• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Speed Test

Mlmrob, Simple Magic has recorded two very similar s/f. I would question how far SM can go as the breeding does not suggest much (unless i have missed something)one relative did win a big prize as a 6-y-o in Japan which was a h'cap ? Owner of SM states it would be nice to get a little bit of black type if we can. Owners best horse in training is Ocovango who is much better bred and so far has won a G2.

Arkle
 
Thanks Mike, will watch with interest.


Cheers Arkle, very informative.Much appreciated.


Footnote: The beauty of this board is everyone's opinion is greatly appreciated and there is some very shrewd brains here. :cool:
 
Hi Mlrob

Simple Magic is a Full Sister to Festival won a listed race 8f Ascot and was sold in 2011, John Warren Bloodstock 360,000GNS, as potential Broodmare

They might have paid over the odds though as Festivale's 2010 offspring Al Meezan has so far not done much. would they have paid that much having seen her first progeny win.

Good Luck

Chehsam
 
13/8/13

Going allowances:
Carlisle +0.55s/f (firm)
Nottingham +0.38s/f (good to firm)

4.45 Carlisle: True Pleasure +7 and Moral Issue +6

6.05 Nottingham: Ambitious Icarus +11 and Ace Master +10

I already had True Pleasure in my list at +10 and she is a mare who still improving.

Ambitious Icarus is entered in twice on Friday, looks like another typical Richard Guest punt.
 
The Nottingham race on August 1st looks a to follow race as that's 5 winners from just 8 runners to come out of it. The race was 2.5 secs slower than standard but Ambitious Icarus blew the start and Robbie Fitzpatrick just trotted along at the back admiring the scenery. Last night was only Ambitious Icarus's second win from 28 starts,both wins at Nottingham. I think the bird may have flown here.
 
Where now for Brave Boy. Three runs at Nottingham and figures of 66 and 69 in two of them. He finished ahead of Cable Boy on his debut, 2nd in the Richmond, and the form of that maiden looks pretty good. Surely Godolphin have to step him up in class.
 
Ace Master will be interesting if he returns to the sand where he is 6-23 as opposed to the turf 0-13. 7f at Wolves or Southwell may well be the route where he is 4-10.
 
TheBluesBrother said:
Going allowances for 31/7/13.

Galway: -1.10s/f (heavy)
Goodwood: -0.03s/f (good)
Redcar: +0.33s/f (good to firm)
Sandown: -0.11s/f (good)
Leicester: straight 0.00s/f (good), round -0.20s/f (good)

The official going for Leicester was given as soft, if this was the case Michael Blanshard who in my book has to be the worst trainer
in the British Isles would have improved his winner Bajan Bear by +50, I don't think so :minigun:

Hugh Taylor mentioned one day on At the Races, that at Leicester you can have two different going allowances on the same part of the racecourse, after yesterdays
meeting I have too agree with him, I struggled to make sense of the going :minigun:

Peter Chapple-Hyam is back, and his 2yo winner at Sandown Voice Of A Leader didn't even get out of 2nd gear to earn a speed figure of 69,
I just cannot see any 2yo lowering his colours on his next run, he was that impressive :D

Morocco +6
Willow Beck +10
Running Deer +8
Click to expand...


WILLOW BECK WINS OFF JUST 5LBS HIGHER. CHEERS MIKE :handgestures-thumbup:
 
Your welcome Rob.

I am just having a lively discussion on my old forum with a guy who thinks I am a tit (possibly he is right), not bad for somebody
who gave 3 individual tips, Christmas tip won 13/2, challenged to a tipping contest tipped the 50/1 winner and gave my highest ever improver
at +22 who won at 9/1 :cool:

He reckons my method to calculating speed figures is flawed, you just cannot please some people :minigun:

I even uploaded by 2013 calculations to show him what I do every day.

Code: 
http://tinyurl.com/lad34ps

Column H is the going allowance adjustment, and column N is hidden (this is the speed figures prior to any adjustment.

To know the going for any meeting look at column H and then refer to the going allowance tables below.

AW going allowance table:
Fast +0.50s/f
Stand/Fast +0.18s/f to +0.40s/f
Standard -0.15s/f to +0.15s/f
Stand/Slow -0.48s/f to -0.18s/f
Slow -0.70s/f to -0.50s/f

Turf going allowance table:
Firm +0.55s/f to +0.63s/f
Good/firm +0.20s/f to +0.53s/f
Good -0.25s/f to +0.18s/f
Good/soft -0.55s/f to -0.28s/f
Soft -1.00s/f to -0.58s/f
Heavy -1.58s/f to -1.03s/f

Flat Ratings 2012/2013:
Code: 
http://tinyurl.com/7vstzt4
England ,Ireland, France & UAE

Standard Times :
Code: 
 http://tinyurl.com/aupt4ub
Updated 22/5/13
 
TheBluesBrother said:
I am just having a lively discussion on my old forum with a guy who thinks I am a tit ......He reckons my method to calculating speed figures is flawed
Click to expand...

I think it is a terminology thing Mike.

You said that the official going at Newcastle on 7th August 2013 was out by upto 80lb per furlong and then gave an example of a 7f race

Example of a 7f race with 2.22lbs lbs per length.

at -0.58s/f speed figure = 132
at 0.36 speed figure = 54

Difference = 78 or 78lbs.

I don't think your protaganist is not saying that your is method flawed but arguing that you cannot say the going is out by 78lbs per furlong, but is happy that it is out by 78lbs. After all if it was out by 78lbs per furlong then for a 7f race it would equate to a difference in rating of 546 ie 7 x 78

All the Best

AR
 
Talented Kid who ran in the 7.30 at Windsor smashed my class 5 par of 68 by 19lbs earning a speed figure of 87,
he is entered in at Wolverhampton on the 22nd, if he takes up the gig he will be a very short price :cool:

7.50 Wolverhampton: Nordikhab +14 (no entries)

I had an interest in the 8.50 Wolverhampton last night, because in my private list I had Unex Michelangelo +14 who won easily by 5 lengths easing down,
he is entered in again on the 22nd at Wolverhampton, even with a penalty he should win again before the handicapper clobbers him :cool:

Silly Billy +14 who beat Unex Michelangelo in his previous race by a shd, has an entry at Redcar on the 24th and he should be of interest :cool:
 
Hi Rob,

Men Don't Cry goes tomorrow at Lingfield , I think you suggested to back it until it lost over 12f last month?

AR
 
The nursery tomorrow has Coulsty, rating 70. The Leicester race in which he achieved it has worked out well and the second has finished fourth in a listed race. However,he was third favourite for the Norfolk behind No Nay Never and the form of the race is rock solid with listed and group winners coming out of the race. Sayyerr was just 2ls in front of him and he went on to win the Richmond Stakes.
What is Coulsty doing in a Nursery?

Jazz 67 and Instant Attraction 65 are the only two horses in the race to get near him on the clock.

His 4l third to Bunker last time at Deauville is very good form.

He has an entry in the Gimcrack on Saturday and the Champage Stakes at Doncaster.

Coulsty is a Group horse in a nursery.
 
arkroyal said:
Hi Rob,

Men Don't Cry goes tomorrow at Lingfield , I think you suggested to back it until it lost over 12f last month?

AR
Click to expand...


Yeah Ark, he loos a good thing tomorrow off 53 after recording a 61 last time.
 
20/8/13.

6.50 Brighton: Marju´s Quest +8 and Mizyen +5 (No Entries)

Marju´s Quest still looks to be ahead of the handicapper, and the runner up Mizyen was unlucky to bump into an improver in Marju´s Quest
and should be winning soon :cool:

Sligo has introduced a new distance of 7f (6f200y), I had to do an adjustment to compile the speed figures, the official going was given as soft
I calculated that the going was riding at +0.65s/f (firm) :minigun:
 
mlmrob said:
Cheers Mike.
The Grey Gatsby tomorrow. ;)
Will prove better than the 66 he recorded at York last time
Click to expand...

When The Grey Gatsby ran at York on the 13th July, I had the going that day for the sprints at +0.15s/f (good) and The Grey Gatsby earned a speed figure of 66

Yesterday the going was super quick at +0.42s/f (good to firm with firm patches), the horses were kicking up dust on the bends, The Grey Gatsby earned a speed figure of 65

Looking at the knee action of The Great Gatsby, the going being on the quick side certainly didn't suit him :minigun:

Without any overnight rain at York, the going should be on the firm side today, I expect most of the races to run under standard 8)

Turf going allowance table:
Firm +0.55s/f to +0.63s/f
Good/firm +0.20s/f to +0.53s/f
Good -0.25s/f to +0.18s/f
Good/soft -0.55s/f to -0.28s/f
Soft -1.00s/f to -0.58s/f
Heavy -1.58s/f to -1.03s/f
 
Hi Mr B

Looking at The Grand Dam would support your analysis of The Great Gatsby as the progeny seems better with at least some give in in the ground or AW Surface.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
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