• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
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    AR

Two methods of rating?

The Dick Whitford style Ratings that VDW demonstrated to say that Canny Danny was 1/2 a Stone out of it when compared to West Tip and that Wing And A Prayer was well in) The Prize Money via Distribution and Sponsorship data that defined the Abilty Ratings and define Race Class, has changed too.

Chesham

Dick Whitford ratings at that time were for flat racing only, N/Hunt came about in 1987 or so. I am fairly sure VDW meant by the following "the horse (West Tip) which has half-a-stone in hand at of him at the framed weights" The race they entered their horses in the framed handicap was about 21 days before the race in those days. He had four pounds extra penalty for his win at Ascot and he was probably put up another 3lb by the handicapper for his 2nd at Newbury. That's how I understood it.
Thanks for your the hard work you put in.
Downey
 
Also the trainer exploited the weight for age scale for Wing And A Prayer in race N0 1544 on the 5th of Jan 1985.
Downey
 
mtoto said:
Chesham,



You seem to be well into stats and I have to be honest I don't even look at them unless they are connected to a horses profile. I'm only interested in this horse in this race, and why. Why is the trainer running it here, can this horse compete in this class on this course? Good consistent horse are still winning more than their fair share of good races, here the operative word is good and I will stick to it.

Be Lucky
Click to expand...

VDW used stats all the time to demonstrate where the odds were loaded in your favour. 'Load the odds in your favour" He then produced probability statistics for many areas, Consistency Ratings he gave the Stats for individuals if they had the Form figures 1,1,1 VDW gave the Stats for Total Form Figures in a race ie 3-3-3 = 99%

First 5 in the Forecast he agreed were 83%

He talks about Trainers Percentages over a 3 year period "The highest winning percentages came for a trainer with six wins from 21 runners (28.6%) and a £1 level satke Profit of £25.88

Tracks " I note one track with a record of 40.4 % Winning Favourites and a level stake profit

VDW best summed the who thing up with "Racing is all about odds, not just the prices on the bookmaker's boards, but odds relating to many things"

With regards to the other part of your post Mtoto " I'm only interested in this horse in this race, and why. Why is the trainer running it here, can this horse compete in this class on this course? Good consistent horse are still winning more than their fair share of good races, "

Rather than ask why a Trainer is running it here, can this horse compete in this class, I sometimes try to anticipate

The follow is a series of PM's that I exchanged Pre Race with Arkle, before I joined this Forum

Mark Prescott each year he will have one or two 2 Y-O and give them 3 runs over a distance too short of what their pedigree tell you is best. This is to get them a Handicap Mark lower than they really are capable of achieving. Sir Mark will then put them away until the following season

These are a series of PM’s that I sent to Arkle

Hi Arkle

Albert Bridge has his Brother Running tonight, trained by Mark Prescott and stepping up to 10f for his handicap debut Redcar 5.40, Alcaeus


Sadly, Arkle did not pick up my Pm until after the race

Next PM

Hi Arkle

Albert Bridge had his Brother Running tonight, trained by Mark Prescott and stepping up to 10f for his handicap debut Redcar 5.40, Alcaeus ground out a win to deny the 2nd horse over a distance which is probably the minimum, I think was good. Has been withdrawn from the race on Thursday and Alcaeus will not be assessed for his new OHR until Tuesday next week and then has until Saturday next week to run off
his old mark.

I would not be surprised if Sir Mark Prescott finds an Apprentice Handicap Race for this horse, next week, with someone like Rosie Jessop Booked (Claims Five), over 12f, as he would run under a 6 Lb penalty but she would take off 5 of those lbs. if they win, then the week after they would run off the OHR that they allocate on Tuesday next but will escape a penalty if they win an apprentice race so will be able to run up a sequence until the Handicapper has a chance to do anything about it.

Sir Mark always has a few two year olds who he runs three times over too short a distance, to get a Handicap Mark. Then puts them away until they are 3 Y-Olds and then starts them off for a first win over 10f, steps them up to 12f and then sometimes even further ie 14f etc.

I have seen him use Rosie Jessop before like the possible scenario I have decribed above. Alcaeus is only rated 57 and the only horse they can use as a marker is the one who finished 2nd. I think the OHR will raise Alcaeus 4 or 5lbs at most. Taking him to 61 or 62. The 2nd horse I think they will leave on 61.

Albert Bridge won off 80 but is probably better than that by some way, just has not had the breaks. Alla Speranza the half sister is rated 105, so even off 62, Alcaeus will be well under his true handicap mark

So as I see it Week Commencing 27th May could run Alcaeus in an Apprentice Handicap and there a couple he might enter at the 5 day stage. He would race of 63 as he would be carrying a penalty. (If Rosie is book would take that 63 down to 58. Win that and then Week Commencing June the 3rd would run off what I think his new OHR will be for yesterdays win, 62 and again in a handicap but would escape a Penalty for an Apprentice Race win so would only race off 62.

Lets see what happens next

They must really like Hernando as a Sire for Alvarita as they have gone back to him and have two Fillies born since Alcaeus, Altesse Born Feb 16 2011 and Alboretta born Feb 26 2012,

Good Luck


Next PM

Hi Arkle

Alcaeus has been entered today for a 10f, Class 6 handicap at leicester 28th May. Prescott won this Leicester race in 2010 with Comedy Act who was also a Penalty Carrier. Was hoping he would go for an Apprentice Handicap, but there were only about two of those over 10f and 12f next week at the 5 day stage, one was at Kempton, so on Grass has Limited options with regards to Apprentice Races.


Good Luck


Next PM

Hi Arkle

Alcaeus is now entered for Beverley 29th May (Class 5) and Sir Mark won this before with a Horse Called Liberate

Now the interesting bit, also entered at Hamilton 30th may (Class 6) and Sir Mark has won this race twice before, one of those was Liberate who won under a Penalty from the Beverley Race dropping in class to collect.

Lets see if he tried a repeat, would mean carrying a 12 lbs penalty at Hamilton, but would be dropping in class if he were to win the Beverley race.

Good Luck

Next PM

Hi Arkle

Looks like Sir Mark is going to run him at Hamilton, class six and only carries 1 lb more in physical weight. Luke Morris is booked to ride. Has another entry penciled in over 10f at Lingfield. All previous entries are scrubbed.

Next PM
Hi Arkle

RE Alcaeus is only rated 57 and the only horse they can use as a marker is the one who finished 2nd. I think the OHR will raise Alcaeus 4 or 5lbs at most. Taking him to 61 or 62. The 2nd horse I think they will leave.


They have raised Alcaeus to 63 and left Topamichi (the horse who came 2nd) on 60

Alcaeus has a Chepstow entry (Class 6) off his new handicap mark, so if he wins at Hamilton can carry just a 6 lb penalty there

Good Luck

Alcaeus went to Hamilton and Won

Next PM (Following the Hamilton Win)

Hi Arkle

The horse who finished 2nd to Alcaeus at Redcar Topamichi, won today so the Handicapper has got the OHR wrong for Aclaeus and will not get a chance to do anything about it until Tuesday next week and even then will remain on 63, the mark he won off today when you add the penalty and has until Saturday next week to follow up again of 63 + 6lbs Penalty. (69)

It looks like Chepstow on Monday is being lined up next as Luke Morris is now declared as riding.

Good Luck

Next PM

Hi Arkle

The horse who finished 2nd to Alcaeus at Redcar Topamichi, won today so the Handicapper has got the OHR wrong for Aclaeus and will not get a chance to do anything about it until Tuesday next week and even then will remain on 63, the mark he won off today when you add the penalty and has until Saturday next week to follow up again of 63 + 6lbs Penalty. (69)

It looks like Chepstow on Monday is being lined up next as Luke Morris is now declared as riding.

Good Luck

Next PM

Hi Arkle

White Moth has gone up 2 lbs without winning, 5lbs in physical weight and does look likely to grab the rail, Alcaeus is drawn low enough to tuck in behind and of the two on breeding has more stamina so should take this.

Good Luck

Alcaeus duly won

Next PM

Hi Arkle

Sir Marks Record at Lingfield AW, 12f Handicaps and LTO Turf

Runs 14 £1 Win SP £7.25 (51.8%)
Wins 4 (28.6%)

Sir Mark is brilliant at placing horses like Alcaeus and to get three wins on the bounce, takes some doing these days, so hats off to him for keeping one step ahead of the Official BHA Handicapper. He is a Trainer worth getting to know and and have fun trying to guess what he might do next with this type of horse.

Good Luck

Final PM before his Yarmouth win and this time left alone even though I expected him to win.


Hi Arkle

To clear up the OHR question. Today Alcaeus races off 69 + 6lbs Penalty and the Racing Post add that 6 to his OHR to make 75 (Makes it Confusing) From Saturday he will have to race off 77 and would not be able to race in this class. On Official Figures even with the extra penalty is 2 lbs well in

He is a big horse so I don't think the weight will be a problem in this class and his full brother, Albert Bridge won off 9st-12 in a class 3.

Today is down 5lbs in class from LTO and the step up in distance should suit Alcaeus.

As you know I have stopped keeping my own speed figures because of the work involved with the Pedigree Sheet on Flatstats. However, I subscribe to Inform Speed Figures and they are on a different scale to your own figures, but they have Alcaeus on 85 for his last run and their Class Par Figures for Class 2 Handicaps = 84, so they agree with you.

The speed figures indicate that he ran his last race in a standard better than the class and is racing below his true Class ceiling. The only thing that might stop Alcaeus winning today is if he needs a break, eventually he will as they are not machines.

Today I will not be backing as he has rewarded me well and at the back of my mind is the number of races in a short space of time. Most Group horses have a good interval in between races and that is how they run up an unbeaten sequence. Although he has not been racing in such a competitive class, I do worry about being over raced and you only find out when they lose that they now need a break. Then the Trainer will give them a few months break and start them out on a Autumn campaign.

I expect Alcaeus to win today but happy to watch the race today. If he does win today I expect Sir Mark will give him a break and look for a decent handicap prize.

Good Luck


Mtoto as you can see I backed Alcaeus 3 times and left him on the 4th time even though he won. Sir Mark then put him away for a break and brought him back for a higher Prize Money Race and won that too.


I think most on here will be more interested on how we go about our day to day thought process of finding horses to back. Unless VDW comes on this Forum we are never going to know for sure how near or far away we are from his methodology. I give my thoughts and you have your own thoughts on VDW. The Forum members here are all grown ups and they make their own mind up if a post has been helpful to them or not.

Anything I post I try to back up with an example, along with the thought process that went into the decision. There is nothing stopping you doing the same, it would be time better spent than disagreeing with nearly everything I write and give Forum Members the chance to see how you operate.

Most non VDW Horseplayers I'm sure switch off from reading VDW posts, as it is often about one person trying to demonstrate that their interpretation of VDW is best. I can only demonstrate how I operate and if that does not fit into your interpretation of VDW thats fine, I am not trying to take you away from your own way of working or saying to other members that they should not follow your ideas on VDW or to follow the way I work with VDW.

On another note someone asked if there was anymore selections from Lee, the following is useful as it gives an insight into the performance he was looking for when placing a horse on his list to follow, I have already covered his weight angle (Please note the weight and Class angle when Braashee first met Cossack Guard, along with how they performed in the latter stages of the race) The thought process from Lee is worth reading

Lee" regarding more than one horse from my lists meeting in a race brings me on to the 2.05 at Kempton on Saturday. Boogie Street, Nights Cross, and Bali Royal are horses that recorded their best ever speed figures last time out, the first 2 in Listed class, and Bali Royal in Handicap Company with a fair amount of weight. The first 2 are entered up in various group 2’s and 1’s in the future. Out of these 2 Boogie Street comes out on top for me, was a lighter raced 2yo, and also held Nights Cross at Ayr last year when expected to do so. Bali Royal is exposed and is first time out. Having said all that I wouldn’t be keen about backing a 3yo in this race, and that’s before I’ve looked closely at the opposition.

The horse must have shown it has the ability to handle the class, or step up to the class, and the only way of deciding this is by reviewing it’s preceding races. What did it do, against what, over what conditions? Then, has it been placed to win?

Sounds easy when I put it like that!!
"

Posting on VDW I always find that I get bogged down with answering Mtoto, in fairness though he treats me no differently than he has Lee and quite a few others in the past, so I am in good company. I wish VDW was on the Forum under a different username as I am sure he would disagree with him too. Joking aside it is time consuming replying with an answer knowing for sure that he will disagree with my answer or he has no interest in the type of races that I have looked at, so he will say that he can't comment. Therefore, I hope the Forum Members will forgive me if I have hogged the VDW thread again, it was not my intention.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
downey said:
The Dick Whitford style Ratings that VDW demonstrated to say that Canny Danny was 1/2 a Stone out of it when compared to West Tip and that Wing And A Prayer was well in) The Prize Money via Distribution and Sponsorship data that defined the Abilty Ratings and define Race Class, has changed too.

Chesham

Dick Whitford ratings at that time were for flat racing only, N/Hunt came about in 1987 or so. I am fairly sure VDW meant by the following "the horse (West Tip) which has half-a-stone in hand at of him at the framed weights" The race they entered their horses in the framed handicap was about 21 days before the race in those days. He had four pounds extra penalty for his win at Ascot and he was probably put up another 3lb by the handicapper for his 2nd at Newbury. That's how I understood it.
Thanks for your the hard work you put in.
Downey
Click to expand...

Hi Downey

You could well be right, Would VDW not have needed the Racing Calendar for the OHR rating for West Tip though and he said he used the Sporting Chronicle for race Entry Information. The 4lb Penalty would have only reduced the amount he had in hand at the Framed Hnadicap, not increased it. I was going on the Sporting Life Handicap Ratings and West Tip was 1/2 a stone in hand on the Sporting Life ratings. The Dick Whitford bit you will certainly be correct as from memory I think he was Flat Racing Only, which is why I said Dick Whitford Style, Thanks for pointing that out and it would be interesting if anyone has the OHR for West Tip at the time of the race

The Trainer did exploit the Weight for Age with Wing And A Prayer

Good Luck

Chehsam
 
Hi Chesham!

It is good to have so much action going on a V.D.W thread!

I enjoy your posts, the ones you have posted by Lee I have not seen before.

He says they had all scored CB speeds LTO, was he using this to decide on the horses to take from a race with the right elements?

I have listed Jalotta, who finished 4th at 40-1 behind No Nay Never and Rizeena,he is entered in a group 2 soon, scored CB speed LTO.


Think he has a decent race in him!
 
formtheory said:
Hi Chesham!




He says they had all scored CB speeds LTO, was he using this to decide on the horses to take from a race with the right elements?

!
Click to expand...


Not all his selections had a Career Best Speed, this may help from my research into Lee's bets

Lee's selections and when they may have been placed on his list.

Tropical Lady won LTO, Key Horse = Major Title 2nd (22/5/04) LTO won 3/1 Fav

Ouija Board Up in Class, Key Horse = Sahoool 2nd (02/05/04) LTO won

Mephisto up in class won LTO, key Horse =Astro Charm 2nd (08/07/04) LTO won 3/1 Fav

Darasim won LTO going up in class, placed 3nd Key Horse = Papineau (17/05/09) LTO won 9/4,2nd Fav




Good Luck

Chehsam
 
Anything I post I try to back up with an example, along with the thought process that went into the decision. There is nothing stopping you doing the same, it would be time better spent than disagreeing with nearly everything I write and give Forum Members the chance to see how you operate.

Chesham,

I think I have gone into more than enough detail on my thinking and how I go about finding my selection in the past. Over the years I have put up many pre race selections on VDW forums and have answered in as straight forward manner any questions and my reasons for thinking on forum and in private. In fact I seem to remember explaining in some detail to you and showing you my working. However I have to be honest and while the basic idea is the same there have be one or two minor tweeks

I too can put up e-mails that could be confirmed and every week put up my thoughts on a small forum.

Rip 4:10 1 The Rectifier 2 Robert The Painter 3 Trail Blaze

With five runners in this with better class form this reads/screams prep. Many have better class entries in the near future. The one horse with proven form that is 100% trying to win this is Osteopathic Remedy, and this is the target for the year again. Unlike the top two rated there is no potential problem with the going, and there are question marks about 1 and 3 with the course. The 2nd rated Robert The Painter has still to prove he can handle this class. Osteopathic Remedy is following the well tried path in the lead up for this, can act on any going but is better with give in the ground. One I see as a danger is Anton Chigurh, he is entered in the Cambridgeshire, and needs a penalty to improve his chances of a run. He has the class and the going could suit today
slight question mark re the course. At the prices I'm going with both small win loaded place.

Goodw 1:55 1 Broxbourne 2 Kazbow 3 Italian Riviera.

It says this is a class 2, the runners say if it is it's a very weak class2 !!

The only in I can see to this race is the trainer of the top rated, Mark Johnston is returning to the track quickly with an inform horse. However because of the hype about this trainer at this meeting the price is very unlikely to reflect his true chances. Broxbourne is top rated purely on stats, as he like the rest of the field fail for me on proven ability. However I do make him the strongest probable. Actually the price is better than I thought it would be small win loaded place


Goodw 1:55 1 Tepmokea 2 Nabucco 3 Labarinto
Goodw 3:05 1 Aljamaaheer 2 Producer 3Caspar Netscher
Goodw 3:40 1 Harris Tweed 2 Duke Of Clarence 3 Clowance Estate

1:55 There has to be question marks against the top two rated performing on this course whereas Labarinto recorded his best figures on the course. The place price about Labarinto is acceptable so a small win loaded place.
3:05 Aljamaaheer is well clear on the figures but at the price on offer is too tight with the doubt about the course. I wouldn't be surprised to see Producer win but again would want a better price before taking the risk.
3:40 Harris Tweed If he is anywhere near his best this is a massive overall drop in class. In the past he has shown he can handle the course and whatever the going doesn't seem to bother him too much. The major problem with backing him is do they really want him to win as it would involve a penalty for the Ebor? The Ebor is run on a course that would suit and I do seem to remember reading that could well be his main target for the year Has to be worth an e/w bet when they are offering 5/1 a place

Newc 3:15 1 Tominator 2 Ile De Re 3 Arch Villain
Chest 3:20 1 Duke Cosimo 2 Penny Garcia 3 Lord Ashley
Newm 3:30 1 Pastoral Player 2 Red Jazz 3 Hawkeyethenoo
Wind 3:35 1 Rawaki 2 Clowance Estate 3 Jupiter Storm
Newc 3:50 1 Bertiewhittle 2 Diescentric 3 Anton Chigurh
Newm 4:05 1 Resurge 2 Strictly Silver 3 Spifer

Can't get overly excited by anything running today. In the 3:15 I do think Tominator has more going for him than the next two in the ratings, going wise he is versatile and proven over course and distance. I think he is nailed on for a place and is worth a small win bet.
3:25 Rawaki is being aimed at this race again this year after starting as favourite last year. Last race reads like a prep but unlike last season he was race fit so did he really need a prep. Can't make up my mind was it the stiff course or the going that was the problem when he ran at Newmarket, the going shouldn't be firm and the course isn't as stiff so I'm going with a small win and a loaded place.


Ascot 2:30 1 Gale Force Ten 2 Mutin 3 Montiridge
Ascot 3:05 1 Thistle Bird 2 Sarkiyla 3 Chigun
Ascot 3:45 1 Camelot 2 Maxios 3 Al Kazeem
Ascot 4:25 1 Premio Loco 2 Burke's Rock 3 Arsaadi
Ascot 5:35 1 Woodland Aria 2 Auction 3 Mango Diva

First sorry if this is a little late but I have asked the wife to send it if I'm going to be late coming back from the hospital.

With other things on my mind the only race I have looked at is the 4:25 and here I'm taking a real chance! Both Premio Loco and Arsaadi are running in hcp's after running in higher class races for some time. Premio Loco is VERY versatile and runs well on any type of course, distance, and most goings. Yes, he is a little old but this is a fair drop in class, I make him the class horse and the official handicapper nearly agrees. I may be reading too much into it but his last few runs read prep as I can't see he would really be expected to win any of them, Back to his best distance, on a course he has won on he looks a reasonable bet to get in the first five with Paddy Power.
Arsaadi was a major surprise when I worked this race as on the face of it the form and consistency didn't didn't look up to much. There is no doubt she looks like she has under achieved but this is a drop in class. Agreed her last race was a hcp but again that reads prep, and this is back to a stiff course and her best form has been on them again have taken her to finish in the first five with Mr Power.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto :text-goodpost:


I think Forum members will learn more from posts like that, then arguing a the Toss about VDW with me


Good Luck

Chesham
 
I think Forum members will learn more from posts like that, then arguing a the Toss about VDW with me

Chesham,

I don't see why you would think that, They didn't take that much notice when I put up these pre race selection notice the dates.

Mtoto44

Member
Posts: 42
(20/6/07 14:23)
Reply | Edit

Re: 20 June Ascot 4:20

Vortex     1
My Paris    2
Flipando    3
Montpellier    4

Vortex old figures but gained on this straight course, on this going. Has been laid out for this, and jockey booking significant. A hold up horse who can find trouble but hopefully if the center of the track is favoured can find room for his late challenge.
My Paris handles most types of courses and going best figures on a stiff track on good. Running style could be a problem in this class, but doesn't need to front run to win.
Flipando, improving and seems to be throwing his profile out the window. ThIs season has won on stiffer tracks and over longer distances than previously. This maybe down to maturity, but still think he will struggle to win this.
Montpellier, improving but course a major doubt. His failures on stiff tracks couldn't always be put down the the going as it was ok. That's more than can be said for todays going unless the rain has come down south.

Disapointed to see Pride Of A Nation running in this. I was hoping he would be saved for York. He rates well in todays race as an improver, but don't think Ascot is the place for him.

I'm having a place bet on Vortex, plus a small win bet. Well at that price I can't help myself

Mtoto44

Member
Posts: 44
(21/6/07 13:51)
Reply | Edit

Ascot 21/6/07 The two hcps today are restricted to 3 year olds. As we all know they are improving, some by leaps and bounds. So unless something really stands out at meetings like this caution is the word of the day.


Ascot 4:20.

Of the consistent horses Eddie Jock is the only one who qualifies as a form horse for me as he is the only one on the d/base. Course, and going look ok, distance a slight doubt. His qualifying race was on this course over 7f, but can't see any reason to say he won't get the mile. Jockey a plus but draw is a big ?
Dal Cais is the only other horse that registers. Again the course and going look fine, and again the doubt has to be the distance. Here the doubt is is it too short? He was tried over the mile on a stiff(ish) course, ran well but didn't win. This is a stiffer course and they will go faster so his stamina could just play a part.
A certain Mr Johnstone has three in here. Of these I would look to Colorado Rapid to do the best. He passed his trial on the stiff Pontefract track, but on that bare form he stilll has plenty to find to beat the two mentioned. That's not to say he can't.

A place bet on EJ and DC is as far as I'm going with this race.

Mtoto44

Member
Posts: 44
(22/6/07 14:39)
Reply | Edit

Re: Ascot 22/06/07 Ascot 4:20

Championship Point    1
Road To Love    2
Tabadul    3
Lake Poet    4

Championship Point is top rated based on his run at the Curragh. That form on a stiff course would just about be good enough. But and it is a big but what was that last race all about? He has form at Goodwood so the course should have been no problem. He is rejected as an out of form, form horse. If fact because he is running he stops there being a serious bet in this race, as he could prove to be a nuisance to the other front runner.
Road To Love looks to be the winner in the race (for me) course, distance, and going should all be fine. Back to his correct class, coming into form after being run in a very strange fashion. Well clear on the ratings apart from the top rated's one off good race. As said above the worry is he will be lit up by another horse going with him.
Tabadu has some good turf form, but all on very different courses to this. Very little chance of even reaching a place for me.
Lake Poet, the fact he has two Epsom wins does tend to hide the fact for me his best form is still his Ascot performance from last year. So I will have to say the course and going should be no problem, the distance maybe a little shorter than needed to be at his best. As my worry is there could be too much pace that could play into his hands.
*********************
This mistake in not believing the figures was put right yesterday.

Mtoto44

Member
Posts: 81
(31/7/07 13:37)
Reply | Edit

Re: 215G 31-07-07 Good 2:15

Championship Point    1
Collateral Damage    2
Lake Poet    3
Emirates Skyline    4

Championship Point, was top rated at R Ascot and I ignored him there, didn't think he was in form!! It was his last Goodwood race that gave me grave doubts, and to be fair I do wonder what that race was all about. All his best form has been on right handed tracks, and the distance and going should suit. Although he is a course winner based on his last run here for me there has to be a slight doubt about the course, but as he is well clear on the ratings I'm going to push it to the back of my mind as the course is also a doubt for the dangers.
Collateral Damage, the undulations are the worry here. I think his last race was the target and the going went against him. This is a slight drop in class and I can see him running a big race if he handles the course.
Lake Poet although he is only just behind the 2nd horse on the ratings I do feel he needs a rest. His best form does seem to be at the start to middle of a season up till June. His profile confuses me as his best performace is at Ascot, not his last run, but he does handle left handed speed courses, and going doesn't seem to bother him.
Emirates Skyline I maybe doing this horse an injustice but he didn't look at keen last time out. My first thoughts after watching that race was flat track bully, well this isn't a stiff track but it isn't a flat one. I don't think this is going to be an easy race to win and I do wonder about this horse's will to fight.

I'm still being told I will never get to grips with it, I'm still here but you said in a recent post only Lee from Gummys was a worth listening to.

Be Lucky
 
Brilliant posts Mtoto!

I have never seen any of these posts before!

Really well written write ups!

courses are something I need to get to grips with, do you have any advice?

I take it that these examples are using your take on the Ability rating?

How do you set out your analysis?


Take care mate
Paul.
 
Hi Mtoto

Judging from the early response I think members are more interested in your last two posts than you getting involved in arguments over my theories about VDW.

Most are interested in seeing examples where there is logical reasoning behind the analysis. I can't say that I have read any of your examples like the ones in your last two posts, why on earth have you not posted ones like these on here, certainly I am happy to join in with my take on future races that you care to put up.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Using Two methods of rating all 5 horses I found that the 3 starred horses came out best.
Both Methods show Beacon light well out of it.


The more I read this the less it makes sense?

How is the two methods of rating showing he is one of the best but also well out of it?

All I can think is he is using the two sets of ratings in two different ways?

Anyone have any ideas?
 
formtheory said:
Using Two methods of rating all 5 horses I found that the 3 starred horses came out best.
Both Methods show Beacon light well out of it.


The more I read this the less it makes sense?

How is the two methods of rating showing he is one of the best but also well out of it?

All I can think is he is using the two sets of ratings in two different ways?

Anyone have any ideas?
Click to expand...

The To Agori Mou method of rating will have Beacon Light well out of it when compared to PK

Good Luck

Chehsam
 
VDW said Two Methods of Rating ( Not two Sets of ratings)

The To Agori Mou is a Method of rating, as is the Traditional Abilty Rating, which we know is not applicable to this race, because of Beacon Light (Some say that he was a Non Form Horse so his Abilty rating is discounted. But he had already been beaten by Sea Pigeon before so why is it such a big surprise he got beaten again by this horse)

The Best LTO weight performance for the Erin, was PK's weight performance, in relation to the LTO Form of Drumgorah and the Class of the LTO Race that Drumgora had run in.

Good Luck

Chehsam
 
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