Tissues from Ratings
- Thread starter Jackform
- Start date
Jackform
Mare
It it worth compiling ratings or is it best left to the pros? I always console myself that at least I know where the info is coming from, so since thlate 70's I have followed Prof. Frank George's advice ref the factores to include, that are in order of merit -class, hcap, time, weight, recent form, distance, odds with the going only considered when negative. I rate each factor to get an overall rating for each runner and then convert the ratings into odds. This is how the Lud 3.50 looks today:
1. 11 5/1 (Betfair market at 3.15pm 6.8)
2. 9 13/2 (26)
3. 15 3/1 (2.82) Grandioso
4. 3 50/1 (34)
5. 5 15/1 (10)
6. 4 25/1 (10.5)
7. 15 3/1 (4.3) Valmari
8. 8 8/1 (40)
Timeform goes 7, 3, 1
Betfair Market cut-off for true mathematical odds (7/1) indicates winner from3, 7, 1
What do I think? Grandioso looks fancied, Valmari is so-so (and I don't like females versus males)
1. 11 5/1 (Betfair market at 3.15pm 6.8)
2. 9 13/2 (26)
3. 15 3/1 (2.82) Grandioso
4. 3 50/1 (34)
5. 5 15/1 (10)
6. 4 25/1 (10.5)
7. 15 3/1 (4.3) Valmari
8. 8 8/1 (40)
Timeform goes 7, 3, 1
Betfair Market cut-off for true mathematical odds (7/1) indicates winner from3, 7, 1
What do I think? Grandioso looks fancied, Valmari is so-so (and I don't like females versus males)
these two tools are useful.
http://ozracetools.com/modules.php?name ... s_To_Price
http://ozracetools.com/modules.php?name ... Calculator
http://ozracetools.com/modules.php?name ... s_To_Price
http://ozracetools.com/modules.php?name ... Calculator
Jackform
Mare
This thread has gone rather quiet but that's the way of things and I will keep on in the hope that it's being mulled over 
. If anyone would like to study Prof. Frank George's methods you are welcome to my detailed zip file ( he was a real prof by the way - head of cyberentics at Brunel university so he could crunch numbers). Enough of that, today I have rated the Hun 2.40:
Huntingdon 2.40 by my trundling odds
1. 5 16/1 (betfair 10am 15) (ozracetools for comparison 15)
2. 12 4/1 (8.6) (6.5) Sunny Ledgend G?
3. 4 25/1 (11) (19)
4. 3 50/1 (15.5) (25)
5. 6 12/1 (9.2) (13) Ballypatrick
6. 5 16/1 (21) (15) G?
7. 3 50/1 (50) (25)
8. 4 25/1 (15) (19) G?
9. 4 25/1 (28) !19) G?
10. 16 11/4 (3.9) (5) Arbeo D?
11. 8 15/2 (15.5) 9.5)
12. 5 16/1 (70) (15) G?
What do I think? It is said runnesr need speed and stamina around this flat track so perhaps Timeformwill give it to us. Nothing in the D column except for Sunny Ledgend, but G?
Timeform goes 10, 5, 2
Betfair market 10am indicates winner from 1, 2, 3, 5, 10 (11/1 being the cut-off point for true mathematical odds) Ballyhilty Bridge (Henderson/Brennan) down at the bottom of the hcap mainly gets his rating from a drop in the weights but shouldn't be enough.
Arbeo is currently being supported. Ballypatrick also has some support and looks OK at the weights.
. If anyone would like to study Prof. Frank George's methods you are welcome to my detailed zip file ( he was a real prof by the way - head of cyberentics at Brunel university so he could crunch numbers). Enough of that, today I have rated the Hun 2.40:Huntingdon 2.40 by my trundling odds
1. 5 16/1 (betfair 10am 15) (ozracetools for comparison 15)
2. 12 4/1 (8.6) (6.5) Sunny Ledgend G?
3. 4 25/1 (11) (19)
4. 3 50/1 (15.5) (25)
5. 6 12/1 (9.2) (13) Ballypatrick
6. 5 16/1 (21) (15) G?
7. 3 50/1 (50) (25)
8. 4 25/1 (15) (19) G?
9. 4 25/1 (28) !19) G?
10. 16 11/4 (3.9) (5) Arbeo D?
11. 8 15/2 (15.5) 9.5)
12. 5 16/1 (70) (15) G?
What do I think? It is said runnesr need speed and stamina around this flat track so perhaps Timeformwill give it to us. Nothing in the D column except for Sunny Ledgend, but G?
Timeform goes 10, 5, 2
Betfair market 10am indicates winner from 1, 2, 3, 5, 10 (11/1 being the cut-off point for true mathematical odds) Ballyhilty Bridge (Henderson/Brennan) down at the bottom of the hcap mainly gets his rating from a drop in the weights but shouldn't be enough.
Arbeo is currently being supported. Ballypatrick also has some support and looks OK at the weights.
Jackform
Mare
Let's hear it for Kevin 
he got me here today, technopratt that I am. It may not have been worth it with the race I have to offer as Armedandangerous being taken out has rather spoiled it.
Newcastle 3.00 my ratings proced up.
1. non-runner
2. 9 6/1 (betfair market 1345pm 5.3) D? Weight? Up 16lbs which looks too much today
3. 11 7/2 (5.3) Tipsy Dara - good recent form, touch up in the weights? Female versus males?
4. 7 13/1 (13)
5. 11 7/2 (13)
6. 16 6/4 (5.6) Overyou (edit 3.25pm. Horse is a mare and I missed that as it is a negative for me)
7. 6 25/1 (9.4) D?
8. 12 11/4 (5.1) D? (edit 3.25pm. Market did come for Beau Dandy making it SP Fav in the end, and it won well).
Edit 3.25pm. Why do I flag up females versus males? The following is a paragraph from an article with stats that I have on file. On AW tracks they claim just 6% strike-rate for fillies, 7% for mares against males.
"There should be some good bets to be had on the betting exchanges by laying fillies. Owners, trainers and punters are prejudiced when a female jockey is onboard - they consider 'girls' to be too weak, and yet they are quite happy to let their money ride on a female horse. Even if you try and explain to them that a gender bias exists, which is as strong as a draw bias, they would still not believe it and would carry on betting fillies because they have the 'best form', or speed rating."
What do I think? Newcastle with stiffish fences and an uphill finish on heavy going over 3 miles, gonna be a slog and stamina is the name of the game.
Timeform goes 5, 6, 3.
Betfair market at 1.45pm indicates winner from 2, 3, 6, 8.
Overtoyou ticks the most boxes but that is not reflected in the current market. Tipsy Dara if they come for that could be the one as the Alexander's will be trying. Beau Dandy has gone down in the weights and that could help his chances but no real market support.
he got me here today, technopratt that I am. It may not have been worth it with the race I have to offer as Armedandangerous being taken out has rather spoiled it.Newcastle 3.00 my ratings proced up.
1. non-runner
2. 9 6/1 (betfair market 1345pm 5.3) D? Weight? Up 16lbs which looks too much today
3. 11 7/2 (5.3) Tipsy Dara - good recent form, touch up in the weights? Female versus males?
4. 7 13/1 (13)
5. 11 7/2 (13)
6. 16 6/4 (5.6) Overyou (edit 3.25pm. Horse is a mare and I missed that as it is a negative for me)
7. 6 25/1 (9.4) D?
8. 12 11/4 (5.1) D? (edit 3.25pm. Market did come for Beau Dandy making it SP Fav in the end, and it won well).
Edit 3.25pm. Why do I flag up females versus males? The following is a paragraph from an article with stats that I have on file. On AW tracks they claim just 6% strike-rate for fillies, 7% for mares against males.
"There should be some good bets to be had on the betting exchanges by laying fillies. Owners, trainers and punters are prejudiced when a female jockey is onboard - they consider 'girls' to be too weak, and yet they are quite happy to let their money ride on a female horse. Even if you try and explain to them that a gender bias exists, which is as strong as a draw bias, they would still not believe it and would carry on betting fillies because they have the 'best form', or speed rating."
What do I think? Newcastle with stiffish fences and an uphill finish on heavy going over 3 miles, gonna be a slog and stamina is the name of the game.
Timeform goes 5, 6, 3.
Betfair market at 1.45pm indicates winner from 2, 3, 6, 8.
Overtoyou ticks the most boxes but that is not reflected in the current market. Tipsy Dara if they come for that could be the one as the Alexander's will be trying. Beau Dandy has gone down in the weights and that could help his chances but no real market support.
#5 Royal Mackintosh tops my ratings for this race. Tipsy Dara next then Overyou.
Jackform
Mare
Tissues from ratings is the heading for this thread but it is rather a misnomer it should read, 'Check the Market Against the Tissue' although obviosly you need a tissue in the first instance. You could just check the market for those within the true mathematical odds aginst the tissue and in many races you would get quite close. For my tissue today that would be Rouge Et Blanc and Golden Chieftain, that is if you believe as I do through experience that you never achieve even fair odds, which my tissue represents. The reason being that we are not in the loop of owners, trainers, bookmakers that internecine network closed to most of us 'mug', 'plebs', 'canon fodder' I mean you can see where I stand (mind you I don't suppose anyone reads this stuff, me letting off steam, so we'll just keep calm and carry on).
Exeter 3.30 by my ratings.
A testing track at this time of year rising to the finish over half-a-mile with a run in of 170 yards, so on todays soft going a weight advantage could be critical.
1. 5 16/1 (Betfair market at 9.30am 30) Coming from Cheltenham but up 25lbs?
2. 13 5/1 (9) Bally Legend. Not too bad at the weight.
3. 3 35/1 (11.5) Weight?
4. 8 9/1 (8.3) Golden Chieftain
5. 6 13/1 (12.5)
6. 10 7/1 (12)
7. non-runner
8. 7 11/1 (23)
9. 3 35/1 (70) Going?
10. 2 66/1 (23)
11. 16 7/2 (3.7) Rouge Et Blanc. Well favoured at the weights, just has to do te course and get the D.
12. 7 11/1 (48)
13. 3 35/1 (12.5) D?
Timeform goes 11, 2, 4.
Betfair market at 9.30am indicates nos 2, 3, 4, 6, 11 within true mathematical odds.
What do I think? Not a betting race as Rouge Et Blanc is too short opposite the risk.
(mind you I don't suppose anyone reads this stuff, me letting off steam, so we'll just keep calm and carry on).Exeter 3.30 by my ratings.
A testing track at this time of year rising to the finish over half-a-mile with a run in of 170 yards, so on todays soft going a weight advantage could be critical.
1. 5 16/1 (Betfair market at 9.30am 30) Coming from Cheltenham but up 25lbs?
2. 13 5/1 (9) Bally Legend. Not too bad at the weight.
3. 3 35/1 (11.5) Weight?
4. 8 9/1 (8.3) Golden Chieftain
5. 6 13/1 (12.5)
6. 10 7/1 (12)
7. non-runner
8. 7 11/1 (23)
9. 3 35/1 (70) Going?
10. 2 66/1 (23)
11. 16 7/2 (3.7) Rouge Et Blanc. Well favoured at the weights, just has to do te course and get the D.
12. 7 11/1 (48)
13. 3 35/1 (12.5) D?
Timeform goes 11, 2, 4.
Betfair market at 9.30am indicates nos 2, 3, 4, 6, 11 within true mathematical odds.
What do I think? Not a betting race as Rouge Et Blanc is too short opposite the risk.
This is worth a read
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/20 ... races.html
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/20 ... races.html
Jackform
Mare
PulsatrixP, yes I support the principles espoused entirely altough I think I am ahead in some ways. I don't just study collateral form and think of a price I actually compile a chart (pen and paper as I don't do spreadshheets being a technoprat) the column headings as advised by Prof. Frank George in his book, 'A Better Bet', circa 1978. I end up with eight columns of data as I wrote before under - class, hcap, time, weight, recent form, form percentages, distance I also note any negatives for going and also draw on the flat. Each column is then scored using 'judgemental values', which is obviously subjective on my part. Beyer that American speed guru used to do this and when asked by students what he did with the chart he replied, 'I look at it' and that I what I do. Not only that I tot up the figures and come up with a tissue of fair odds as I have been posting. Some of my values may be wrong in fact whole columns may be incorrect but past experience shows I am more or less on the mark.
I will leave it there becuase there is much as you are probably aware, I have to look at the race conditions, study the market and think about any viable bet. My aim all the time is to improve the selection process, I mean if like VDW I could claim a consistent 80/90% bets strike-rate who gives stuff about odds
.
I will leave it there becuase there is much as you are probably aware, I have to look at the race conditions, study the market and think about any viable bet. My aim all the time is to improve the selection process, I mean if like VDW I could claim a consistent 80/90% bets strike-rate who gives stuff about odds
.
Jackform
Mare
Yesterday, in the end the odds for Rouge et Blanc were viable, lackaday 
- anyway on to Monday and not too bad really, so another day another dollar 
.
What more can I write about my chart filters? My guru prof. Frank (at typical nutty professor in reality) advised six filters for determining class - general level of contest ran in, courses ran on, race class, prize money, basic hcap rating, time rating. So, looking at my chart headings, in order of merit I might add:
Class (the profs definition - 'the established ability to win against the current level of opposition') -my first three chart columns then determine the class.
Weight Change from the last race, any up 10lbs or more being very negative.
Recent Form Two columns rating the last two outings and win percentage.
Distance Distance and performance in last two outings within 2 furlongs either side of current D for NH and one furlong on the Flat.
Market Rate those strongest in the market.
Any comments re. the above would be welcome. Now to todays race the Cat 4.10 by my ratings.
1. 10 10/3 (8 Betfair market 09.50) Weight? (Easterby/Costello 2nd best combo)
2. 14 85/40 (3.75) Brave Spartacus
3. 14 85/40 (4) Shangani (Williams/Coleman top combo)
4. 10 10/3 (12.5)
5. 7 5/1 (48)
6. 8 9/2 (9.2)
7. 10 10/3 (17.5) (Ellison/Cook 3rd best combo)
8. 6 6/1 (17.5)
9. 9 4/1 (11.5)
Catterick is undulating and sharp so favours front runners.
Timeform goes 4, 6, 1
Betfair market 0950 goes 2, 3, 1
My ratings go 2=, 3=, then 1=, 4=, 7=.
What do I think? Looks a pretty tight contest with those at the top end of the hcap, perhaps a watching brief to see how the market goes nearer the off. Simonside down towards the bottom mainly gets his rating from a drop in the weights from last time.
- anyway on to Monday and not too bad really, so another day another dollar .What more can I write about my chart filters? My guru prof. Frank (at typical nutty professor in reality) advised six filters for determining class - general level of contest ran in, courses ran on, race class, prize money, basic hcap rating, time rating. So, looking at my chart headings, in order of merit I might add:
Class (the profs definition - 'the established ability to win against the current level of opposition') -my first three chart columns then determine the class.
Weight Change from the last race, any up 10lbs or more being very negative.
Recent Form Two columns rating the last two outings and win percentage.
Distance Distance and performance in last two outings within 2 furlongs either side of current D for NH and one furlong on the Flat.
Market Rate those strongest in the market.
Any comments re. the above would be welcome. Now to todays race the Cat 4.10 by my ratings.
1. 10 10/3 (8 Betfair market 09.50) Weight? (Easterby/Costello 2nd best combo)
2. 14 85/40 (3.75) Brave Spartacus
3. 14 85/40 (4) Shangani (Williams/Coleman top combo)
4. 10 10/3 (12.5)
5. 7 5/1 (48)
6. 8 9/2 (9.2)
7. 10 10/3 (17.5) (Ellison/Cook 3rd best combo)
8. 6 6/1 (17.5)
9. 9 4/1 (11.5)
Catterick is undulating and sharp so favours front runners.
Timeform goes 4, 6, 1
Betfair market 0950 goes 2, 3, 1
My ratings go 2=, 3=, then 1=, 4=, 7=.
What do I think? Looks a pretty tight contest with those at the top end of the hcap, perhaps a watching brief to see how the market goes nearer the off. Simonside down towards the bottom mainly gets his rating from a drop in the weights from last time.
Jackform
Mare
I am probably on my own here as most of you will have gone off to earn a crust but I'll keep chatting anyway .
In a previous post on this thread I stated that I compile my own ratings to get some definition into the card. Today provides a good example, as in the Ayr 4.30 Daily Mail Formcast rates the field within 2 lbs and how can you convert that into a practical tissue?
I rate eight variables or up to ten if you count the going and draw whereas the RacingSystemBuilder lists 135 for NH racing - am I missing something?
(by the way I have their free ebook on file if anyone would like a copy).
The other day I was banging on about value (don't make me laff
) and the fact that in general the mug punters, me included, are generally betting at price disadvantage as the cognoscenti are all taking their cut first. How can we, the great unwashed, overcome this? The answer is we can bet or not as we choose whilst the official layers have to play in every race. There you have it, be a guerilla fighter just hit and run .
Ayr 4.30 by Jackform ratings
1. 4 50/1 (11 Betfair market at 10.00) Weight could be his downfall (Wilson/Brennan 3rd best combo)
2. 4 50 1 (17.5) Distance?(Wade?Renwick 2nd best combo)
3. 6 18/1 (18)
4. 7 13/1 (18) Big drop in weight from last time out.
5. 18 5/2 (3.55) Nuts N Bolts looks a solid fav so the odds could be short, we will see waht the connections think (Russell/Buchanan top track combo).
6. 12 5/1 (5.9) Rich Lord the only runner with no C and/or D form.
7. 7 13/1 (8) (McCain/Maguire top race combo)
8. 14 4/1 (6.4) Rossini's Dancer
9. 9 8/1 (15.5)
Ayr on this going will be a thorough test today.
Timeform goes 6. 5, 8
Betfair market at 10.00 indicates winner from 5, 6, 8, 7.
Jackform goes 5, 8, 6 depends on the odds later tho'
What do I think? Nuts N Bolts is a consistent good performer and ticks all my rating boxes, butit wasn't difficult to find just looking at the paper was it?
.In a previous post on this thread I stated that I compile my own ratings to get some definition into the card. Today provides a good example, as in the Ayr 4.30 Daily Mail Formcast rates the field within 2 lbs and how can you convert that into a practical tissue?
I rate eight variables or up to ten if you count the going and draw whereas the RacingSystemBuilder lists 135 for NH racing - am I missing something?
(by the way I have their free ebook on file if anyone would like a copy).The other day I was banging on about value (don't make me laff
) and the fact that in general the mug punters, me included, are generally betting at price disadvantage as the cognoscenti are all taking their cut first. How can we, the great unwashed, overcome this? The answer is we can bet or not as we choose whilst the official layers have to play in every race. There you have it, be a guerilla fighter just hit and run .Ayr 4.30 by Jackform ratings
1. 4 50/1 (11 Betfair market at 10.00) Weight could be his downfall (Wilson/Brennan 3rd best combo)
2. 4 50 1 (17.5) Distance?(Wade?Renwick 2nd best combo)
3. 6 18/1 (18)
4. 7 13/1 (18) Big drop in weight from last time out.
5. 18 5/2 (3.55) Nuts N Bolts looks a solid fav so the odds could be short, we will see waht the connections think (Russell/Buchanan top track combo).
6. 12 5/1 (5.9) Rich Lord the only runner with no C and/or D form.
7. 7 13/1 (8) (McCain/Maguire top race combo)
8. 14 4/1 (6.4) Rossini's Dancer
9. 9 8/1 (15.5)
Ayr on this going will be a thorough test today.
Timeform goes 6. 5, 8
Betfair market at 10.00 indicates winner from 5, 6, 8, 7.
Jackform goes 5, 8, 6 depends on the odds later tho'
What do I think? Nuts N Bolts is a consistent good performer and ticks all my rating boxes, butit wasn't difficult to find just looking at the paper was it?
Using my method the top five are..
Stormin Exit
Nuts N Bolts
Premier Sagas
Rossin's Dancer
Rich Lord
After using 'ozracetools' and then perusing the market RD and RL both get dumped. Not rated highly enough and both underlays.
Premier Sagas is an overlay.
Nuts N Bolts is an underlay.
Stormin Exit tops my ratings and is an overlay. It would be my selection albeit to place only.
Stormin Exit
Nuts N Bolts
Premier Sagas
Rossin's Dancer
Rich Lord
After using 'ozracetools' and then perusing the market RD and RL both get dumped. Not rated highly enough and both underlays.
Premier Sagas is an overlay.
Nuts N Bolts is an underlay.
Stormin Exit tops my ratings and is an overlay. It would be my selection albeit to place only.
Jackform
Mare
Here I am again the Che Guevara of betting, the layers' bete noir . Sweet as a NUT yesterday although it did clout one hard near the finish. Old Pulsnotrix was underlaying, overlaying wombling free yesterday and I do know a little about the technicalities of that as I will show, but I have moved on from there as you have to be a super-trooper punter to succeed with that approach - not that it's wrong . As I have stated several times; in my experience runners with the best chances are going to be underlays so the best approach is to concentrate on improving your strike-rate, get up to a consistent 40% and your cooking by gas.
. Sweet as a NUT yesterday although it did clout one hard near the finish. Old Pulsnotrix was underlaying, overlaying wombling free yesterday and I do know a little about the technicalities of that as I will show, but I have moved on from there as you have to be a super-trooper punter to succeed with that approach - not that it's wrong . As I have stated several times; in my experience runners with the best chances are going to be underlays so the best approach is to concentrate on improving your strike-rate, get up to a consistent 40% and your cooking by gas.MATHEMATICAL FORMULA OF EXPECTED VALUE
Example: EV = ½ (1) – ½ (1) = 0 advantage
Let me share a secret with you. Unless you accept and implement the principle detailed in the following article it is impossible profit by betting on horses in the long-term. Without adopting this strategy you must resign yourself to losing in the end.
Every bet made must be subject to the winning mathematical formula of expected value: -
EV = P (G) – P (L)
Where P is the probability of the event, G is the potential gain and L is the potential loss.
If the expected value is positive you have an overlay sound bet, conversely if the expected value is negative it is an underlay unsound bet. For example on tossing a coin strictly heads or tails that is evens as a return on your stake the EV = 0 and is a fair bet with no advantage to either party. Neither an overlay nor an underlay: -
EV = ½ (1) – ½ (1) = 0
If offered 4/5 the probability remains the same but G is now 0.8 and thus EV is negative. Naturally after one toss of the coin you are as likely to win as you are to lose but in the long-term over a number of spins: -
EV = ½ (0.8) – ½ (1) = - 0.1
This is what happens for example at the roulette wheel. Forget about staking plans etc., in the long-term at roulette both the probabilities and the potential gains/losses are certain so you must lose.
Horseracing offers a different scenario as the potential gains/losses are certain but the probabilities of events are subjective phenomena. For example if you believe Opera House had a 20% chance of success in the King George at odds of 4/1 the EV would be 0: -
EV = 0.2 (4) – 0.8 (1) = 0
However, at early prices Opera House was available at 8/1, therefore: -
EV = 0.2 (8) – 0.8 (1) = + 0.8
This indicates a positive return of 80% in the event of a winning run.
In the same race we may believe that Commander In Chief has a 30% chance of success, available at odds of 2/1, therefore: -
EV = 0.3 (2) – 0.7 (1) = - 0.1
If the probabilities were correct Commander In Chief would win a race more often than Opera House, but if only overlays are supported in the end they win.
Most people can accept the logic and validity of the argument presented (if you do not then you are mistaken because they are mathematical facts). However, it is alien to back anything but a major fancy in a race, which is natural and acceptable, so long as it is only backed if it is an overlay bet.
Example: EV = ½ (1) – ½ (1) = 0 advantage
Let me share a secret with you. Unless you accept and implement the principle detailed in the following article it is impossible profit by betting on horses in the long-term. Without adopting this strategy you must resign yourself to losing in the end.
Every bet made must be subject to the winning mathematical formula of expected value: -
EV = P (G) – P (L)
Where P is the probability of the event, G is the potential gain and L is the potential loss.
If the expected value is positive you have an overlay sound bet, conversely if the expected value is negative it is an underlay unsound bet. For example on tossing a coin strictly heads or tails that is evens as a return on your stake the EV = 0 and is a fair bet with no advantage to either party. Neither an overlay nor an underlay: -
EV = ½ (1) – ½ (1) = 0
If offered 4/5 the probability remains the same but G is now 0.8 and thus EV is negative. Naturally after one toss of the coin you are as likely to win as you are to lose but in the long-term over a number of spins: -
EV = ½ (0.8) – ½ (1) = - 0.1
This is what happens for example at the roulette wheel. Forget about staking plans etc., in the long-term at roulette both the probabilities and the potential gains/losses are certain so you must lose.
Horseracing offers a different scenario as the potential gains/losses are certain but the probabilities of events are subjective phenomena. For example if you believe Opera House had a 20% chance of success in the King George at odds of 4/1 the EV would be 0: -
EV = 0.2 (4) – 0.8 (1) = 0
However, at early prices Opera House was available at 8/1, therefore: -
EV = 0.2 (8) – 0.8 (1) = + 0.8
This indicates a positive return of 80% in the event of a winning run.
In the same race we may believe that Commander In Chief has a 30% chance of success, available at odds of 2/1, therefore: -
EV = 0.3 (2) – 0.7 (1) = - 0.1
If the probabilities were correct Commander In Chief would win a race more often than Opera House, but if only overlays are supported in the end they win.
Most people can accept the logic and validity of the argument presented (if you do not then you are mistaken because they are mathematical facts). However, it is alien to back anything but a major fancy in a race, which is natural and acceptable, so long as it is only backed if it is an overlay bet.
Jackform
Mare
Now where was I? Waffling again to be sure, but that's what we are on here for isn't it? I have rated a hcap hurdle race today and I seldom get my head round them so usually avoid them.
Musselburgh 3.40 by my ratings.
1. 14 85/40 (3.95 Betfair 09.50) Ifandbutwhynot, coming from Sandown up 17lbs so a big ask even if they can't gallop round here.
2. 8 17/2 (8) (Ellison/Cook 3rd best combo)
3. 11 7/2 (4.8) Roman Flight, a bit odd this one having raced of 9st Wolves AW last time, but PU at Donny before carrying the same weight as today. (O'Meara/McCoy 2nd best combo).
4. 6 25/1 (8.6) (Kirby/McGrath best combo this race)
5. 6 25/1 (5.5)
6. 7 13/1 (14.5)
7. 9 6/1 (44) Cool Baranca, mare versus males?
8. 7 13/1 (15.5) Filly versus males? Cse? D? G? A French import with two chases under her belt and won at Nimes LTO. Could be anything so watching the market.
Musselburgh is flat with sharp bends favouring handy runners not gallopers.
Timeform goes 1, 3, 5
Betfair market 0950 indicates winner from 1, 3, 5
Jackform ratings go 1, 3, 7
What do I think? My bottle goes when I do hcap hurdle races but I can't see 1 at the weights so would have to go 3 depending on any price change later -dodgy :|
9.
Musselburgh 3.40 by my ratings.
1. 14 85/40 (3.95 Betfair 09.50) Ifandbutwhynot, coming from Sandown up 17lbs so a big ask even if they can't gallop round here.
2. 8 17/2 (8) (Ellison/Cook 3rd best combo)
3. 11 7/2 (4.8) Roman Flight, a bit odd this one having raced of 9st Wolves AW last time, but PU at Donny before carrying the same weight as today. (O'Meara/McCoy 2nd best combo).
4. 6 25/1 (8.6) (Kirby/McGrath best combo this race)
5. 6 25/1 (5.5)
6. 7 13/1 (14.5)
7. 9 6/1 (44) Cool Baranca, mare versus males?
8. 7 13/1 (15.5) Filly versus males? Cse? D? G? A French import with two chases under her belt and won at Nimes LTO. Could be anything so watching the market.
Musselburgh is flat with sharp bends favouring handy runners not gallopers.
Timeform goes 1, 3, 5
Betfair market 0950 indicates winner from 1, 3, 5
Jackform ratings go 1, 3, 7
What do I think? My bottle goes when I do hcap hurdle races but I can't see 1 at the weights so would have to go 3 depending on any price change later -dodgy :|
9.
nedloh
Mare
"In the same race we may believe that Commander In Chief has a 30% chance of success"
How do you know it has a 30% chance of winning ?. I might say it has 25%, someone else might say 35% chance.
I've heard so much talk about value, yes you have to get a fair price, but how many can "guess" the true chances of a horse winning the race.
If you are very good at it, your on the pigs back, but it is very hard to develope that skill.
Always remember the bookie tries his best to give you lower odds than the true chance and he has more ways of doing this than most.
Jack, what do you mean by "true mathematical odds", you don't seem to consider outsiders at all.
How do you know it has a 30% chance of winning ?. I might say it has 25%, someone else might say 35% chance.
I've heard so much talk about value, yes you have to get a fair price, but how many can "guess" the true chances of a horse winning the race.
If you are very good at it, your on the pigs back, but it is very hard to develope that skill.
Always remember the bookie tries his best to give you lower odds than the true chance and he has more ways of doing this than most.
Jack, what do you mean by "true mathematical odds", you don't seem to consider outsiders at all.
I did some preliminary work on this last night then returned to it @ about 10am today. I concluded that 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 are the ones to concentrate on. 9 shows up reasonably well but is completely unfancied in the market so I'm taking the hint.
I've ranked those five as follows.
Rumble Of Thunder
Cry of Freedom
Ultimate
Ifandbutwhynot
Roman Flight
A supplimentary method I utilise occasionally seems to rule out all bar Ultimate & Cry Of Freedom and they are both underlays but COF less so.
So what to do? Well, overnight I got 2.7 on betfair for Ultimate to place. I'm quite happy with that. Now I'll have a small rev f/c on COF & Ultimate.
That's my 2p's worth.
I've ranked those five as follows.
Rumble Of Thunder
Cry of Freedom
Ultimate
Ifandbutwhynot
Roman Flight
A supplimentary method I utilise occasionally seems to rule out all bar Ultimate & Cry Of Freedom and they are both underlays but COF less so.
So what to do? Well, overnight I got 2.7 on betfair for Ultimate to place. I'm quite happy with that. Now I'll have a small rev f/c on COF & Ultimate.
That's my 2p's worth.
Jackform
Mare
PulsatrixP, 'true mathemeatical odds' is simply one less than the number of runners in a race i.e., if there was no form and all were equal in an eight runner race it is 7/1. Quoting my guru the professor taken out of context from a list of stats,'Look very cautiously at any horse starting at 7/1 or better. You need a good reason why your judgment has seen what the crowd ovelooked'.
The reason I only consider the short end of the market where the odds are shortening also derives from the prof:
'Prices are made by knowledgeable professionals and longer odds only indicate remote possibilities (and these ancient stats for the Flat turf).
45% of all winners start at 3/1 or below.
65% of all winners start at 5/1 or below.
78% of all winners start at 7/1 or below.
72% of all winners come from the first three favourites in the betting.
63% from the first two.
So my thinking is that if you are always striving to improve your strike-rate you must consider the short end of the market. That is after rating all the runners and compiling a tissue to compare with the actual market. Just opinion really based of form .
The reason I only consider the short end of the market where the odds are shortening also derives from the prof:
'Prices are made by knowledgeable professionals and longer odds only indicate remote possibilities (and these ancient stats for the Flat turf).
45% of all winners start at 3/1 or below.
65% of all winners start at 5/1 or below.
78% of all winners start at 7/1 or below.
72% of all winners come from the first three favourites in the betting.
63% from the first two.
So my thinking is that if you are always striving to improve your strike-rate you must consider the short end of the market. That is after rating all the runners and compiling a tissue to compare with the actual market. Just opinion really based of form
.
nedloh
Mare
Since 2003 to yesterday this is the breakdown of the 1st 10 Flat Favorites-these figures are a lot different than yours.
51% of winners come from the first 3 in the betting
51% of winners come from the first 3 in the betting
Breakdown | Bets | Wins | WinStrike | SP_PL | Places | PlaceStrike | Races | RaceStrike | ROI | BF_Back | BF_Lay |
1 | 50462 | 15203 | 30 | -3330.35 | 29642 | 59 | 45658 | 33 | -0.066 | -1227.74 | -3978.24 |
2 | 47303 | 8661 | 18 | -5286.18 | 22260 | 47 | 41400 | 21 | -0.1118 | -2153.1 | -3682.01 |
3 | 47300 | 6032 | 13 | -7018.8 | 17797 | 38 | 40051 | 15 | -0.1484 | -2883.45 | -3958.95 |
4 | 47145 | 4488 | 10 | -8506.34 | 14480 | 31 | 38613 | 12 | -0.1804 | -3639.78 | -4114.04 |
5 | 45609 | 3280 | 7 | -10464 | 11617 | 25 | 36525 | 9 | -0.2294 | -5305.74 | -2866.15 |
6 | 44217 | 2439 | 6 | -11592.5 | 9029 | 20 | 33944 | 7 | -0.2622 | -5842.87 | -3106.15 |
7 | 40872 | 1722 | 4 | -13926 | 7159 | 18 | 29986 | 6 | -0.3407 | -8604.7 | 174.1 |
8 | 35631 | 1179 | 3 | -14215.5 | 5285 | 15 | 25390 | 5 | -0.399 | -9565.04 | 2092.75 |
9 | 30801 | 883 | 3 | -11955 | 3832 | 12 | 21203 | 4 | -0.3881 | -7304.44 | 8.9 |
10 | 25538 | 608 | 2 | -10951 | 2719 | 11 | 17168 | 4 | -0.4288 | -7043.16 | 858.1 |