• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Selections in the style of Van Der Wheil

hi i,d like to put up a selection i,d like anyone to talk through this race if they dont mind,the race is the 4.10 at ayr

shortlist
toto kyllachy
silver rime
karaka jack
dream walker

in the past i,ve went with what my figures have said now i,m trying to get a selection through form and conditions
my selection is dream walker
condition wise it looks good for dream walker won over C/D in soft 3 races ago, may have tried to put more condition on the horse lto with 11st on its back lto on good going it likes the soft the the thing that bothers me is the class of race but at 4-y-o it may still be improving.....any thoughts
 
Ayr 4:40 1 Beaumont's Party 2 King Of The Danes 3 Maven



Beaumont's Party Hope I'm reading this correctly and he has been waiting for the ground to soften. He is the best of the horses with proven form in a better class, but that isn't based on his winning performances. I have his best performance on this going but on a stiff course he is entered in the Cambridgeshire and I'm hoping this isn't just a prep race but even if it is he should still be placed. I was more than a little disappointed about the price as I was hoping all the naughts would have put folk off. Place price is only just acceptable small win loaded place

Be Lucky
 
maybe ellison will have a good meeting i think he has a stayer that has a good chance later in the week at ayr mtoto
 
Hi enoch top on my figs No poppy @ +1 ,Dream walker is next on - 1 as you say raised in class and OR but excluding poppy then my figs say the proven class horses are not well treated.If correct this leaves the door open for an improver such as yours.A proven ability to act on this soft ground can prove a great equalizer.My -1 fig might be negated via the very good 5lb claimer booked.Currently offered at 7/1 bog i would say you could certainly do worse.
 
mtoto said:
Ayr 4:40 1 Beaumont's Party 2 King Of The Danes 3 Maven



Beaumont's Party Hope I'm reading this correctly and he has been waiting for the ground to soften. He is the best of the horses with proven form in a better class, but that isn't based on his winning performances. I have his best performance on this going but on a stiff course he is entered in the Cambridgeshire and I'm hoping this isn't just a prep race but even if it is he should still be placed. I was more than a little disappointed about the price as I was hoping all the naughts would have put folk off. Place price is only just acceptable small win loaded place

Be Lucky
Click to expand...

Hi Mtoto

The Trainer has good stats for this type of race and ran well at Hamilton over further, The Johnston Runner is likely to try and make the pace and should find others try to contest the pace which would set things up for your selection


Filter: 10f, Ayr, 3yo+, Class ABC, Race (Type) Hcaps


4 wins from 6 runs (66.7%), 3.26 A/E, Profit of £10.75 (179.2%)

Beaumont's Party traded at 25% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP on 2 of its last 5 starts which indicates that he was showing an effort on his part.

Hope that you collect, as good thinking by you from outside the box

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Mtoto
I agree with what you say about Beaumonts Party he has a couple of non winning runs which is more than enough to win this. I had an interest at 8/1 early this morning.
Downey
 
Ellison just misses out on a 3 on the bounce treble dream walker,montefeltro, and beaumonts party 2nd hard lines mtoto,had them all on single and the two better prices place only
 
enoch said:
hi i,d like to put up a selection i,d like anyone to talk through this race if they dont mind,the race is the 4.10 at ayr

shortlist
toto kyllachy
silver rime
karaka jack
dream walker

in the past i,ve went with what my figures have said now i,m trying to get a selection through form and conditions
my selection is dream walker
condition wise it looks good for dream walker won over C/D in soft 3 races ago, may have tried to put more condition on the horse lto with 11st on its back lto on good going it likes the soft the the thing that bothers me is the class of race but at 4-y-o it may still be improving.....any thoughts
Click to expand...



Well done Les, great call.
 
mtoto said:
Ayr 4:40 1 Beaumont's Party 2 King Of The Danes 3 Maven



Beaumont's Party Hope I'm reading this correctly and he has been waiting for the ground to soften. He is the best of the horses with proven form in a better class, but that isn't based on his winning performances. I have his best performance on this going but on a stiff course he is entered in the Cambridgeshire and I'm hoping this isn't just a prep race but even if it is he should still be placed. I was more than a little disappointed about the price as I was hoping all the naughts would have put folk off. Place price is only just acceptable small win loaded place

Be Lucky
Click to expand...

Very good call Mtoto and a very good trial for the Cambridgeshire.
 
Hi Mtoto & Enoch

Well done, well deserved profit with your selection today and thanks Mick for your analysis with the 4.10 Race and Downey well done also

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Last edited:
Newbury 4:40

Tawhid looks good here with conditions to suit.

Godolphin have bagged this 3 times in the last 4 years and 2nd in one of them.

Dropping in class and trip should go well.

Sorry not much of a write up, grafting and posting this off my phone.

Good luck today everyone!
Take care
Paul.
 
the bronze cup ayr....155

shortlist

3 from betting
hadaj..............up in real weight up in class ,best win 7k......needs to improve
aspan sam.....up in real weight,up in class,best win 5k ......needs to improve,but looks as if it can
shady mcCoy......down in real weight,up in class,best 5k....needs to improve

3 from days since ran
hadaj
ashpan sam
bondi beach boy........up in real weight,up in class,best 4k....needs to improve

horse from a list
farlow.............down in real weight up a lot in class best win 8k......back to its old winning mark

the 2 horses i take from these 4 are ashpan sam and farlow
farlow faheys horse but has not won for him yet ran in nice races all season...12k,31k,16k,31k,then dropped to 4k lto and shoots up in weight to 9st 10lbs on a tough track in a distance that,s to long newmarket 7f beat a neck by a horse who goes on to win again...so i think the form is ok i,d i think he has farlow ready for today
Farlow win and loaded place 14/1...........Les

Farlows path through the season by track type
1 flat /easy...........donc
2flat easy..............donc
3 flat/easy.............york
4flat/easy..............york
5 tough.................newmarket

back to an flat/easy track ayr
as VDW said ask the driver
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Newb 4:50 1 Magic City 2 Arnold Lane 3 Free Wheeling.

Of these three only Arnold Lane would interest me price wise. I make him the class horse in the race but the long lay off is a big worry, it may have been waiting for the better going but he does have form on better than soft. The last run reads like a prep but there is a nagging doubts about the lay off was he injured? I also have some doubts about him handling the straight track. I find this race a bit of a puzzle as races of this class usually have more runners registering on the d/base, none of the three year olds have managed it so far and I would have expected the good ones to have achieved that this far into the season. I was tempted with Arnold Lane but I'm leaving the race alone.

Be Lucky
 
Pressed for time today so just the bare bones.

Ayr 2.50 a 2yo stakes where Stopwatch is used as one of the ratings for confirmation instead of RPR.
Hurryupharriet, not £class, confirmed by Stopwatch/Formcast carries the £90 bet.
 
what a winner,what a price,nice one JF,paid 7.12 on B/F,it should have got you out of the alley,and even though I think the staking plan is awful....I like you :):drinks:
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top