris has only ever had 1 runner at Yarmouth before so I am not sure why he is sending J&J there tomorrow, unless he simply feels the level of competition is beatable for a decent prize.

I am going to back him, I felt that Normal Equilibrium was a big price within this field!

I will be backing J&J as his form is clear, and should be placed to win.

(Hope so)
 
formtheory said:
Hi Rob!
I noticed that Ron Harris has only ever had 1 runner at Yarmouth before so I am not sure why he is sending J&J there tomorrow, unless he simply feels the level of competition is beatable for a decent prize.

I am going to back him, I felt that Normal Equilibrium was a big price within this field!

I will be backing J&J as his form is clear, and should be placed to win.

(Hope so)
Click to expand...


Hi

Ron Harris has had 15 runners at Yarmouth and nil winners

Drawn 12 and others to challenge the pace, at 9 Years old might find it tough. Is also coming form non handicap form LTO, previous race one third of the field were withdrawn

Good Luck

Chesham
 
formtheory,
Thanks for the interest, I'm just glad I am not putting the money down.
My race today with the highest percentage of winning form is the Sandown 5.35.

Lost yesterday minus 6pts (£60), debit 27pts (£270), bank 177pts.

Sandown 5.35
Consistency rating 1.
Fast Pace - dropped 2lbs headway ridden chased kept on justfailed 2 of 9 Kempton 11f 0-80 AW. Not £class, not confirmed.
Penny Rose = up 9lbs tracked lead ridden same pace went 3rd 3 of 8 -15L no chance Ascot 8f 0-95 good. Top £class, not confirmed.
LyricBallad - dropped 3lbs close up headway every chance kept on lost 2nd 3 of 5 Leicester 0-80 good. 2nd £class, confirmed by RPR/Formcast.
Consistency rating 2.
Lady Pimpernel - up 1lb led ridden headed kept on well held 2 of 7 12f 0-85. Not £class, not confirmed.

The selection today is Lyric Ballad for the 7pts (£70) wager.

My misgivings over the selection are such that I ran the rule over the race, just by way of comparison you understand, rating the field and converting the ratings into an independent tissue:
Powder Hound 95/40
Fast Pace 3/1
Topamichi 7/2
Lyric Ballad 5/1
Lady Pimpernel 20/1
Penny Rose 125/1
Unmoothaj 125/1
 
3:10 Yar 1 Shuruq 2 Hippy Hippy Shake 3 Ribbons


This is another no bet race for me as the majority seem to agree with my view of the form leaving no value!!
For anyone who is interested my take on the runners is Shuruq improving and the only runner with proven form in a higher class. Apart from the fact I can't get 6/4 or better for the place the doubts about her are. As her last race was an improvement has she had enough time to get over what looked to be a hard race, and then the change of going and distance raise questions. It is possible returning to a flat speed track maybe an advantage and suit better than last time out.
Hippy Hippy Shake a close second best on the ratings who although has good form on stiff courses has proven form on flat speed courses. I make her 3rd best of the probables, for me a major doubt in this is will she handle this track on slower going?
Ribbons top probable but that is all she has going for her. She is improving but has to to win this. Her track profile isn't of much help it shows she can handle right handed tracks of most descriptions, and the going should not be a problem.

I can wait there's always tomorrow or next week ;)

Be Lucky
 
Yarmouth 3.45

Altharoos LTO won a Class 3 Highest OHR Competition 92 with runner up

Gabrial’s Kaka LTO had won a Class 3, the runner up had won LTO


Today carries 2lbs more Physical Weight and although up in class the Nearest OHR = 88 so 4lbs down in class


2nd LTO can be excused was reported to have lost his action, the Winner of that Race had won LTO, The Runner Up Top Notch Tonto had won LTO and went onto to win a Grp 3 since. The highest OHR = 98, so Sir Michael was happy to pitch Altharoos into a decent class handicap and was 4/1 so was not expected to be a no hoper against the competition


The Favourite today at the Time of writing is Mahican who LTO won and the 2nd Horse Gabrial The Thug was still a Maiden after 11 runs (Highest OHR to Mahican 79, so today Mahican is up 9 lbs in class. Also the race was a slowly run affair and Mahican had things his own way up front. Today has plenty of competition for the Pace Lead.


Based on previous Form & Class, Mahican looks to be a False Forecast Favourite


Tinghir LTO won (Highest OHR 85) 2nd horse had won a maiden but had failed to win a handicap in 4 runs since that


2nd LTO Tinghir was 4th behind another Sir Michael Trained Bold Sniper as decent handicapper (Worth noting that the 2nd 3rd and 4th all won next time out) I would imagine that Sir Michael has a line on the potential of Tinghir via Bold Sniper.

Noble Gift last win was in a AW race where the Highest OHR was 82 and on Turf his last win was in a race with a highest OHR = 75 and today is a 88


VDW mentioned looking at the tracks and distance that they were introduced to as a 2 Y-O and that the well thought of horses were not over raced as 2 -y-O’s



Altharoos had 3 outings as a 2-Y0 and had his first run at Newbury over 7f. Timeform described him as follows after that introduction “(by Sakhee: first foal: dam, unraced, half-sister to smart 7f (at 2 yrs)/1m winner Tazahum, out of useful 2-y-o 7f winner, herself sister to high-class Maraahel1¼m/1½m performer) the pick of the field on looks and bred to be useful, was clearly in need of experience and shaped very well; slowly into stride, held up, quickened after 2f out to chase leaders, effort flattened out; sure to improve considerably”


Today’s race is likely to be about stamina with at least 3 horses who like to push the pace up front and Sir Michael having Trained Maraahel to win 7 Grp Races (Altharoos shares the same Gran Dam as Maraahel) will now how to place Altharoos to best effect and todays prize looks well within Maraahel’s Class ceiling


The Trainer/Jockey Stats


Filter: P Hanagan combo, Fancied, Yarmouth = 2/2

Clive Brittain looks to have tried to get Daghash ready for this race but the ground looks to gone against this one, but is the one I fear most when he puts this type of horse in who has won a similar class race over C&D

Clive Brittain Stats
Filter: Unfancied, Yarmouth, Class ABC

2 wins from 10 runs (20.0%), 5.86 A/E, Profit of £131.00 (1310.0%)





Good Luck

Chesham
 
Last edited:
mtoto said:
3:10 Yar 1 Shuruq 2 Hippy Hippy Shake 3 Ribbons


This is another no bet race for me as the majority seem to agree with my view of the form leaving no value!!
For anyone who is interested my take on the runners is Shuruq improving and the only runner with proven form in a higher class. Apart from the fact I can't get 6/4 or better for the place the doubts about her are. As her last race was an improvement has she had enough time to get over what looked to be a hard race, and then the change of going and distance raise questions. It is possible returning to a flat speed track maybe an advantage and suit better than last time out.
Hippy Hippy Shake a close second best on the ratings who although has good form on stiff courses has proven form on flat speed courses. I make her 3rd best of the probables, for me a major doubt in this is will she handle this track on slower going?
Ribbons top probable but that is all she has going for her. She is improving but has to to win this. Her track profile isn't of much help it shows she can handle right handed tracks of most descriptions, and the going should not be a problem.

I can wait there's always tomorrow or next week ;)

Be Lucky
Click to expand...

Miss You Too ran in our Oaks & the German Oaks. Where did she come in the list?
 
Watched the 3.45 and Altharoos seemed to change legs a few times in this race as though he could not get balanced to make any sort of challenge, not sure yet why that was but suspect it was the undulations, although I did not think it was a undulating track, but he winning jockey mentioned that he did not want to get into a pace battle with the Johnston horse because of the undulations. He said that his Mare had won on the track before but was mindful that if you hit one of the undulations it throws your horse off balance ( They say you learn something new every day and I have LOL)

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Last edited:
I do worry he hasn't run here before as Yarmouth is bit like running on corrugated iron and quite a few horses don't take to the surface.

Chesham,

I did notice this put up by Mimrob, as you we live and learn I had never heard that before o_O

Dicko

Miss You Too was well down the list the only scoring element she had was she was in the forecast.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

I have never been to Yarmouth Track but after Robs comments and the Jockey of the winner and watching my selection change legs, more than once, I will be careful to look for course form If I select a future one at this track.

When I was watching the race I could not understand why the horse was changing legs on the Track and Going. None of the descriptions that I usually look at, mention undulations

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Chesham, i have been to Yarmouth race course and i do not remember any undulations, i did only get to view the home straight and it was several years ago now. Maybe just like the roads, dips naturaly appear when the ground underneath starts to shift. If and when the dips / undulating surface gets to bad/ noticeable, the ground staff will repair and knowone will be the wiser. This must happen at all tracks to different degrees at some point. Earth, clay rock, it all moves. I think from memory, Doncaster a few years back had a drain colapse and they had to dig part of the track up and relay. Doncster course owners were probably aware of a potetial problem at the time but like all of us at some point we do not repair quick enough and then the damage is done. Im waffling now so im off to study Ayr some more.

Arkle
 
Hi all!

A quick question, as you know I have been compiling a list of horses to follow which is all well and good but with having a small betting bank it will take a long time to build it up waiting for the right horses to come along.

Would the bank grow quicker with a higher turnover? Would it be better to pick a meeting each day and bet 1 point per race and hopefully gain a few points each day?

Any thoughts would be appreciated!
 
formtheory said:
Hi all!

A quick question, as you know I have been compiling a list of horses to follow which is all well and good but with having a small betting bank it will take a long time to build it up waiting for the right horses to come along.

Would the bank grow quicker with a higher turnover? Would it be better to pick a meeting each day and bet 1 point per race and hopefully gain a few points each day?

Any thoughts would be appreciated!
Click to expand...
My advise would be to stay as you are and wait for your right horses/bets to come, this way will take longer to build your capital but quality will out.
 
formtheory said:
Thanks for the advice Mick, appreciate it!
Click to expand...
Regardless of positive previous or current results i found that slower is quicker.It took me many years of reinvesting all profits and very gradually increasing my unit stake to build up a good size and safe tank.There were many ups and downs along the way (there still are).

No one forces us to bet every day and that's one of our biggest edges.Industry figures support the fact that 97% of backers will fail to profit long term,so that's the odds we are working against before we even get started. Anyone wishing to become one of the 3% will not only have to work hard at it but also understand and develop discipline.

Very boring but then again there is nothing exciting about losing.?
 
Thankyou for the advice! Mick, Rob,
I shall continue as I am.

Do you think anyone on here would be interested in a get together at a meeting in the future?

Not sure if thats what people would go for or not?

Take care
Paul.
 
mlmrob said:
You don't need to back more winners, you need to back less losers.
Click to expand...
Well said........If a racing holy grail exists i do not think its a hidden form line but rather being able to maintain a "positive balance" for all aspects of what we are doing.

This is very relevant when applied to the quantity/quality/roi of our bets.During an avg year i would have 200 bets expecting to produce 50pts lsp with anything above this deemed a welcome bonus.I could not achieve this avg 25% roi via increased bet volume.

I wish it where otherwise but i know and now accept that this is the balance which works for myself.
 
It's not going well - I suppose you have noticed :D. A fillies hcap today of all things and fillies and handicaps and betting don't go together often in my book.
Lost yesterday minus 7pts (£70), debit 35pts (£350), bank 172pts.

I did wish to assess the Yarmouth 4.00 with 62% winning form but owing to the non-runners it's not viable now. So, the Ponty 4.00 where at least the going is forecast on the firm side of good:
Consistency rating 1
Floating Along - up 10lbs lead good pace headed no extra 3 of 5 Salisbury 7f GF. Not £class, not confirmed.
Jubilante - up 9lbs headway kept on one pace Newmarket 5 of 11 7f 0-100 GF. Not £class, confirmd by RPR/Formcast
Penny Garcia - dropped 5lbs tracked lead ridden one pace 4 of 6 Catterick 7f0-85 G. Not £class, confirmed by RPR/Formcast.
Jubilant Queen - dropped 1lb keen headway chasing ridden ran on well won 1 of 8 Windsor 6f 0-85 GF. Not £class, confirmed by RPR/Formcast.
Consistency rating 2 -
It's Taboo - dropped 11lbs prominent led shaken up comfortably won 1 of 5 Ffos Las mdn auction stks. Not £class, not confirmed.

The selection is Jubilant Queen for the 8pts (£80) wager.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top