• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

I did it my way

Mtoto,

Hopefully I can throw a bit of light on the whole subject and bring about something thought provoking.

If you can appreciate that VDW drip fed his method over time to tackle issues as he went along.
To assist you he posted a formula:
Consistent Form + Ability + Capabilty + Probability + Hard Work = Winners.
The whole method is based around consistency,even the class.
If you look closely at the early letters, they focus predominately on consistency, forget about weight and ratings,if you look at these areas,they are not expanded on fully.

SIAO although he does actually spell it out,but a lot are either subliminal or rhetorical statements(they are all over the books to) refering to the 2nd numerical, so when you are questioning a particular illustration, you are not judging the whole method.
I do believe a bit of pressure was applied to calm the baying wolves, I also think you are right about TP trying to improve the readership, remember he was the editor.
The first numerical picture concentrates solely on the individual horse, ask yourself the question how can you possibly find winners at a high strike rate by just using an individual horse in isolation, this is the top surface of the books.
The 2nd numerical alleviates the issue by measuring what is around the individual horse, it is imperative with any form reading to have a measure of the horses run against, if you have not got that how on earth can you know how strong its form is.

It may be the only thing that I agree with Fulham on, but yes VDW was a clever sole and it is only when you find it and you have time to reflect on it that you understand why.
Let me try and expand a little more, firstly speed ratings have no real bearing on the subject,even if you think they are to compile lists, I can tell you that they are not even for that, to compile lists you have to go and inspect the form from the previous seasons,but this I may touch on, or even compile the set for next years racing.

There is more to it that just the 2nd numerical,there is the way he eliminates horses,also how he views class.


What you appear to of missed was Beacon Light was the class/form horse when he was beaten by Sea Pigeon,this tells you he was on a decline from a VDW view,but there are relevant factors that show this to be true,I like you at one stage thought how could a horse with the numbers like BL possibly be a non form horse.
It is simplistic in application,so overcomplicating it just muddys the water, it can be time consuming,but I am sure a portion of it can be automated.

I hope I have given away a little bit more than your old adversaries
 
Bobba,

First can I say my reply isn't made in a hurry, and without giving your post the respect it warrants. However for me at least you have said nothing I haven't heard before, so as I have heard it I haven't had to go away and think about I have already done that.

The first numerical picture concentrates solely on the individual horse, ask yourself the question how can you possibly find winners at a high strike rate by just using an individual horse in isolation, this is the top surface of the books.

Surely if this is done correctly for each individual horse a second picture adds nothing new to the equation. You have been given a numerical picture that shows what a horse can do at its best, that is every horse in a given race. If the conditions are then checked for EVERY horse and the form read in detail an accurate ability rating will show if the conditions are suitable. What I fail to see is how the rating based on money won can show which conditions suit a horse best. There is no guide to which was the best performance, surely performance has to equal form.

Let me try and expand a little more, firstly speed ratings have no real bearing on the subject,even if you think they are to compile lists, I can tell you that they are not even for that, to compile lists you have to go and inspect the form from the previous seasons,but this I may touch on, or even compile the set for next years racing.


I not sure VDW agrees with you here, he said ......" The important thing is to establish proven ability and here a previous speed figure of 80 plus, should give a reasonable base." He also suggest that horses can be added to the lists based on current form. Yes the details of any race have to be studied and not just taken at face value, but I still can't see how you can say VDW didn't use speed figures to gauge ability.

What you appear to of missed was Beacon Light was the class/form horse when he was beaten by Sea Pigeon,this tells you he was on a decline from a VDW view,but there are relevant factors that show this to be true,I like you at one stage thought how could a horse with the numbers like BL possibly be a non form horse.


First can I point out I have never said BL was a none form horse, I say his form just wasn't up to winning that Erin, and the figures show that. I also have Sea Pigeon as the class form horse in the Sandown race and have to say based on his figures he (SP) WOULDN'T have been the selection for the Erin. You say there are relevant factors that confirm BL's decline, again I say I can't find any factor that has not be excused in other examples?!

Let me try and expand a little more, firstly speed ratings have no real bearing on the subject

As someone who has stated in the past VDW never said or did anything without reason can you explain why if as you say S/F were not important did VDW have records of s'f going back over 10 years? Why the continual reminder that speed without form is useless. Why would he go out of his way to keep pointing it out, why not just say it isn't important forget about it. Even when he goes out of his way to show the possible short coming/flaws in s/f he ends by saying..........."What the clock says at the end of a race may not appear to tell the whole story, but it gives enough when interpreted and used to best advantage to provide one of the most useful means of evaluation".

Be Lucky
 
Mtoto,

It is once again, interesting that you have cherry picked sentences for putting your point across and completely ignored the rest.

There is more to the 2nd numerical than you think, more than what I conveyed to you a while back, like I have said, I have moved on

Also, you are happy to flaunt all sorts of lines from the books in order to support your theory, yet you completely ignore the fact that VDW said that speed ratings should be used as a GUIDE, let me now show you one of your lines to explain my point.

"What the clock says at the end of a race may not appear to tell the whole story, but it gives enough when interpreted and used to best advantage to provide one of the most useful means of evaluation".

Definition of USEFUL:

adjective
1. being of use or service; serving some purpose; advantageous, helpful, or of good effect: a useful member of society.
2. of practical use, as for doing work; producing material results; supplying common needs: the useful arts; useful work.

You can see clearly how vague the word USEFUL is, it goes hand in hand with the word GUIDE, which also another vague word, hence only using them in this way,if you cannot see what I am putting across.

We are never going to see eye to eye on this and I do not intend trying to push my opinion across all the time,it becomes tiresome and painful.
 
Hi Mtoto,

Would you say that IF Beacon Light was the Class/Form horse when beaten by Sea Pigeon then this would be an indication that his form was on the decline?

AR
 
[quote author=nagwa board=vdw thread=46 post=6777 time=1352226628]i might be wrong but didnt mtoto say sea pigeon was the class/form horse in the race.. ark royal[/quote]

Yes he did say that. Thats why I emphasised the IF.
I think the question is still valid.
 
Sylitchfield:

Pardon me if I'm a step or two behind the parade, ::)but I'm assuming you guys have looked at
Code: 
www.vanderwheil.com

Every race for every day is assessed by the look of things
Click to expand...
 
Also, you are happy to flaunt all sorts of lines from the books in order to support your theory, yet you completely ignore the fact that VDW said that speed ratings should be used as a GUIDE, let me now show you one of your lines to explain my point.

Bobba,

Sorry, but I must be missing something here, didn't VDW say ALL rating are just a guide? That must included the ability rating he introduced and showed in SIAO. I have said before and will say again I use this other measurement of ability in the same way as VDW suggested. It is a guide to the horses ability and isn't take on face value ALL the other factors VDW suggest in the Little Owl example are applied to these rating. The top rated is passed over if one of the other rated looks stronger when these elements are examined

We are never going to see eye to eye on this and I do not intend trying to push my opinion across all the time,it becomes tiresome and painful.

I don't quite understand why you can't see the only problem between us in an interpretation of the written word in the literature. As this happens all the time in other walks of life it shouldn't really be a problem. All I'm trying to do is explain my take on the subject and I'm willing to answer question to explain my thinking. The only way I can do that is to give reasons for my thinking, I'm not interested in trying to score points against you or anyone.


Ark,

Would you say that IF Beacon Light was the Class/Form horse when beaten by Sea Pigeon then this would be an indication that his form was on the decline?

The short answer to that is no, one substandard run wouldn't/ doesn't not confirm a decline in form. That is my answer and my take on reading the literature is VDW would think the same. VDW didn't that often actually state such and such was the class form horse in the races he talked about, let alone say if a horse was the class form horse last time out. However he did put up horses as selections that had been beaten in their last race so just being beaten wasn't an automatic out of form reason. With these horses folk had to judge for themselves whether or not it was a poor/bad run. In most cases where VDW had selected them folk found reasons to forgive that run. In the case of BL all the reasons used to forgive can be found, but as VDW didn't select the consistent horse that was top on ability he HAD to be out of form. They just forget VDW said he was well out of it on the ratings he used.

Be Lucky
 
OK Mtoto,

Point taken, but I still am not going to push my opinion across, I will sit back and let others get involved.



Just for the record.


Mtoto:

The short answer to that is no, one substandard run wouldn't/ doesn't not confirm a decline in form. That is my answer and my take on reading the literature is VDW would think the same. VDW didn't that often actually state such and such was the class form horse in the races he talked about, let alone say if a horse was the class form horse last time out. However he did put up horses as selections that had been beaten in their last race so just being beaten wasn't an automatic out of form reason. With these horses folk had to judge for themselves whether or not it was a poor/bad run. In most cases where VDW had selected them folk found reasons to forgive that run. In the case of BL all the reasons used to forgive can be found, but as VDW didn't select the consistent horse that was top on ability he HAD to be out of form. They just forget VDW said he was well out of it on the ratings he used.
Click to expand...

I have already explained, when a horse is beat there are easily identifiable facts that surround the horse that tell you why it was beaten.
.... 'reasons to forgive' , how logical is that?.
VDW told you to remove all emotion, you clearly do not do this.

I will leave you to get on with it
bowdown.gif
 
Bob,

I think you have taken Mtoto's words out of context. I believe he is saying that others say that BL had to be out of form as otherwise it would be the selection and that the reasons they say BL was out of form are inconsistent with other VDW selections ie other selections had the characteristic that made BL out of form :-/

Apologies if I am just muddying the water
 
its a game of opinions without the link no rights no wrongs just opinions without them its just speculation
 
Hello Johnny,

You got my PM then.

No Johnny not how I see it, but others may have their own interpretation of it.
As Mtoto has elude to it being part of the Erin numbers,he would be correct.
 
Apologies for the delay.

Yes of course,all the selections fall into it, a close look at G Hall's selections should be suffice, because if you remember he had burnt the midnight oil in order to find something.
 
b]Yes of course,all the selections fall into it[/b]

Bobba,

Can I ask when you say this do you mean all selections have an Erin type number. I ask because while I can see it is possible for every horse to have a number, are you saying all selections have to follow the same criteria as the Erin numbers.

Once again I can fit the two horse mentioned Stray Shot and zamandra into my thinking of the second picture. I have to say there are horses like Ekbalco I can't. But as he/they completely fit the first picture I'm more than happy.

a close look at G Hall's selections should be suffice, because if you remember he had burnt the midnight oil in order to find something.

IF Mr Hall is VDW isn't the above just a bit of bull?

Be Lucky
 
I'll come back to the rest later, but knowing that G Hall is VDW would appear that letter was in some way deceptive, look at in its true light, he is giving you a clue to how the 2nd numerical was to be found,it is easy to throw scorn at it,how and why would you know where to look otherwise?
G Hall found something that is apparent in all the selections.
 
Apparently it did and although I feel enough was outlined for
readers to grasp the idea it is obvious that many have failed to do so. Possibly because one contributor introduced what he called the 'Key' readers have sought what is not there in the form of some magic formula (A reference to G.Hall, SEE 15).

Bobba,

Not scorn just a warning that it wasn't all it seemed to be as VDW pointed out later.

As VDW didn't mention the/a 2nd picture until much later on can I ask why you think that is what he talking about here? Have to say
though that I agree that letter could have made folk re-read and possibly notice something that had already been mentioned but could have been missed. Strangely enough I do think that could well be the second numerical picture!

Be Lucky
 
Mtoto:

Apparently it did and although I feel enough was outlined for
readers to grasp the idea it is obvious that many have failed to do so. Possibly because one contributor introduced what he called the 'Key' readers have sought what is not there in the form of some magic formula (A reference to G.Hall, SEE 15).
Click to expand...

Mtoto,

I think you have misinterpreted this line and I believe VDW also believed that others misinterpreted G Hall's letter too "what is not there in the form of some magic formula" this why he clarifies it in this manner.
It is not a magic formula, it is as I have mentioned more than once, easy identifiable information/data and if you read G Hall's letter again, he clearly states what he is doing in order.
"I burnt considerable midnight oil checking through PAST RESULTS and concluded that here was something to get my teeth into"

"My First bet the Lincoln winner then it all went wrong."

"Fortunately C.Van Der Wheil elaborated following comments by Methodmaker and after burning more midnight oil, I spotted the 'key' which was plainly there to see"

Here you can see exactly what he does, looks at the form get its wrong and then explains how he managed to get it right from using VDW reply to Methodmaker.

You have also noted that although he did not mention the 2nd numerical until later, he also explained that he had given enough to create it, which suggest that he had given it away long before mentioning the fact there was a 2nd numerical.
VDW also went to the trouble of telling you it was there and not covered up.

Sadly I have not got all the information for Ekbalco collated and would be just giving an misinformed judgement.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top