• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Statting Island

Cheers Frank :)

MINORITY INTEREST 8.05 NOTTINGHAM

Minority Interest ran well enough in a 0-70 last time to suggest this 0-60 is within his compass. He has been transformed by headgear and has wins in a first time visor and first time blinkers two runs back. In fact his record over 10f in headgear reads, 113, from just 3 races. The form of his third to Shahrazad didn’t look much at the time but the winner has since finished second off 6lbs higher. He beat previous winner Certavi before that and that horse has franked the form by winning again off 4lbs higher. He has a top apprentice booked and is the only front runner in the race. He might take a bit of pegging back.

Lightning Strike is 0-4 over 10f and both her turf wins have come at Brighton. She has raced exclusively at Brighton or on the all weather for the last 12 months. She is 4lbs higher than her last win and she is 0-5 off marks 54-56. Inexperienced jockey as well.

Market Puzzle has placed four times on eight visits to Colwick Park but he is on a losing run of 22 stretching back two years. He run quite well in a 0-55 last time. Noel Garbutt gets on well with him and he should run well without winning.

Action Front won on his racecourse debut back in May 2011 and the closest he has come to repeating the feat was a short head second at Newmarket last month over 8f. He was third to Enriching last time over 8f here. However, he has found 10f stretching him a bit, not placed in two runs, and he can be passed over.

Miss Blink is 11lbs lower than her last win back in 2011. She is 3-9 in class 6 and 4-12 over 10f. 3-6 when those two criteria are combined. So she must hold a major chance off 59 tonight. All four of her wins have come within a month of her latest race. Her yard are very quiet, 0-42 over the last 3 months.

Archelao won a 0-55 last time off 51 and has had a break. He is yet to win on turf, 0-2, but more worrying is that he is 0-11 when returning after a break of a fortnight or more with just one place.

Daniel Thomas is 1-29 on turf with the win back in 2008.

Lea Valley is a 9 race maiden and comes from a yard that is 1-33 since June.

Flash Crash is 0-7 on the flat with just one place.

Iguacu is 2lbs lower than his win at Bath last year. He tends to pick up a race a year and he does have conditions to suit. However, he is 0-13 when returning after a break of a month or more.

Royal Alcor showed nothing on his debut for Gay Kelleway the other day and races off the same mark tonight. He is 0-4 on turf with both his wins coming at Wolverhampton. He is till 3lbs higher than the last win.

Lady Tycoon is a 10 race maiden who has placed once on the all weather.

Excellent News has never placed in 9 races on the flat.

Conclusion: This is not as competitive as the numbers would suggest. Oisin Murphy is a top booking for Minority Interest especially as he has ridden for Tony Forbes a few times, saddles Excellent News. There is no pace and Minority Interest should get his own way up front. He has shown tenacity recently so it will take a good one to pass him. Miss Blink would be a massive danger if Robin Bastiman had been in better form but she should run well.
 
SALUTATION 4.50 CHESTER

Salutation comes from a yard that has a 23% strike rate with its 3yos racing against their elders when racing over 12f or further and Salutation looks to have a leading chance here. Salutation led until the final furlong last week in a similar race at Haydock and he should find this less testing track ideal. He was just run out of it in a better race than this at Goodwood two runs back and his stablemate who finished sixth has franked the form by winning next time.

Kiama Bay run in this race last year off 92 so he would look to hold a leading chance off just 84. However, Fahey has changed tactics on the horse and this will not be run to suit. He has never won in class 2, 0-9, and he has never won when returning to the track inside a fortnight, 0-4.

Communicator won this last year off 84 and is 10lbs higher. He is 0-12 off marks higher than 84 and it probably won’t be run to suit him.

Burnham steps up in grade and is 5lbs higher than his win in a class 5. He was a one paced third to Mark Johnston’s Love Marmalade last time in a weaker race than this and he is 0-5 in grades better than class 5.

Reve De Nuit is 0-23 on good or slower ground and just 1-10 over 12f, 0-8 on turf. He won a class 2 over 10f three years ago off 86 and Joey Haynes is 6-29 for Elaine Burke. He should run his race provided the ground is on the faster side of good.

Scatter Dice was favourite for this race last year and was beaten 35ls. She is the second Johnston runner and has been known to lead. She is dropping in the handicap but she may well need some more help from the handicapper.

Conclusion: The key to this race is the pace. Salutation is drawn widest in 6 so may well have to bide his time here. That would leave the lead to Scatter Dice and if he can get on her tail the Johnston pair will carve this up with a very slow pace. If Salutation leads, Fanning is a master a setting soft fractions. I can’t see anything coming from off the pace and the main danger is probably Reve De Nuit who can race prominently.
 
Hi MLrob

Agree with you on this one and also with regards the pace. The Johnston Pair should grab the first positions on the rail and even better if Salutation holds the lead as Scatter Dice will hold up the those behind. Either way Salutation looks good.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Cheers Chesham, never got on the front end.

GOTTCHER 4.30 MUSSELBURGH

Gottcher has his third race for Keith Dalgleish and he may well take a bit of catching today. Two runs back he was third to Red Baron in a 0-80 over course and distance only giving in inside the final furlong. That was Red Baron’s third win of the campaign and he was made favourite for a 0-90 on his next run. Gottcher then went to Catterick for an awful race on soft ground. He looked like he was going to collect but he got mugged close home. Gottcher hasn’t won for two years but he is 15lbs lower than his last winning mark.

Quality Art will be popular but he is worse off at the weights with Gottcher. He was just over 3ls behind Gottcher at Catterick but he is 5lbs worse off today. He then went on to win a 0-65 off 56, his first win for two years. Richard Guest had managed to get his handicap mark down from 86 to record his first win for the yard but he didn’t follow that up off 62 at Nottingham. He came to win his race but faded out of it and that may well be as good as he is now.

Bakers Pursuit will find a race and she was second to Amelia Jay when she didn’t get the breaks. She makes her debut against older horses today. Goldie has an awful record with 3yos making their debut against their elders, 1-39, but the winner was just in July. She is a hold up horse and the way this will be run won’t suit her.

Busy Bimbo is a 37 race maiden from a yard that has had two winners from their last 100 runners.

Here Now And Why hasn’t won the turf for two years and is 2lbs above that mark. He did win at Wolverhampton last year off 55 but he is generally disappointing. He does have conditions to suit and he should run well without winning.

Cayman Fox is 3-61 and last won three years ago. He is 0-12 at Musselburgh and 0-13 on good to firm and 0-11, never placed, when returning after a break of 30 days or more.

Miss Bossy Boots has shown very little in six races over 7f/8f. The drop back to 5f should suit. She is by Ishiguru whose progeny strike at around 10% over 5f at Musselburgh but she is 10lbs out of the handicap here.

Conclusion: Cayman Fox usually leads but doesn’t keep up the gallop and he may well not get the lead today with Gottcher in the field. It is likely Gottcher will kick at the elbow and have these left flat footed. He is very well handicapped and must go close.
 
Hi rob great write up and for what its worth Gottcher was my only possible for today.I swerved going in at the 7/2 offered yesterday because i was concerned about a possible going change.The ground has remained ok but i have now decided to swerve the wager ,there is nothing in the opposition which causes concern on known form so i cannot even tell you why.Just a feeling that something is not right.This certainly will not stop the horse from winning and if so i will be well pleased to shout it home for you. :)
 
Chesham said:
Hi MLrob

Agree with you on this one and also with regards the pace. The Johnston Pair should grab the first positions on the rail and even better if Salutation holds the lead as Scatter Dice will hold up the those behind. Either way Salutation looks good.

Good Luck

Chesham
Click to expand...

Scatter dice was my possible for this race but after much pondering i decided to swerve,so was relieved to see her not win at the 14/1. Wrongston will probably turn her out quickly she is well hcapped and overdue.? :)
 
Cheers Mick. Getting a handle on Johnston horses is a skill in itself.


CAPE FACTOR 4.40 LINGFIELD

Rae Guest does well with his handicap debutants on the all weather, 7-20, and that record improves when they go off at single figure odds,6-9. What is interesting that two of the three horses that lost won their next race. So Guest is clearly astute at getting horses well handicapped. The yard have done well with their 2yos this year, 5-13, 5-9 at single figure odds and 3 of the last 5 runners have won, 3-4 at single figure odds.
Cape Factor won her maiden over 6f here showing determination to get her head in front. She is closely related to Hidden Belief who has won over 7f and Benzanno who has won over 8f, so the step up in distance will suit. Catlin is 2-2 on Guest handicap debutants. He is 2-4 on 2yos this season, 2-2 at single figure odds.
 
mick said:
Hi rob great write up and for what its worth Gottcher was my only possible for today.I swerved going in at the 7/2 offered yesterday because i was concerned about a possible going change.The ground has remained ok but i have now decided to swerve the wager ,there is nothing in the opposition which causes concern on known form so i cannot even tell you why.Just a feeling that something is not right.This certainly will not stop the horse from winning and if so i will be well pleased to shout it home for you. :)
Click to expand...

Well done rob nice winner,i still cannot workout why i decided to swerve but am well pleased for you. :)
 
Cheers Mick/Larry.

It's a strange thing that Mick. I do it quite a lot. There is no logical sense to the decision its just an inner feeling.Mind you, like yourself, I have saved a few bob by it so when one does win it really doesn't matter.

Onwards and Upwards :)
 
you know my opinion of your write-ups,hard work and not least,selections Rob,you do yourself and the forum proud,:drinks:
 
mlmrob said:
Cheers Mick/Larry.

It's a strange thing that Mick. I do it quite a lot. There is no logical sense to the decision its just an inner feeling.Mind you, like yourself, I have saved a few bob by it so when one does win it really doesn't matter.

Onwards and Upwards :)
Click to expand...

Well said mate,i call it the perception factor.I don't always take note but have likewise learned not to ignore.What i feel its really down to is subconscious experience.If we could understand how to utilise this correctly then we could all improve our results.

The workings of the mind when applied to our betting is a fascinating subject which seldom gets discussed and thats a pity because its very relevant to one of my waffles that before you can beat the fiddlers you first need to learn how to beat yourself.

A good example being the negativity which can eat away at you during a negative correction.?
 
I had one on Tuesday with Artful Lady. I usually get that feeling with Brighton but all the facts in front of me said back it, the mind said don't. I take a lot of notice of my mind. I don't understand my brain that well but it knows for some reason. :king:
 
A good example being the negativity which can eat away at you during a negative correction.?

That's a belter because I get mentally torturted with negative corrections. I used to ignore it and pay for the ignorance.
 
mlmrob said:
A good example being the negativity which can eat away at you during a negative correction.?

That's a belter because I get mentally torturted with negative corrections. I used to ignore it and pay for the ignorance.
Click to expand...

This year its been the reverse for myself as i took too much notice and payed for it.I have fewer but larger bets and my view on profit is to maximise gains with miniumn risk to my capital.So i find betting 1pt win singles for a year at a time best suits.

I work bloody hard at what i do and had become used to being in front and reinvesting from profit not capital at an early stage of the year.For example last year my third bet was a 7/1 winner in Jan and thereafter the losers where always payed for from my ytd profits.

This year i got my comeuppance my first bet got chinned at 9/1 and some of my subsequent wagers were running like stuffed pigs.I knew i was backing them for the same good reasons as the winners but i did not handle the situation well. I let the negativity affect my judgement and started taking the easy out of swerving difficult calls some of which won at big prices which of course further compounds the problem.

By the end of May i was 12pts down and frankly in a sorry state.Then my next two wagers won at 4/1 and 12/1 and suddenly
some of my juice and confidence started to return. (thank goodness) But a good example of the fragile line we walk and how easy it is to let a short term downdraw affect your long term gains.
 
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