Dicko's Scraper
- Thread starter dicko14
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dicko14
Dam
First thing we notice is the big discrepancy in the odds with Pause and Clause. The RP has it as 7.5 which isnt too far off my projected odds of 6.87 but at the time of posting was 15.0.
Lundy Sky looks a place prospect as the current odds of 21.0 are double what my scraper forecasts.
Gormanstown Cuckoo looks to be about the right price.
Open Day is half the odds it should be.
Radmores Revenge is about right.
Coup Royale is a little under priced but maybe theres a reason for that.
The Jugopolist is definitely the wrong price and is still shortening ???
The RP tissue had Lava Lamp as a 4.5 shot but the screenshot shows it as a 3.25 chance.The scraper has it as 8.12
The others are non players as such.
Will see how the resulting odds turn out after the race.
Lundy Sky looks a place prospect as the current odds of 21.0 are double what my scraper forecasts.
Gormanstown Cuckoo looks to be about the right price.
Open Day is half the odds it should be.
Radmores Revenge is about right.
Coup Royale is a little under priced but maybe theres a reason for that.
The Jugopolist is definitely the wrong price and is still shortening ???
The RP tissue had Lava Lamp as a 4.5 shot but the screenshot shows it as a 3.25 chance.The scraper has it as 8.12
The others are non players as such.
Will see how the resulting odds turn out after the race.
dicko14
Dam
Ashlene
Thanks for your kind words.
Lets see how the race worked out.
Pause and Clause was obviously not at the races today as the prices indicated.
Lundy Sky ran well enough but tired badly after being up with the pace for most of the race, my odds were half of the s.p. so i will put this one in my notebook for future reference.
Gormanstown Cuckoo was returned 17/2, not too far off the correct odds.
Open Day won this race and as the odds were half of mine the hint should have been taken.
Radmores Revenge was around the right price.
Coup Royale was wrongly priced in the morning tissue and was actually more like my odds at the off.
The Jugopolist was sent off at half the correct odds and ran poorly.
Lava Lamp started the 3.25 fav but was never a value bet in my opinion, eventually being beaten more than 17 lengths.
Thanks for your kind words.
Lets see how the race worked out.
Pause and Clause was obviously not at the races today as the prices indicated.
Lundy Sky ran well enough but tired badly after being up with the pace for most of the race, my odds were half of the s.p. so i will put this one in my notebook for future reference.
Gormanstown Cuckoo was returned 17/2, not too far off the correct odds.
Open Day won this race and as the odds were half of mine the hint should have been taken.
Radmores Revenge was around the right price.
Coup Royale was wrongly priced in the morning tissue and was actually more like my odds at the off.
The Jugopolist was sent off at half the correct odds and ran poorly.
Lava Lamp started the 3.25 fav but was never a value bet in my opinion, eventually being beaten more than 17 lengths.
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ArkRoyal
Administrator
Just want to play Devils advocate here Dave.
Why should you have taken the hint on Open Day and not the Jugopolist?
dicko14 said:Open Day won this race and as the odds were half of mine the hint should have been taken.
The Jugopolist was sent off at half the correct odds and ran poorly.
Why should you have taken the hint on Open Day and not the Jugopolist?
dicko14
Dam
Good question Kev
From my way at looking at the sheet OD was the Topspeed horse but was shorter in the s.p.forecast than the scraper tissue. Why should this be?
"suited by further and can yet exploit his current mark" Racing Post analysis from Cheltenham 2 runs back.
Open Day: Found uncompetitive 2m Leicester handicap when successful on second run back from absence in November (soft) and achieved every bit as much in defeat behind an improver in better Cheltenham 2m1f contest; Warwick´s sharper 2m not ideal the last time and probably wants this sort of trip now. Today's RP comments.
TJ only had the scraper tissue as an indicator. Form check shows 2 pulled up efforts in handicaps.Trainer may be planning a coup with this one as a look through his form over hurdles sees a very good hurdles run behind Whisper who isnt that far off the top. Hence the need to switch back to novice hurdles.
The Jugopolist: Winning debut over hurdles at Uttoxeter in October and couple of fair efforts novice hurdling in defeat since then; however, finding handicaps a very different proposition and having pulled up in both of them hard to make much of a case right now.
Bear in mind the scraper is just another way of looking at a racecard in a paper. What is intended is to give indicators to the main protagonists within the field. It wasnt intended to be a final selectional tool. Sometimes the clues are obvious and no more effort is needed, more often than not we still need to do the homework!
Hope this helps understand how I use the scraper.
From my way at looking at the sheet OD was the Topspeed horse but was shorter in the s.p.forecast than the scraper tissue. Why should this be?
"suited by further and can yet exploit his current mark" Racing Post analysis from Cheltenham 2 runs back.
Open Day: Found uncompetitive 2m Leicester handicap when successful on second run back from absence in November (soft) and achieved every bit as much in defeat behind an improver in better Cheltenham 2m1f contest; Warwick´s sharper 2m not ideal the last time and probably wants this sort of trip now. Today's RP comments.
TJ only had the scraper tissue as an indicator. Form check shows 2 pulled up efforts in handicaps.Trainer may be planning a coup with this one as a look through his form over hurdles sees a very good hurdles run behind Whisper who isnt that far off the top. Hence the need to switch back to novice hurdles.
The Jugopolist: Winning debut over hurdles at Uttoxeter in October and couple of fair efforts novice hurdling in defeat since then; however, finding handicaps a very different proposition and having pulled up in both of them hard to make much of a case right now.
Bear in mind the scraper is just another way of looking at a racecard in a paper. What is intended is to give indicators to the main protagonists within the field. It wasnt intended to be a final selectional tool. Sometimes the clues are obvious and no more effort is needed, more often than not we still need to do the homework!
Hope this helps understand how I use the scraper.
dicko14
Dam
10/1 winner today. just shy of top spot on RPR and top on speed with increased speed performances and a scraper tissue of 7 rather than the s.p.tissue of 11 put this one on the short list.Winner of Class 5 and Class 4 races before 2 unsuccessful Class 3 runs then dropping back to Class 4 today.
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dicko14
Dam
Another tricky race but Illbefrank and Trouble in Paris maybe the ones to side with.
Frank has 3 good indicators and if he can put a rather lack lustre performance in his last run behind him would be a very good place prospect.
Trouble in Paris looks well handicapped and is the type to improve again.
Folie au Deux would be another to consider.
Frank has 3 good indicators and if he can put a rather lack lustre performance in his last run behind him would be a very good place prospect.
Trouble in Paris looks well handicapped and is the type to improve again.
Folie au Deux would be another to consider.
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dicko14
Dam
Back For Tea: Longstanding maiden who´s landed the outside stall back into handicap company; place probably the best he can hope for.
Blue Noodles: String of consistent efforts in cheekpieces this year and it will fall right one day; however, losing run now up to 27 and he´s again more likely to finish placed than stick his head in front.
Boy The Bell: Latest Southwell defeat easily forgiven and had been running well over C&D previously; often misses the kick and usually reliant on a bit of luck, but still one of the likelier winners switched from blinkers to first-time visor.
Cadmium Lock Previous C&D winner who´s come back to form of late, finging 5f too sharp here when last seen; had gone close for tonight´s jockey off 2lb lower previously and no complaints on the draw front.
Dvinsky: Long time since he won away from Kempton and been quiet of late, even allowing for a couple of wide draws; bit of a surprise to see him pop up tonight.
Harvest Mist: C&D winner off 4lb lower in January and 7lb claimer up tonight having been held as favourite at Kempton last time; tongue tie on for first time and one of the likelier winners.
Medam: Two wins come here over 6f in the summer, both off lower marks; fair Lingfield comeback a fortnight ago, also without the tongue tie, should have brought her on but a wide draw to deal with up in trip.
Michael´s Nook: Will be happier back at this trip/on this surface but couple of expensive defeats since winning off 4lb lower in January; should run his race but might need a bit of luck once dropped in from stall 9.
Schoolboy Champ: Had plenty of chances at a similar level in recent times and a long time since he even made the frame; no more than outside claims once again
Blue Noodles: String of consistent efforts in cheekpieces this year and it will fall right one day; however, losing run now up to 27 and he´s again more likely to finish placed than stick his head in front.
Boy The Bell: Latest Southwell defeat easily forgiven and had been running well over C&D previously; often misses the kick and usually reliant on a bit of luck, but still one of the likelier winners switched from blinkers to first-time visor.
Cadmium Lock Previous C&D winner who´s come back to form of late, finging 5f too sharp here when last seen; had gone close for tonight´s jockey off 2lb lower previously and no complaints on the draw front.
Dvinsky: Long time since he won away from Kempton and been quiet of late, even allowing for a couple of wide draws; bit of a surprise to see him pop up tonight.
Harvest Mist: C&D winner off 4lb lower in January and 7lb claimer up tonight having been held as favourite at Kempton last time; tongue tie on for first time and one of the likelier winners.
Medam: Two wins come here over 6f in the summer, both off lower marks; fair Lingfield comeback a fortnight ago, also without the tongue tie, should have brought her on but a wide draw to deal with up in trip.
Michael´s Nook: Will be happier back at this trip/on this surface but couple of expensive defeats since winning off 4lb lower in January; should run his race but might need a bit of luck once dropped in from stall 9.
Schoolboy Champ: Had plenty of chances at a similar level in recent times and a long time since he even made the frame; no more than outside claims once again
