VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.
- Thread starter mtoto
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mtoto
Gelding
Chelt 1:30 1 Top Notch 2 Disko 3 Politologue
Chelt 2:10 1 Tobefair 2 Jury Duty 3 Theo's Charm
Chelt 2:50 1 Un De Sceaux 2 Sub Lieutenant 3 Empire Of Dirt
Chelt 3:30 1 Nichols Canyon 2 Jezki 3 Cole Harden
Chelt 4:10 1 Village Vic 2 Voix D'Eau 3 Starchitect
Chelt 4:50 1 Let's Dance 2 Dusky Legend 3 Airlie Beach
Probables
Chelt 1:30 1 Top Notch 2 Yorkhill 3 Flying Angel
Chelt 2:10 1 Tobefair 2 Impulsive Star 3 Isleofhopendreams
Chelt 2:50 1 Un De Sceaux 2 Vaniteux 3 Empire Of Dirt
Chelt 3:30 1 Unowhatimeanharry 2 Shaneshill 3 Jezki
Chelt 4:10 1 Starchitect 2 Champagne At Tara 3 Pinkie Brown
Chelt 4:50 1 Airlie Beach 2 Let's Dance 3 La Bague Au Roi
After yesterdays shock in the ratings/results re Douvan I have decided to leave the ratings as they are and be governed by the logic that was first used and shown. Nothing 0as big to worry about today although there are a couple of surprises, first of Un De Sceaux isn't the best on bare class. Plus Unowhatimeanharry only comes out fourth best on class and in the final rankings. None of this bothers me to much as I won't be backing in the 2:50 and I was never personally happy with Unowhatimeanharry and was always going to take him on.
1:30 nothing here for me as the pric9ishes agree with the figures and there isn't a value bet,
2:10 I love a fairy story as much as anyone but much as I would love to see this horse bring it home I just can't see it. Add in the hype and the price is way shorter than it would have been without it. He can act on undulating course I there can be no doubt about his will to win. While I do think he stand a better than fair chance of placing and that would be a major victory I can't see him improving enough to cope with this rise in class. Jury Duty prep or no prep last time out the run was way below what was needed/expected a case can be made to excuse the run as there was a change of jockey and the first time the horse had run in this country. Based on previous form and course considerations he should have performed much better and the price is a little on the tight side. There is also the worry the going has/is going against him. Theo's Charm the first thing that catches my eye is the cross check is dead against this horse but on closer examination he is just within the required criteria!! He has returned from a not so clever chasing campaign, but his hurdle form stands up quite well. So much so he is one of only three runners who have proven form in a higher class and his is the most recent. I did toy with backingJury Duty and putting a line through his last run but I really do hope it isn't just down to greed but I'm siding with Theo's Charm small win loaded place.
2:50 Nothing here for me.
3:30 Here I'm sticking with my ante post bet on Cole Harden struck before Christmas at a much better price than the one on offer today. He has the tee shirt, and I took a chance that the going would be more in his favour than it has been this season so far. Another major factor in this bet is all his best runs have been at Cheltenham on good going.
4:10 I'm going to half stakes on Voix D'Eau. I make him the class horse with his figures being obtained at this course and distance on this or very similar going. The big(ish) worry is the jockey, but he was riding on that occasion. Along with the top weight he is the only other runner with proven form in higher calls. Both horse achieved their figures at this course but Voix D'Eau. is younger leaving more room to improve and his running style does put a target on the jockeys back. Voix D'Eau. small win loaded place.
4:50 Did have a serious look at Dusky Legend as she gained her best figures in this race last year. After a quick study I decided to leave this to the Irish with La Bague Au Roi being just about the best of the English. No bet.
Be Lucky
Chelt 2:10 1 Tobefair 2 Jury Duty 3 Theo's Charm
Chelt 2:50 1 Un De Sceaux 2 Sub Lieutenant 3 Empire Of Dirt
Chelt 3:30 1 Nichols Canyon 2 Jezki 3 Cole Harden
Chelt 4:10 1 Village Vic 2 Voix D'Eau 3 Starchitect
Chelt 4:50 1 Let's Dance 2 Dusky Legend 3 Airlie Beach
Probables
Chelt 1:30 1 Top Notch 2 Yorkhill 3 Flying Angel
Chelt 2:10 1 Tobefair 2 Impulsive Star 3 Isleofhopendreams
Chelt 2:50 1 Un De Sceaux 2 Vaniteux 3 Empire Of Dirt
Chelt 3:30 1 Unowhatimeanharry 2 Shaneshill 3 Jezki
Chelt 4:10 1 Starchitect 2 Champagne At Tara 3 Pinkie Brown
Chelt 4:50 1 Airlie Beach 2 Let's Dance 3 La Bague Au Roi
After yesterdays shock in the ratings/results re Douvan I have decided to leave the ratings as they are and be governed by the logic that was first used and shown. Nothing 0as big to worry about today although there are a couple of surprises, first of Un De Sceaux isn't the best on bare class. Plus Unowhatimeanharry only comes out fourth best on class and in the final rankings. None of this bothers me to much as I won't be backing in the 2:50 and I was never personally happy with Unowhatimeanharry and was always going to take him on.
1:30 nothing here for me as the pric9ishes agree with the figures and there isn't a value bet,
2:10 I love a fairy story as much as anyone but much as I would love to see this horse bring it home I just can't see it. Add in the hype and the price is way shorter than it would have been without it. He can act on undulating course I there can be no doubt about his will to win. While I do think he stand a better than fair chance of placing and that would be a major victory I can't see him improving enough to cope with this rise in class. Jury Duty prep or no prep last time out the run was way below what was needed/expected a case can be made to excuse the run as there was a change of jockey and the first time the horse had run in this country. Based on previous form and course considerations he should have performed much better and the price is a little on the tight side. There is also the worry the going has/is going against him. Theo's Charm the first thing that catches my eye is the cross check is dead against this horse but on closer examination he is just within the required criteria!! He has returned from a not so clever chasing campaign, but his hurdle form stands up quite well. So much so he is one of only three runners who have proven form in a higher class and his is the most recent. I did toy with backingJury Duty and putting a line through his last run but I really do hope it isn't just down to greed but I'm siding with Theo's Charm small win loaded place.
2:50 Nothing here for me.
3:30 Here I'm sticking with my ante post bet on Cole Harden struck before Christmas at a much better price than the one on offer today. He has the tee shirt, and I took a chance that the going would be more in his favour than it has been this season so far. Another major factor in this bet is all his best runs have been at Cheltenham on good going.
4:10 I'm going to half stakes on Voix D'Eau. I make him the class horse with his figures being obtained at this course and distance on this or very similar going. The big(ish) worry is the jockey, but he was riding on that occasion. Along with the top weight he is the only other runner with proven form in higher calls. Both horse achieved their figures at this course but Voix D'Eau. is younger leaving more room to improve and his running style does put a target on the jockeys back. Voix D'Eau. small win loaded place.
4:50 Did have a serious look at Dusky Legend as she gained her best figures in this race last year. After a quick study I decided to leave this to the Irish with La Bague Au Roi being just about the best of the English. No bet.
Be Lucky
mtoto
Gelding
Chelt 1:30 1 Defi Du Seuil 2 Bapaume 3 Master Blueyes
Chelt 2:10 1 Arctic Fire 2 L'Ami Serge 3 Air Horse One
Chelt 2:50 1 Wholestone 2 Death Duty 3 Tommy Rapper
Chelt 3:30 1 Cue Card 2 Djakadam 3 Tea For Two
Chelt 5:30 1 The Game Changer 2 Dodging Bullets 3 Velvet Maker
Probables
Chelt 1:30 1 Defi Du Seuil 2 Master Blueyes 3 Charli Parcs
Chelt 2:10 1 Air Horse One 2 Vosne Romanee 3 Tell Us More
Chelt 2:50 1 Death Duty 2 The Worlds End 3 Wholestone
Chelt 3:30 1 Native River 2 Sizing John 3 Cue Card
Chelt 5:30 1 Theinval 2 Gardefort 3 Pairofbrowneyes
1:30 Price wise Bapaume is the only one of the top three what would be of interest. However I do have problems finding a reason why he can reverse the placings with the winner of his last race. Grasping at straws I could just about put it down a quick return from a hard race the time before. But much as I have liked the race in the past I'm giving it a miss this time around.
2:10 Arctic Fire is the clear class horse and for good measure is the clear class/form horse. He only fails in the forecast requirements and form me that is mainly down to the weight being classed as a negative and the time of the course. He has run well when fresh and the weight just confirms the official handicapper agrees he is a very good horse. His Cheltenham form can't be challenged especially in this class. L'Ami Serge is the only one who can get close class wise and I doubt he has the "bottle" to win a race like this. Air Horse One while there is no doubt he is improving his problem is he defiantly appears to have a right hand bias.Arctic Fire holding firm with my e/w ante post bet.
2:50 Did have a good look at Tommy Rapper based mainly on the price of the other two being tight, and the fact the likely favourite didn't even have an ability rating. However I have decided the course could give Tommy problems,and he does look a bit clumsy. Just hope this isn't another I have spent some time look at and turning down only to see them run screamers!!
3:30 I have always had my doubts about Cue Card coping with the hill over this distance and in this class. One of my biggest worries his best performances have been achieved at Haydock and for many years I have had major doubts about the figures telling the who;e truth and nothing but the truth. I have a small ante post e/w bet on Native River but although he comes out as the strongest probable I'm more than a little stunned to see how far down the class rankings he comes. As it was struck before Christmas I think it is just about worth letting in stand but I wouldn't be interested at the price being offered now.
5;30 Faint heart never won a fair maid or anything else for that matter!! So here we go I'm backing Dodging Bullets he is obviously the class horse by a distance. Can he recapture just a little of his old form he only needs a little of it to win this? I maybe going soft in my old age, but a really don't think the trainer would humiliate the horse, and connections, if he couldn't put in a good one at this meeting. Dodging Bullets small win loaded place.
Be Lucky
Chelt 2:10 1 Arctic Fire 2 L'Ami Serge 3 Air Horse One
Chelt 2:50 1 Wholestone 2 Death Duty 3 Tommy Rapper
Chelt 3:30 1 Cue Card 2 Djakadam 3 Tea For Two
Chelt 5:30 1 The Game Changer 2 Dodging Bullets 3 Velvet Maker
Probables
Chelt 1:30 1 Defi Du Seuil 2 Master Blueyes 3 Charli Parcs
Chelt 2:10 1 Air Horse One 2 Vosne Romanee 3 Tell Us More
Chelt 2:50 1 Death Duty 2 The Worlds End 3 Wholestone
Chelt 3:30 1 Native River 2 Sizing John 3 Cue Card
Chelt 5:30 1 Theinval 2 Gardefort 3 Pairofbrowneyes
1:30 Price wise Bapaume is the only one of the top three what would be of interest. However I do have problems finding a reason why he can reverse the placings with the winner of his last race. Grasping at straws I could just about put it down a quick return from a hard race the time before. But much as I have liked the race in the past I'm giving it a miss this time around.
2:10 Arctic Fire is the clear class horse and for good measure is the clear class/form horse. He only fails in the forecast requirements and form me that is mainly down to the weight being classed as a negative and the time of the course. He has run well when fresh and the weight just confirms the official handicapper agrees he is a very good horse. His Cheltenham form can't be challenged especially in this class. L'Ami Serge is the only one who can get close class wise and I doubt he has the "bottle" to win a race like this. Air Horse One while there is no doubt he is improving his problem is he defiantly appears to have a right hand bias.Arctic Fire holding firm with my e/w ante post bet.
2:50 Did have a good look at Tommy Rapper based mainly on the price of the other two being tight, and the fact the likely favourite didn't even have an ability rating. However I have decided the course could give Tommy problems,and he does look a bit clumsy. Just hope this isn't another I have spent some time look at and turning down only to see them run screamers!!
3:30 I have always had my doubts about Cue Card coping with the hill over this distance and in this class. One of my biggest worries his best performances have been achieved at Haydock and for many years I have had major doubts about the figures telling the who;e truth and nothing but the truth. I have a small ante post e/w bet on Native River but although he comes out as the strongest probable I'm more than a little stunned to see how far down the class rankings he comes. As it was struck before Christmas I think it is just about worth letting in stand but I wouldn't be interested at the price being offered now.
5;30 Faint heart never won a fair maid or anything else for that matter!! So here we go I'm backing Dodging Bullets he is obviously the class horse by a distance. Can he recapture just a little of his old form he only needs a little of it to win this? I maybe going soft in my old age, but a really don't think the trainer would humiliate the horse, and connections, if he couldn't put in a good one at this meeting. Dodging Bullets small win loaded place.
Be Lucky
Chesham
Sire
Hi
mtoto
It is Arctic Fire's 2nd venture into handicaps and no horse has won off that weight or BHA rating. Age wise only one 8 Y-O has won. I do wonder if he has been put in to compress the weights in favour of his other runners. Arctic Fire was 2nd in this race in 2014 (Aged 5 on BHA 141 and on 158 today)
mtotoIt is Arctic Fire's 2nd venture into handicaps and no horse has won off that weight or BHA rating. Age wise only one 8 Y-O has won. I do wonder if he has been put in to compress the weights in favour of his other runners. Arctic Fire was 2nd in this race in 2014 (Aged 5 on BHA 141 and on 158 today)
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pinemarten
Dam
mtoto
Gelding
Utto 2:25 1 Rock The Kasbah 2 American 3 Crosspark
Kemp 2:40 1 Crimson Ark 2 Golden Spear 3 Divine Spear
Utto 3:35 1 Houblon Des Obeaux 2 Cory 3 Silver Man
Probables
Utto 2:25 1 American 2 Crosspark 3 Rock The Kasbah
Kemp 2:40 1 Bandsman 2 Dream Berry 3 Casper King
Utto 3:35 1 Court Frontier 2 Final Nudge 3 Blakemount
2:25 Nothing here for me. I had backed American at Cheltenham on a none runner money back basis as I really did fancy him. While I think he should win this and I said I would start looking at some shorter price horses. the price is shorter than I would take even now.
2:40 The class of this leaves plenty to be desired, but it is what it is a consultation race. There is very little between the top four on class and three of these look as if they were seriously trained/aimed at Cheltenham. All three based on a slightly different s/f formulation showed they were hitting peak for.Crimson Ark was returning after a five month lay off, and perhaps I'm trying be a little to clever but I'm reading this as it was very unlikely Crimson Ark would get into the/a Cheltenham race based on his OR. Based on that fact/opinion was that last run just a prep to see if Kempton would suit. and this was the real target? While it wouldn't surprise me to see the other two run well the place price on both is quite tight. Crimson Ark small win loaded place.
3:35 Plenty of questions that need to be answered here. Houblon Des Obeaux was the last race so poor because HDO just doesn't like Haydock or has he lost it for now? Cory can he put the amount of letters in his form figures behind him and get around without losing his jockey one way or another? Silver Man will the ground be firm enough for him to run his race as his best figures have been on this course? Based on the fact I don't think the trainer will/would risk damaging him on the wrong going and would pull him out, of these three I would just about side with Silver Man, but only to very small stakes. Silver Man small win loaded place to quarter stakes.
Would just like to thank Arctic Fire as I have had a couple of e-mails asking why I didn't revise my method as they weren't winning. My answer was it has shown it works very well in the past, so why change anything? It will all come right in the end that is if the original logic is good/sound enough. Chopping and changing only leads to confusion, and or muddled thinking. So also a big thank you for those who bothered to look at and read the blog.
Hopefully another grand slam coming up, all we ever needed was a leader who wasn't to bothered about getting under folks skins. Thank you Eddie for bringing a bit of "dog" into the team, all blacks will find out soon, hopefully they won't keep us waiting to long.
Be Lucky
Kemp 2:40 1 Crimson Ark 2 Golden Spear 3 Divine Spear
Utto 3:35 1 Houblon Des Obeaux 2 Cory 3 Silver Man
Probables
Utto 2:25 1 American 2 Crosspark 3 Rock The Kasbah
Kemp 2:40 1 Bandsman 2 Dream Berry 3 Casper King
Utto 3:35 1 Court Frontier 2 Final Nudge 3 Blakemount
2:25 Nothing here for me. I had backed American at Cheltenham on a none runner money back basis as I really did fancy him. While I think he should win this and I said I would start looking at some shorter price horses. the price is shorter than I would take even now.
2:40 The class of this leaves plenty to be desired, but it is what it is a consultation race. There is very little between the top four on class and three of these look as if they were seriously trained/aimed at Cheltenham. All three based on a slightly different s/f formulation showed they were hitting peak for.Crimson Ark was returning after a five month lay off, and perhaps I'm trying be a little to clever but I'm reading this as it was very unlikely Crimson Ark would get into the/a Cheltenham race based on his OR. Based on that fact/opinion was that last run just a prep to see if Kempton would suit. and this was the real target? While it wouldn't surprise me to see the other two run well the place price on both is quite tight. Crimson Ark small win loaded place.
3:35 Plenty of questions that need to be answered here. Houblon Des Obeaux was the last race so poor because HDO just doesn't like Haydock or has he lost it for now? Cory can he put the amount of letters in his form figures behind him and get around without losing his jockey one way or another? Silver Man will the ground be firm enough for him to run his race as his best figures have been on this course? Based on the fact I don't think the trainer will/would risk damaging him on the wrong going and would pull him out, of these three I would just about side with Silver Man, but only to very small stakes. Silver Man small win loaded place to quarter stakes.
Would just like to thank Arctic Fire as I have had a couple of e-mails asking why I didn't revise my method as they weren't winning. My answer was it has shown it works very well in the past, so why change anything? It will all come right in the end that is if the original logic is good/sound enough. Chopping and changing only leads to confusion, and or muddled thinking. So also a big thank you for those who bothered to look at and read the blog.
Hopefully another grand slam coming up, all we ever needed was a leader who wasn't to bothered about getting under folks skins. Thank you Eddie for bringing a bit of "dog" into the team, all blacks will find out soon, hopefully they won't keep us waiting to long.
Be Lucky
ArkRoyal
Administrator
Shocking display, looked clueless to me.
mtoto
Gelding
Newb 2:25 1 Ericht 2 Gala Ball 3 Warriors Tale
Newb 3:00 1 Copper Kay 2 Tara View 3 Hitherjacques Lady
Newb 3:35 1 Don Bersy 2 Templier 3 Dinsdale
Probables
Newb 2:25 1 Warriors Tale 2 Gurkha Brave 3 No Buts
Newb 3:00 1 Tara View 2 Hitherjacques Lady 3 Sister Sibyl
Newb 3:35 1 Don Bersy 2 Dinsdale 3 Buckle Street
While the three races look competitive the two hurdle races appear to lack class, but that could just be because they haven't been tried in higher class, yet!!
2:25 Ericht seems reasonably versatile when it comes to course type, but he does strongly favour the better going. Although he can handle both/most types of courses, his best is on stiff and that would have to be a slight worry when the going is open to discussion. After a deal of thought and time I have decided a place is best that can reasonably be hoped for with him and to go in there I would want a better price,
3:00 While I do think Copper Kay has been laid out for this the price is a little to tight, when you consider there are so many unexposed horses running in it. There is no doubt she should have won at Warwick but I doubt they will let her idle like that with this prize at stake.
3:35 The worry about Templier is the course but looking at his last race it was only a trial to find out how good he was before they decided about Cheltenham. If they had even considered Cheltenham they must have been happy in their own minds he didn't need tight course to show his best, but there is still the lack of undulations to worry about. On proven form he is the class horse the only horse with proven form in a higher class in the race. He needs to be ridden with a little more restraint, but the stable will know that. After quite a bit of soul searching I'm giving the first two races a miss, and only backing Templier small win loaded place,
Shocking display, looked clueless to me.
ArkRoyal I was as disappointed as everyone else but I do think tour words are a little harsh. It must be remembered the Irish finished the All Blacks winning run and they did that away from home. On Saturday they were at home on St Patrick's day and played out of their skins, yes we should have done better but clueless 
Out played on the day 
Be Lucky
Newb 3:00 1 Copper Kay 2 Tara View 3 Hitherjacques Lady
Newb 3:35 1 Don Bersy 2 Templier 3 Dinsdale
Probables
Newb 2:25 1 Warriors Tale 2 Gurkha Brave 3 No Buts
Newb 3:00 1 Tara View 2 Hitherjacques Lady 3 Sister Sibyl
Newb 3:35 1 Don Bersy 2 Dinsdale 3 Buckle Street
While the three races look competitive the two hurdle races appear to lack class, but that could just be because they haven't been tried in higher class, yet!!
2:25 Ericht seems reasonably versatile when it comes to course type, but he does strongly favour the better going. Although he can handle both/most types of courses, his best is on stiff and that would have to be a slight worry when the going is open to discussion. After a deal of thought and time I have decided a place is best that can reasonably be hoped for with him and to go in there I would want a better price,
3:00 While I do think Copper Kay has been laid out for this the price is a little to tight, when you consider there are so many unexposed horses running in it. There is no doubt she should have won at Warwick but I doubt they will let her idle like that with this prize at stake.
3:35 The worry about Templier is the course but looking at his last race it was only a trial to find out how good he was before they decided about Cheltenham. If they had even considered Cheltenham they must have been happy in their own minds he didn't need tight course to show his best, but there is still the lack of undulations to worry about. On proven form he is the class horse the only horse with proven form in a higher class in the race. He needs to be ridden with a little more restraint, but the stable will know that. After quite a bit of soul searching I'm giving the first two races a miss, and only backing Templier small win loaded place,
Shocking display, looked clueless to me.
ArkRoyal I was as disappointed as everyone else but I do think tour words are a little harsh. It must be remembered the Irish finished the All Blacks winning run and they did that away from home. On Saturday they were at home on St Patrick's day and played out of their skins, yes we should have done better but clueless Out played on the day Be Lucky
mtoto
Gelding
Don 2:25 1 Examiner 2 Strong Steps 3 Nimr
Don 3:00 1 Dark Emerald 2 Stormy Antarctic 3 Cymric
Don 3:35 1 Yuften 2 Master Carpenter 3 Top Notch Tonto
Probables
Don 2:25 1 Nimr 2 Sacred Act 3 Swift Emperor
Don 3:00 1 Crazy Horse 2 Kool Kompany 3 Dawn Of Hope
Don 3:35 1Oh This Is Us 2 George Cinq 3 Yuften
As I have friends coming for the day and won't be able to concentrate on the racing I will just be marking the horse that took my eye. As usual this is based mainly on the price at this time, and under normal circumstances MAYBE eliminated for different reasons.
2:25 The two that are/were of interest here are Examiner and Strong Steps
3:00 Dark Emerald needs some investigation to find out if he has really lost his form or is it an illusion bought about by running on unsuitable conditions?
3:35 This race had been looked at in more detail as I had an ante post bet that in now a none runner. Yuften's form ties up with the horse I backed and as such I think he has to be respected, but the price is far to short for me now. For me there are slight doubts re the course and going for this horse and the price certainly doesn't allow for any doubts. Course wise there is little doubt the other two Master Carpenter and Top Notch Tonto are well served by the course and both have very good form over the 10f . Of the two I think the going will slightly favour the chippy, but I'm not really convinced by the jockey although I'm sure she will do everything she possibly in this big race on a Saturday and on the television. Looking at the trainers she has ridden for someone thinks highly of her. IF I can find a couple of spare minutes I would consider a small win loaded place.
Be Lucky
Don 3:00 1 Dark Emerald 2 Stormy Antarctic 3 Cymric
Don 3:35 1 Yuften 2 Master Carpenter 3 Top Notch Tonto
Probables
Don 2:25 1 Nimr 2 Sacred Act 3 Swift Emperor
Don 3:00 1 Crazy Horse 2 Kool Kompany 3 Dawn Of Hope
Don 3:35 1Oh This Is Us 2 George Cinq 3 Yuften
As I have friends coming for the day and won't be able to concentrate on the racing I will just be marking the horse that took my eye. As usual this is based mainly on the price at this time, and under normal circumstances MAYBE eliminated for different reasons.
2:25 The two that are/were of interest here are Examiner and Strong Steps
3:00 Dark Emerald needs some investigation to find out if he has really lost his form or is it an illusion bought about by running on unsuitable conditions?
3:35 This race had been looked at in more detail as I had an ante post bet that in now a none runner. Yuften's form ties up with the horse I backed and as such I think he has to be respected, but the price is far to short for me now. For me there are slight doubts re the course and going for this horse and the price certainly doesn't allow for any doubts. Course wise there is little doubt the other two Master Carpenter and Top Notch Tonto are well served by the course and both have very good form over the 10f . Of the two I think the going will slightly favour the chippy, but I'm not really convinced by the jockey although I'm sure she will do everything she possibly in this big race on a Saturday and on the television. Looking at the trainers she has ridden for someone thinks highly of her. IF I can find a couple of spare minutes I would consider a small win loaded place.
Be Lucky
mtoto
Gelding
Aintree 2:20 1 Defi Du Seuil 2 Forth Bridge 3 Flying Tiger
Aintree 4:40 1 Foxtail Hill 2 Dandridge 3 Yorkist
Probables
Aintree 2:20 1 Defi Du Seuil 2 Forth Bridge 3 Flying Tiger
Aintree 4:40 1 Foxtail Hill 2 Rock On Rocky 3 Gino Trail
2:20 Defi Du Seuil ticks nearly all the boxes apart from the really important one for me the price. Is there a weakness, the only slight query is is he as good on a flat course without the undulations? All his best form has been on undulating course and he has only once been raced on a flat course, of course he won that but looking at the race he would have won it on three legs.Forth Bridge looks as if he has been saved/targeted for this and looking at his form avoiding Cheltenham looks sensible. His best runs have been on a flat speed courses. So while there isn't the worry re the course the slight worry here is the going as his best has been on good going and he was beaten on the soft. Now that may/could have been down to lack of experience, but the place price isn't good enough to take a risk. No Bet.
4:40 Both of the top two rated figures are based on stiff course but both have proven form on flatter courses. Both ran at Cheltenham and until other factors kick in there is very little between them, only Foxtail Hill's fall stops the run being a form run so Dandridge has the edge there. The drop in distance may not be a problem looking at Foxtail's running style if they don't take him of his feet early on but the trainer has always bothered me in as much as I often wonder if he really knows what his horses are really capable of. Yorkist while he should like the flat course, his results here say something very different, a different trainer just maybe able to sort that out. Another race I'm leaving alone.
In answer to a couple of e-mails no I didn't get back in time to back/watch Master Carpenter on Saturday. While I don't like blaming jockeys for losing rides I have to say his rider did show a serious lack of experience/know how. She did manage to just about put the horse in the race but for some reason didn't follow the more experienced jockeys moving to the other side of the track. He had shown the stamina to handle such a move if it had been done in time. All in all a good to fair run, and I will be looking out for him in hcps on speed courses later on.
Be Lucky
Aintree 4:40 1 Foxtail Hill 2 Dandridge 3 Yorkist
Probables
Aintree 2:20 1 Defi Du Seuil 2 Forth Bridge 3 Flying Tiger
Aintree 4:40 1 Foxtail Hill 2 Rock On Rocky 3 Gino Trail
2:20 Defi Du Seuil ticks nearly all the boxes apart from the really important one for me the price. Is there a weakness, the only slight query is is he as good on a flat course without the undulations? All his best form has been on undulating course and he has only once been raced on a flat course, of course he won that but looking at the race he would have won it on three legs.Forth Bridge looks as if he has been saved/targeted for this and looking at his form avoiding Cheltenham looks sensible. His best runs have been on a flat speed courses. So while there isn't the worry re the course the slight worry here is the going as his best has been on good going and he was beaten on the soft. Now that may/could have been down to lack of experience, but the place price isn't good enough to take a risk. No Bet.
4:40 Both of the top two rated figures are based on stiff course but both have proven form on flatter courses. Both ran at Cheltenham and until other factors kick in there is very little between them, only Foxtail Hill's fall stops the run being a form run so Dandridge has the edge there. The drop in distance may not be a problem looking at Foxtail's running style if they don't take him of his feet early on but the trainer has always bothered me in as much as I often wonder if he really knows what his horses are really capable of. Yorkist while he should like the flat course, his results here say something very different, a different trainer just maybe able to sort that out. Another race I'm leaving alone.
In answer to a couple of e-mails no I didn't get back in time to back/watch Master Carpenter on Saturday. While I don't like blaming jockeys for losing rides I have to say his rider did show a serious lack of experience/know how. She did manage to just about put the horse in the race but for some reason didn't follow the more experienced jockeys moving to the other side of the track. He had shown the stamina to handle such a move if it had been done in time. All in all a good to fair run, and I will be looking out for him in hcps on speed courses later on.
Be Lucky
mtoto
Gelding
Aintree 1:40 1 North Hill Harvey 2 Ice Cold Soul 3 Runswick Royal
Aintree 2:20 1 River Wylde 2 High Secret 3 Mount Mews
Aintree 3:25 1 Fox Norton 2 Sub Lieutenant 3 God's Own
Aintree 4:05 1 Irish Cavalier 2 Eastlake 3 As De Mee
Aintree 4:40 1 Debece 2 The Worlds End 3 Constantine Bay
Probables
Aintree 1:40 1 Runswick Royal 2 Rather Be 3 Allee Bleue
Aintree 2:20 1 Mount Mews 2 Moon Racer 3 The Unit
Aintree 3:25 1 Fox Norton 2 Sub Lieutenant 3 Royal Regatta
Aintree 4:05 1 Mr Diablo 2 Imjoeking 3 As De Mee
Aintree 4:40 1 The Worlds End 2 Debece 3 Straidnahanna
1:40 North Hill Harvey's profile seems to suggest he prefers stiff courses and going with give in it. Ice Cold Soul, don't really know what to make of this horse, Its winning form and connections say it has to be respected but the cross check suggests it has plenty to find. I have no idea how/if Leopardstown's configuration is anything like Aintree and if the form will stand up but it has to be noted they missed Cheltenham for this ? Runswick Royal does have good form on this course and has the type of stable profile I like, a good horse trained by a none face otherwise it would be a much shorter price . As with every selection there are doubts /worries and with him the worry is has chasing blunted his hurdling speed. A question that has to be asked as his recent figures after the chasing campaign are a little slower than those before he started. On the early figures he is right in there, there again it could have just been the heavy going slowing him down. Runswick Royal small win loaded place
2:20 & 3:25 due to the prices neither are betting races for me.
4:05 I'm taking a chance here as both of the top two ranked are a bit of a law into themselves, both are capable, but I don't think even the trainers know which side of the bed the horse got out of!! Of the two I think Irish Cavalier is much the better horses and the course going etc should suit Early in his career it looked as if stiff courses was the order of the day, but as he has go older he doesn't seem to like the battle up the hills. So Irish Cavalier small win loaded place to half stakes.
4:40 Debece I read many months ago this would be the target. Trainer suggested he was a better horse on better going and he would wait for the spring. The Newbury run was just a prep for this, and I think the trainer was pleasantly surprised how well he went even though the going wasn't really suitable. The Worlds End, the question here is does this horse need the undulations to show his best, if he does I don't think he will beat Constantine Bay. For me Constantine Bay didn't handle Cheltenham very well. Debece small win loaded place.
I still don't really understand why folk send me e-mails when asking about the blog, for me this is the place to ask questions. However I will try to answer a few here and now.
First I'm asked doesn't the probables just add to the confusion. Well for me no, they are a completely separate stand alone part of the consistency method. If I have a race like the 4:05 I know it is wide open with at least six horses high lighted with a good to fair chance. The way my spreadsheet is set out I can see at a glance any/all horses that are in with a mathematical chance and I then have to sort those out, but it can be seen at a glance saving time.
I 'm also asked why at times I don't answer/acknowledge some questions/ ideas etc. Here I can only think they are talking about the likes of
Chesham remark .................I think that you are wise to swerve Copper Kay as the Price Disparity is a vey dodgy 3.17 times its Implied Price. Here the very simple fact is I don't really understand what the passage means. If folk read the blog they will see I'm not in the slightest interested in what other punters think about a horses chances. I decided not to back the horse because I thought the price was too tight when everything else was taken into consideration and for that reason only. I do try to answer any questions if I can, but as Chesham is a trends man I have no answer that can be used when he says a horse has never won the race carrying that sort of weight. That doesn't ever enter my thinking, the nearest I will ever come to that is thinking a horse may have been flattered by the figures awarded. Because of that it may well be carrying more weight than it should but weight as such never comes into my equation, it just has a false ability measurement.
Be Lucky
Aintree 2:20 1 River Wylde 2 High Secret 3 Mount Mews
Aintree 3:25 1 Fox Norton 2 Sub Lieutenant 3 God's Own
Aintree 4:05 1 Irish Cavalier 2 Eastlake 3 As De Mee
Aintree 4:40 1 Debece 2 The Worlds End 3 Constantine Bay
Probables
Aintree 1:40 1 Runswick Royal 2 Rather Be 3 Allee Bleue
Aintree 2:20 1 Mount Mews 2 Moon Racer 3 The Unit
Aintree 3:25 1 Fox Norton 2 Sub Lieutenant 3 Royal Regatta
Aintree 4:05 1 Mr Diablo 2 Imjoeking 3 As De Mee
Aintree 4:40 1 The Worlds End 2 Debece 3 Straidnahanna
1:40 North Hill Harvey's profile seems to suggest he prefers stiff courses and going with give in it. Ice Cold Soul, don't really know what to make of this horse, Its winning form and connections say it has to be respected but the cross check suggests it has plenty to find. I have no idea how/if Leopardstown's configuration is anything like Aintree and if the form will stand up but it has to be noted they missed Cheltenham for this ? Runswick Royal does have good form on this course and has the type of stable profile I like, a good horse trained by a none face otherwise it would be a much shorter price . As with every selection there are doubts /worries and with him the worry is has chasing blunted his hurdling speed. A question that has to be asked as his recent figures after the chasing campaign are a little slower than those before he started. On the early figures he is right in there, there again it could have just been the heavy going slowing him down. Runswick Royal small win loaded place
2:20 & 3:25 due to the prices neither are betting races for me.
4:05 I'm taking a chance here as both of the top two ranked are a bit of a law into themselves, both are capable, but I don't think even the trainers know which side of the bed the horse got out of!! Of the two I think Irish Cavalier is much the better horses and the course going etc should suit Early in his career it looked as if stiff courses was the order of the day, but as he has go older he doesn't seem to like the battle up the hills. So Irish Cavalier small win loaded place to half stakes.
4:40 Debece I read many months ago this would be the target. Trainer suggested he was a better horse on better going and he would wait for the spring. The Newbury run was just a prep for this, and I think the trainer was pleasantly surprised how well he went even though the going wasn't really suitable. The Worlds End, the question here is does this horse need the undulations to show his best, if he does I don't think he will beat Constantine Bay. For me Constantine Bay didn't handle Cheltenham very well. Debece small win loaded place.
I still don't really understand why folk send me e-mails when asking about the blog, for me this is the place to ask questions. However I will try to answer a few here and now.
First I'm asked doesn't the probables just add to the confusion. Well for me no, they are a completely separate stand alone part of the consistency method. If I have a race like the 4:05 I know it is wide open with at least six horses high lighted with a good to fair chance. The way my spreadsheet is set out I can see at a glance any/all horses that are in with a mathematical chance and I then have to sort those out, but it can be seen at a glance saving time.
I 'm also asked why at times I don't answer/acknowledge some questions/ ideas etc. Here I can only think they are talking about the likes of
Chesham remark .................I think that you are wise to swerve Copper Kay as the Price Disparity is a vey dodgy 3.17 times its Implied Price. Here the very simple fact is I don't really understand what the passage means. If folk read the blog they will see I'm not in the slightest interested in what other punters think about a horses chances. I decided not to back the horse because I thought the price was too tight when everything else was taken into consideration and for that reason only. I do try to answer any questions if I can, but as Chesham is a trends man I have no answer that can be used when he says a horse has never won the race carrying that sort of weight. That doesn't ever enter my thinking, the nearest I will ever come to that is thinking a horse may have been flattered by the figures awarded. Because of that it may well be carrying more weight than it should but weight as such never comes into my equation, it just has a false ability measurement.Be Lucky
mick
Sire
Hi
mtoto Re your last para above,bottom line your blog so your business, but i wonder if "not having the slightest interest in what other members think about a horses chance" is costing you some well intended contributions.? When i offer my reasons for backing one my money is already being placed so while i will not be influenced by another opinion i am usually interested in reading it because even with a proven method there are often things to be learned which can enhance the prospects of further improvement.? 
mtoto Re your last para above,bottom line your blog so your business, but i wonder if "not having the slightest interest in what other members think about a horses chance" is costing you some well intended contributions.? When i offer my reasons for backing one my money is already being placed so while i will not be influenced by another opinion i am usually interested in reading it because even with a proven method there are often things to be learned which can enhance the prospects of further improvement.?
mtoto
Gelding
Re your last para above,bottom line your blog so your business, but i wonder if "not having the slightest interest in what other members think about a horses chance" is costing you some well intended contributions.
mick I'm not sure how I seem to word the posts incorrectly. What I meant to say is when I look at the market for me it is just a list of horses where others for whatever reason have given their ideas of a horses chances. It is this that holds no interest for me as those chances/ideas are not explained and at times have nothing or very little to do with actual form. There are folk on here that give their thoughts on a race without giving reasons for the final selections and that is fair enough but in most cases they also show their ratings. The live market does none of this and that is why I'm not interested. Reading my first post again it didn't say members, here I'm talking about the general public (punters) I can't ask or answer them, members are always welcome and I will explain antthing if I understand the question/remark
I think the Ground may be against Runswick Royal
Chesham I did have a look at the going and did wonder but in the Racing Post it said Runswick Royal ran its best race of that season on good going at Aintree. After seeing your post I did check again and then checked using the Life there it said good to soft. Did Timeform say something different?
Be Lucky
mick I'm not sure how I seem to word the posts incorrectly. What I meant to say is when I look at the market for me it is just a list of horses where others for whatever reason have given their ideas of a horses chances. It is this that holds no interest for me as those chances/ideas are not explained and at times have nothing or very little to do with actual form. There are folk on here that give their thoughts on a race without giving reasons for the final selections and that is fair enough but in most cases they also show their ratings. The live market does none of this and that is why I'm not interested. Reading my first post again it didn't say members, here I'm talking about the general public (punters) I can't ask or answer them, members are always welcome and I will explain antthing if I understand the question/remarkI think the Ground may be against Runswick Royal
Chesham I did have a look at the going and did wonder but in the Racing Post it said Runswick Royal ran its best race of that season on good going at Aintree. After seeing your post I did check again and then checked using the Life there it said good to soft. Did Timeform say something different?Be Lucky
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