Statting Island
- Thread starter mlmrob
- Start date
mlmrob
Sire
LLEWELLYN 4.50 THIRSK
Llewellyn bids for a repeat in the race he won last year, a race his trainer has an excellent record in, 112 from just three runners. Llewellyn is very well in at the weights here and his record at Thirsk reads 122. He was second in a 0-85 here in April behind Yair Hill. He had Chester Aristocrat, Mont Ras, Solar Spirit and Beau Mistral behind him who have all won races this summer. He was second to 87 rated Balty Boys last time just getting 5lbs and had 80 and 90 rated horses behind him at Beverley. Back on a sharp track, all 3 wins on a sharp track, in a small field, 2-4 in fields of 7 or less runners, within 7 days of his last race, 2-5, he must take all the beating here.
Above The Stars has her fourth run for Conor Dore after claiming her out of a seller. She has never been put into any of her three races so far for the yard. She is reasonably weighted but she is 5lbs worse off with Llewellyn than she would be in a handicap. Her win in a Leicester seller was at long odds on as she beat horses rated in their 50s. She did win a handicap in May off 71 but her yard are just 1-20 since June and 2-29 at Thirsk.
Commanche Raider got out paced in a 0-65 last time at Catterick and is 0-15 over 6f. He is 0-14 on a flat track and is 4lbs worse off with Llewellyn as opposed to a handicap.
Red Cape was fourth in a 0-75 the other day, only two horses rated above 70 in the race. He has won many times under these conditions but he is nearly a stone worse off with Llewellyn as opposed to a handicap.
Roland made all in a 0-65 in June but has struggled off his new mark in two races. He was tailed off in a seller last time, second favourite; it may have been the ground. He is 0-4 on a straight track and is another one worse off with Llewellyn at the weights.
Colbyor is 2-27 yet continues to go off at short prices. He is 0-7 on good to soft or quicker and only has a poor maiden win to his name on turf. Worse off at the weights with Llewellyn.
Partner is 0-14 for Noel Wilson. He has never placed in four runs in cheekpieces. Wilson has saddled four winners from his last 100 runners and he is currently on a losing run of 19.
Conclusion: Llewellyn is the second best horse on official ratings here yet doesn’t have to give any weight away. He can race from the front or just off the pace. Dandy Nicholls last three runners have all finished second but his record in sellers at this track is excellent, 9-28. That improves to 8-12 when they are in the first two in the betting. The last six have all won. I expect Llewellyn to go one better in what is clearly a target for the horse.
Llewellyn bids for a repeat in the race he won last year, a race his trainer has an excellent record in, 112 from just three runners. Llewellyn is very well in at the weights here and his record at Thirsk reads 122. He was second in a 0-85 here in April behind Yair Hill. He had Chester Aristocrat, Mont Ras, Solar Spirit and Beau Mistral behind him who have all won races this summer. He was second to 87 rated Balty Boys last time just getting 5lbs and had 80 and 90 rated horses behind him at Beverley. Back on a sharp track, all 3 wins on a sharp track, in a small field, 2-4 in fields of 7 or less runners, within 7 days of his last race, 2-5, he must take all the beating here.
Above The Stars has her fourth run for Conor Dore after claiming her out of a seller. She has never been put into any of her three races so far for the yard. She is reasonably weighted but she is 5lbs worse off with Llewellyn than she would be in a handicap. Her win in a Leicester seller was at long odds on as she beat horses rated in their 50s. She did win a handicap in May off 71 but her yard are just 1-20 since June and 2-29 at Thirsk.
Commanche Raider got out paced in a 0-65 last time at Catterick and is 0-15 over 6f. He is 0-14 on a flat track and is 4lbs worse off with Llewellyn as opposed to a handicap.
Red Cape was fourth in a 0-75 the other day, only two horses rated above 70 in the race. He has won many times under these conditions but he is nearly a stone worse off with Llewellyn as opposed to a handicap.
Roland made all in a 0-65 in June but has struggled off his new mark in two races. He was tailed off in a seller last time, second favourite; it may have been the ground. He is 0-4 on a straight track and is another one worse off with Llewellyn at the weights.
Colbyor is 2-27 yet continues to go off at short prices. He is 0-7 on good to soft or quicker and only has a poor maiden win to his name on turf. Worse off at the weights with Llewellyn.
Partner is 0-14 for Noel Wilson. He has never placed in four runs in cheekpieces. Wilson has saddled four winners from his last 100 runners and he is currently on a losing run of 19.
Conclusion: Llewellyn is the second best horse on official ratings here yet doesn’t have to give any weight away. He can race from the front or just off the pace. Dandy Nicholls last three runners have all finished second but his record in sellers at this track is excellent, 9-28. That improves to 8-12 when they are in the first two in the betting. The last six have all won. I expect Llewellyn to go one better in what is clearly a target for the horse.
mick
Sire
chilled said:
I think this is a good point with all three previous wins on soft.This is one of the aspects which makes profiling so difficult as the best rating i have for the horse was in defeat on official g-f ground at this course in May.He has also run other decent races on todays good going.So if i was interested in backing the horse i think todays going while not ideal would not prevent the horse from winning this easier race.
The way i would play this is to factor it into my min price.Llewellyn is currently a best priced 7/4.
mlmrob
Sire
Cheers guys. Was going to go to Thirsk today but so busy this morning time unfortunately caught up with me.
The going itself isn't a problem imo. he has been btn a neck on good ground where he got mugged on the line. He was beaten 0.75ls by an 85 rated horse on good to firm keeping on at the finish.
Sorry maybe should have made that clearer.
The going itself isn't a problem imo. he has been btn a neck on good ground where he got mugged on the line. He was beaten 0.75ls by an 85 rated horse on good to firm keeping on at the finish.
Sorry maybe should have made that clearer.
Franktheform
Mare
mlmrob said:"If you lie down with dogs you get fleas"
Luckily it's the same point one would lose backing in group races.
every dog has his day mate and yours im sure is only around the bend
I really enjoy these write ups and thread to you keep a running total mate?
Regards
Paul aka Frank
formtheory
Stallion
Hi Rob!
Unlucky today mate, I followed you in after reading your brilliant write up!
You really are in a league of your own with the obvious effort and research you put into a race, you can't win them all but putting that much hard work in you are going to get paid in the long term!
Have a good weekend,
Take care
Paul.
Unlucky today mate, I followed you in after reading your brilliant write up!
You really are in a league of your own with the obvious effort and research you put into a race, you can't win them all but putting that much hard work in you are going to get paid in the long term!
Have a good weekend,
Take care
Paul.
mlmrob
Sire
Cheers Paul.
SILVER DIXIE 5.00 SANDOWN
Silver Dixie bumped into some useful sorts a couple of runs back in a 0-90, Retirement Plan, was entered for the St Leger and Goodwood Mirage who goes for the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury on the 21st September finished first and second. Silver Dixie finished ahead of Ambleside, Statutory and Bee Jay Kay who have all franked the form. Silver Dixie last time run in a 0-85 where he bumped into Morpheus who was winning his third race of the season off 85. The drop into a 0-80 and most of his rivals look pretty exposed. This stiff mile should be right up his street. The form of the Noseda stable is a little concerning, 0-26, but 11 of those have placed. Noseda is 8-30 in 3yo handicaps at Sandown, 5-12 when they're in the first two of the betting.
Mazaheer marked his card with an excellent second to Blue Grass Prince last time, the fourth and seventh have franked the form. He looks likely to run well but John Hills is out of form, 0-31, 6 have placed. He is also 7-77 in handicaps at Sandown, 1-28 in 3yo handicaps.
Emulating steps up in grade after finishing second in a 0-75 last time over 10f. The drop back to a mile won’t affect him as much as his mark. The last time he won over a mile it was off 66 and he is 6lbs higher now. He should be thereabouts.
Aint Got A Scooby beat Sennockian Star in a 0-80 in April; Sennockian Star has won five times since. The third and fourth home have both won twice since but Aint Got A Scooby found things difficult off his new mark until last time when he got mugged by Quest For More. He had Emulating just over a length away but is 7lbs worse off today.
Orbison won a class 5 off 68 before flopping off 7lbs higher when favourite to beat Emulating and Aint Got A Scooby. He shouldn’t turn the tables on these terms.
Starlight Symphony won a 0-80 off 71 before getting beaten a head off 74. She needs lightning fast conditions to show her best form and both her wins came against her own sex, 0-10 against the opposite sex.
Strong Conviction has conditions to suit but he was 12.5ls behind Silver Dixie last time and he shouldn’t turn the tables on 5lbs better terms. He is 0-11 off marks above 70.
Rainbow Beauty hasn’t been seen since last November and has yet to show the same level of form on turf as opposed to the artificial surfaces. Butler is 0-35 with horses returning to the track after a break of 300 days or more.
Living The Life won a class 5 maiden last year and has had a break. Osborne isn’t hurrying the filly and his record of 1-25 this season with horses returning to the track after 10 or more weeks off is discouraging.
Strictly Ballroom won on her seasonal debut on soft ground as a 2yo but has shown nothing since apart from a second to Auction in May. She is by Choisir whose progeny are 1-43 at Sandown.
Big Whiskey won his maiden at Naas on soft ground and he was a 1l third to Bartack on his debut for Ed Creighton. He was then fourth at Newmarket keeping on at the death. There is probably a race in him on soft ground but the handicapper looks in charge at present. Ed Creighton has never had a horse placed at Sandown from nine runners.
Atlantis City is the second Hannon runner and with just the one place from seven races. He might prove to better now he has been gelded. He is 1 lb out of the handicap and has been beaten 16ls, 23l sand 63ls in his three races on turf.
Conclusion: Twelve runners but only a few have a realistic chance. Susan Roy must be sick of Prince Khalid Abdulla’s colours after Silver Dixie has been beaten by two of his improving horses on his last two runs. There doesn’t appear to be anything lurking in the shadows here. There doesn’t appear to be a lot of pace and Silver Dixie could make all. It is interesting he has come here as he is in a similar race on Wednesday which looks much easier for him.
MERCERS ROW 3.05 BEVERLEY (Each Way)
A 17 runner handicap over 5f up the Westwood doesn’t usually set the pulse racing but there is cause for optimism here. Danny Tudhope is 3-14 on Mercers Row but those figures don’t reveal the fact he has rode the gelding on four occasions at Beverley winning twice and placing twice. Mercers Row is on a dangerous mark, won off 69 before, and he has pace to aim at here. He looks a good value each way bet.
SILVER DIXIE 5.00 SANDOWN
Silver Dixie bumped into some useful sorts a couple of runs back in a 0-90, Retirement Plan, was entered for the St Leger and Goodwood Mirage who goes for the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury on the 21st September finished first and second. Silver Dixie finished ahead of Ambleside, Statutory and Bee Jay Kay who have all franked the form. Silver Dixie last time run in a 0-85 where he bumped into Morpheus who was winning his third race of the season off 85. The drop into a 0-80 and most of his rivals look pretty exposed. This stiff mile should be right up his street. The form of the Noseda stable is a little concerning, 0-26, but 11 of those have placed. Noseda is 8-30 in 3yo handicaps at Sandown, 5-12 when they're in the first two of the betting.
Mazaheer marked his card with an excellent second to Blue Grass Prince last time, the fourth and seventh have franked the form. He looks likely to run well but John Hills is out of form, 0-31, 6 have placed. He is also 7-77 in handicaps at Sandown, 1-28 in 3yo handicaps.
Emulating steps up in grade after finishing second in a 0-75 last time over 10f. The drop back to a mile won’t affect him as much as his mark. The last time he won over a mile it was off 66 and he is 6lbs higher now. He should be thereabouts.
Aint Got A Scooby beat Sennockian Star in a 0-80 in April; Sennockian Star has won five times since. The third and fourth home have both won twice since but Aint Got A Scooby found things difficult off his new mark until last time when he got mugged by Quest For More. He had Emulating just over a length away but is 7lbs worse off today.
Orbison won a class 5 off 68 before flopping off 7lbs higher when favourite to beat Emulating and Aint Got A Scooby. He shouldn’t turn the tables on these terms.
Starlight Symphony won a 0-80 off 71 before getting beaten a head off 74. She needs lightning fast conditions to show her best form and both her wins came against her own sex, 0-10 against the opposite sex.
Strong Conviction has conditions to suit but he was 12.5ls behind Silver Dixie last time and he shouldn’t turn the tables on 5lbs better terms. He is 0-11 off marks above 70.
Rainbow Beauty hasn’t been seen since last November and has yet to show the same level of form on turf as opposed to the artificial surfaces. Butler is 0-35 with horses returning to the track after a break of 300 days or more.
Living The Life won a class 5 maiden last year and has had a break. Osborne isn’t hurrying the filly and his record of 1-25 this season with horses returning to the track after 10 or more weeks off is discouraging.
Strictly Ballroom won on her seasonal debut on soft ground as a 2yo but has shown nothing since apart from a second to Auction in May. She is by Choisir whose progeny are 1-43 at Sandown.
Big Whiskey won his maiden at Naas on soft ground and he was a 1l third to Bartack on his debut for Ed Creighton. He was then fourth at Newmarket keeping on at the death. There is probably a race in him on soft ground but the handicapper looks in charge at present. Ed Creighton has never had a horse placed at Sandown from nine runners.
Atlantis City is the second Hannon runner and with just the one place from seven races. He might prove to better now he has been gelded. He is 1 lb out of the handicap and has been beaten 16ls, 23l sand 63ls in his three races on turf.
Conclusion: Twelve runners but only a few have a realistic chance. Susan Roy must be sick of Prince Khalid Abdulla’s colours after Silver Dixie has been beaten by two of his improving horses on his last two runs. There doesn’t appear to be anything lurking in the shadows here. There doesn’t appear to be a lot of pace and Silver Dixie could make all. It is interesting he has come here as he is in a similar race on Wednesday which looks much easier for him.
MERCERS ROW 3.05 BEVERLEY (Each Way)
A 17 runner handicap over 5f up the Westwood doesn’t usually set the pulse racing but there is cause for optimism here. Danny Tudhope is 3-14 on Mercers Row but those figures don’t reveal the fact he has rode the gelding on four occasions at Beverley winning twice and placing twice. Mercers Row is on a dangerous mark, won off 69 before, and he has pace to aim at here. He looks a good value each way bet.
mick
Sire
mlmrob said:
Good morning rob.Although i will not be betting on the race i do agree with your above.A reproduction of the form shown 4 runs back Nott july 6th would make the horse the winner here.My figs and profiling suggest that during his next 3 runs he was not placed to win.The current 14/1 offered is imo far better than his chance.
mlmrob
Sire
GABRIALS GIFT 4.35 BRIGHTON
Gabrials Gift run well in a 0-85 last time for which he was made co- favourite. He fly leapt the start and stayed on at the finish in the grey horse race at Newmarket. They finished in a heap and already one of the co favourites has come out and won. Before that he was made favourite for a 0-75 at Haydock and didn’t show. He was upset in the stalls that day and the horse raced alone on the stands side and it is form best ignored. Before that he reared in stalls and lost all chance at the start. This has been the picture for most of this season but he did win a 0-70 off 65 in June under Jim Crowley and Jim is back on board today. David Simcock has a fantastic record at Brighton 26-83. However, that improves to 23-54 when his charges are in the first three of the betting. The last two seasons have been productive 8-18. It is interesting that Crowley who has a 25% strike rate for this yard has only ever ridden a rag for the yard at Brighton. This will be run to suit as there are three or four who like to lead here. Conditions are perfect.
Red Larkspur has never won on turf, 0-8 with just one place and her two wins were in fillies’ only races. She has never placed in three races against colts. She is racing within her grade and Hughes has won on her before but she is 0-6 on undulating tracks.
Jinker Noble won a 0-70 off 70 last time and is up 4lbs and in grade here. He beat the disappointing Generalyse and six horses have already come out and failed from that race. He did win the race well but his record when returning to the track inside a month reads 0-8 with just one place. He is 0-10 off marks above 70.
Bosham is a hard puller who is not going to get his own way here but he will help set it up. He won his previous two races and is still feasibly handicapped. He makes his debut against his elders here. Willie Jarvis does well with horses making their debut against the older aged horses, 9-56 and is 1-1 in 2013. He has conditions to suit and he should run well.
Griffin Point has only ever won over 5f, 0-7 over 6f with just one place. All four of her wins have come in class 6, 0-11 in class 5.
Wheres Reilly is just 2-21 on turf and 0-7 on good to firm, though he has won on good ground. He is only 1lb higher than his win at Goodwood earlier in the summer. He is usually pretty consistent. However, Michael Attwater is just 1-65 since May and is currently on a losing run of 33.
We Have A Dream made his debut for Violet Jordan the other day and has conditions to suit today. This won’t be run to suit as he loves to front run.
Conclusion: There is plenty of pace here and that should set it up for a closer. That should suit Red Larkspur and Gabrials Gift. Given Red Larkspur’s record against colts and on turf she is passed over in favour of Gabrials Gift. If he can get his starting problems sorted he could prove to be well handicapped and he should be able to pick these off and further enhance his trainer’s record at Brighton.
TAPESTRY 4.15 CURRAGH
Tapestry has followed the path other Moyglare winners from this yard. Aiden O Brien is 6-13 in the Moyglare Stud since the turn of the century. However, that record improves to 6-9 when his runner finished first or second in the Debutante Stakes on her previous run.
Gabrials Gift run well in a 0-85 last time for which he was made co- favourite. He fly leapt the start and stayed on at the finish in the grey horse race at Newmarket. They finished in a heap and already one of the co favourites has come out and won. Before that he was made favourite for a 0-75 at Haydock and didn’t show. He was upset in the stalls that day and the horse raced alone on the stands side and it is form best ignored. Before that he reared in stalls and lost all chance at the start. This has been the picture for most of this season but he did win a 0-70 off 65 in June under Jim Crowley and Jim is back on board today. David Simcock has a fantastic record at Brighton 26-83. However, that improves to 23-54 when his charges are in the first three of the betting. The last two seasons have been productive 8-18. It is interesting that Crowley who has a 25% strike rate for this yard has only ever ridden a rag for the yard at Brighton. This will be run to suit as there are three or four who like to lead here. Conditions are perfect.
Red Larkspur has never won on turf, 0-8 with just one place and her two wins were in fillies’ only races. She has never placed in three races against colts. She is racing within her grade and Hughes has won on her before but she is 0-6 on undulating tracks.
Jinker Noble won a 0-70 off 70 last time and is up 4lbs and in grade here. He beat the disappointing Generalyse and six horses have already come out and failed from that race. He did win the race well but his record when returning to the track inside a month reads 0-8 with just one place. He is 0-10 off marks above 70.
Bosham is a hard puller who is not going to get his own way here but he will help set it up. He won his previous two races and is still feasibly handicapped. He makes his debut against his elders here. Willie Jarvis does well with horses making their debut against the older aged horses, 9-56 and is 1-1 in 2013. He has conditions to suit and he should run well.
Griffin Point has only ever won over 5f, 0-7 over 6f with just one place. All four of her wins have come in class 6, 0-11 in class 5.
Wheres Reilly is just 2-21 on turf and 0-7 on good to firm, though he has won on good ground. He is only 1lb higher than his win at Goodwood earlier in the summer. He is usually pretty consistent. However, Michael Attwater is just 1-65 since May and is currently on a losing run of 33.
We Have A Dream made his debut for Violet Jordan the other day and has conditions to suit today. This won’t be run to suit as he loves to front run.
Conclusion: There is plenty of pace here and that should set it up for a closer. That should suit Red Larkspur and Gabrials Gift. Given Red Larkspur’s record against colts and on turf she is passed over in favour of Gabrials Gift. If he can get his starting problems sorted he could prove to be well handicapped and he should be able to pick these off and further enhance his trainer’s record at Brighton.
TAPESTRY 4.15 CURRAGH
Tapestry has followed the path other Moyglare winners from this yard. Aiden O Brien is 6-13 in the Moyglare Stud since the turn of the century. However, that record improves to 6-9 when his runner finished first or second in the Debutante Stakes on her previous run.
Chesham
Sire
Hi MLrob
The Owners Stats are good
Brighton, Class DE, Race (Type) Hcaps
Dr Marwan Koukash
4 wins from 6 runs (66.7%), 2.83 A/E, Profit of £16.25 (270.8%)
11-6-113
But although I like Jim Crowley at Kempton, in Sprints at Brighton not so hot
Sprints 3 25 A/E = 0.49
Middle 8/25
If the horse gets away from the stalls, agree with you the Pace looks like a fast race and Gabrial's Gift is bred for further than sprints so should have stamina in abundance if the Pace up front collapses.
Like Mick not playing in this race but really enjoyed reading your analysis of the race and hope that you collect, only Crowley's Sprints A/E puts me off, his Middle distance Handicap Course performance looks good though.
Good Luck
Chehsam
The Owners Stats are good
Brighton, Class DE, Race (Type) Hcaps
Dr Marwan Koukash
4 wins from 6 runs (66.7%), 2.83 A/E, Profit of £16.25 (270.8%)
11-6-113
But although I like Jim Crowley at Kempton, in Sprints at Brighton not so hot
Sprints 3 25 A/E = 0.49
Middle 8/25
If the horse gets away from the stalls, agree with you the Pace looks like a fast race and Gabrial's Gift is bred for further than sprints so should have stamina in abundance if the Pace up front collapses.
Like Mick not playing in this race but really enjoyed reading your analysis of the race and hope that you collect, only Crowley's Sprints A/E puts me off, his Middle distance Handicap Course performance looks good though.
Good Luck
Chehsam