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I did it my way

Pulsatrixp:

Crunch time.
After further study and applying other aspects of my method I came up with three that imo look to have a good chance of winning.

Lively Baron came out on top but seems a bit underpriced.
Kauto Relko showed in third but seems more underpriced than LB.
Sir Du Bearn came second and is more than a fair price. It's BetFair win and weighted place for me then.

Good luck to anyone else having a go. :)
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To show willing I have looked at this race. A race I wouldn't normally look at and certainly not back in. The reason for this is these races have prep written all over them, A couple of horses with proven class and form but appearing to be out of form, can they regain that form as they have the proven class to be dangerous. Then there are the young and/or unexposed horse where the trainer needs to find out more about them. All in all a guessing game!!

Fine Parchment 1
Kauto Relko 2
Probables = Lively Baron, Sir Du Bearn, and Monkerty Tunkerty

If pushed I would take Fine Parchment as the most likely to show a profit. He is top on ability BOTH ways of working. so he has the proven class and form. For me the problem is is this just a prep, as he often runs in much better races than this, and the distance doesn't look right. He seems to be run over this longer distance as a prep and then is dropped back for the target, As he is well clear class wise I would be hoping that would at least gain him at least a place.

For me a race to avoid, I don't like guessing that's why I stick to the better class races. At least then one can work on the belief that all will be at least trying to win that race, and the only/main problem then is are the conditions right?

Be Lucky
 
BANGOR 2.00

The first figure is the highest OR in the race and the second figure is the average OR. The third figure is how many pounds above/below their official rating is from the best run of their last three runs.

HANDICAP CHASE CLASS RATING 135/127

MONKERTY TUNKERTY 122-49 (Hunter Chasing)
COTSWOLD CHARMER 120-117 +5
LIVELY BARON 129-119 +4
BUFFALO BOB 125-120 +5
KAUTO RELKO 147-134 -5
SIR DU BEARN 131-125 +5
FINE PARCHMENT 158-141 -3
QUARTZ DE THAIX 141-102 -2
THAT’S THE DEAL 130-119 0
CADODALAS 133-126 +3

The class horses appear to be Fine Parchment and Kauto Relko. Both are on lower marks and running in easier races when producing their best form.
Fine Parchment goes well fresh and has won on his seasonal debut before. However, Charlie Mann is 1-24 in handicap chases at Bangor with his last win back in 2008.

Kauto Relko was unlucky when tipping up at the last in a decent Market Rasen race. The fourth, fifth and ninth have all subsequently won. He then went to Cheltenham and finished 5th of 20 behind Nadiya Del A Vega. He made mistakes at the third and second last that day when making headway. He stayed on in a novice chase over course and distance to suggest he will get the three miles. Longsdens record in handicap chases here since 2011 reads; WL22W3LW.

For me, Kauto Relko each way.
 
Pulsatrixp:

I've never had much regard for the conventional way of working out Ability mtoto. For me it's Consistency/Speed/Whateverelsetakesmyfancy. I rarely do a comprehensive rating these days. Only when I've got nowt else to do and there is a suitable race.

Hi there rob.

:)
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I only have an overview, but initially I liked Alvarado,s form but now it would appear he is a non runner.
Lively Baron is weighted well ,entered up for a big race soon, not a VDW bets for me,just running for fun
 
Short list would be

Sir Du Bearn
Buffalo Bob
Fine Parchment
Lively Baron

Could be a question mark against distance for Sir Du Bearn.
Fine Parchment has shown good performances after a break previously.
Buffalo Bob appears to perform better on Hvy and Sft
Lively Baron can't be ruled out but current price doesn't offer a great deal of value

If pushed would plump for Fine Parchment to place, but can't see a standout winner.
 
Pulsatrixp:

Quartz De Thaix won @ 9/1 by 7L. I saw a VERY long and good write-up for that one this morning. Far too many negatives for me though.
Lively Baron was 3rd @ 5/1.
Good of you all to participate in what was basically an exersise. :)
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Pingman:

Just got in and seen the result, Can I ask Bob who looked at the race briefly like I did last night, the other side of the picture as i see it was not that bad on reflection, but current form was not good.

It was a perfect non balencing race really.

Cheers
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Pingman:

Just got in and seen the result, Can I ask Bob who looked at the race briefly like I did last night, the other side of the picture as i see it was not that bad on reflection, but current form was not good.

It was a perfect non balencing race really.

Cheers
Click to expand...

Ping,

BB was expected to finish alot closer LTO and faltered, his odds today reflected this.
Look closely at his two wins last season,lesser distance?, it looks like he prefers this distance when failing to pick his legs up in two longer distance affairs , but at the same time look at his odds for them wins and previous wins, when it is going to happen, the money goes down.
I understand what you are saying about the picture and yes it is good and you are right about the balancing,but I could not have him and the whole race generally was a mish mash of trying to get things to balance, nothing straight forward.
Alvarado had an exquisite consistency picture and it is a surprise that the Wylie's have given up this horse, a 50% win strike rate to boot, but they obviously knew its limitations,we will see how it is placed.
The winner Quaix De Thaix took advantage of a lenient chase mark and the trainer is red hot at the moment, it had good consistency, but you could easily pass over this.
Remember you should be looking for the one that sticks out.

Mtoto,

You are right, any set of numbers are a ranking, but it depends which end of the scale you want to start, my point is if you are creating another number to create a number sequence, what is the point.

I can understand if you are doing it to two different ranges of numbers like the CR and the AR to bring them into alignment with each other, but then it seems like a very complicated approach to something that would lead to knowhere over time, apologies for this, but I just think it is a pointless exercise, I have not read anything in your other posts about it to suggest otherwise.
 
my point is if you are creating another number to create a number sequence, what is the point.

Bobba,

The point is to form another, or 2nd picture. The first picture only gives us the basic number, say five or six, doesn't VDW then go out of his way to elaborate and show these bare figure can mean different things and/or values?

Interesting to see some have taken the time to re assess the race after the result, very important. Although I didn't pin point the winner I was reasonably happy with my reading of the race.

Pulsa?

You don't say why you don't like the conventional method of measuring ability, but as you can see I'm not happy with it. However I'm 100% convinced an accurate measurement is of utmost importance. You will notice in my last post I said a couple of horses had the proven class and form , yes the other one was the winner (I'm not trying to claim anything just show a fact). The second rated as shown Kauto Relko was way behind the top rated on class and was only ranked in front of the winner on consistency, There was no way I could have even considered him the (2nd rated) as the likely winner. Of the probables the strongest did the best.

Be Lucky
 
Bobajobber:

Pingman:

Just got in and seen the result, Can I ask Bob who looked at the race briefly like I did last night, the other side of the picture as i see it was not that bad on reflection, but current form was not good.

It was a perfect non balencing race really.

Cheers
Click to expand...

Ping,

BB was expected to finish alot closer LTO and faltered, his odds today reflected this.
Look closely at his two wins last season,lesser distance?, it looks like he prefers this distance when failing to pick his legs up in two longer distance affairs , but at the same time look at his odds for them wins and previous wins, when it is going to happen, the money goes down.
I understand what you are saying about the picture and yes it is good and you are right about the balancing,but I could not have him and the whole race generally was a mish mash of trying to get things to balance, nothing straight forward.
Alvarado had an exquisite consistency picture and it is a surprise that the Wylie's have given up this horse, a 50% win strike rate to boot, but they obviously knew its limitations,we will see how it is placed.
The winner Quaix De Thaix took advantage of a lenient chase mark and the trainer is red hot at the moment, it had good consistency, but you could easily pass over this.
Remember you should be looking for the one that sticks out.

Mtoto,

You are right, any set of numbers are a ranking, but it depends which end of the scale you want to start, my point is if you are creating another number to create a number sequence, what is the point.

I can understand if you are doing it to two different ranges of numbers like the CR and the AR to bring them into alignment with each other, but then it seems like a very complicated approach to something that would lead to knowhere over time, apologies for this, but I just think it is a pointless exercise, I have not read anything in your other posts about it to suggest otherwise.
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Bob

Thanks for the reply, may have miss posted as what i meant was the winner had a decent second picture but a very inconsistant first one.

A night time look with pressure is not the way to pick a winner, really we should have said no bet, but there you go a forum is for getting involved and accepting other ideas and help along the way.

I may be able to look at one tomorrow as hoping to be back early lets cross our fingers.

Cheers
 
Pulsatrixp:

mtoto, I utilised an ability rating of sorts over at Clonmel this afternoon. Seemed to work OK. I just find that the advocated way of finding this is too simplistic and sometimes downright misleading.
I know that the Kem 6.25 is far from a suitable race but I've rated it anyway. :)
Diplomatic. If it's last race was not a fluke then it seems pretty good value in this race. For me it outpoints Lean On Pete. I'm a fan of consistency though and for that reason I favour Lean On Pete. I've even backed the thing win and heavy place on BetFair. :)
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Mtoto:

The point is to form another, or 2nd picture. The first picture only gives us the basic number, say five or six, doesn't VDW then go out of his way to elaborate and show these bare figure can mean different things and/or values?
Click to expand...

Mtoto,

Again apologies for the delay, sometimes I need time to think about what I am trying to convey, I have already touch on the point once, but a little like VDW words they get washed over without digesting what is put across.

If we have the first numerical form, AKA consistent form ,last three runs ie, 111
If VDW says that he has given away enough information in order to create another numerical picture that confirms the first numerical, if we are concentrating on the form aspect for now, surely we need to create another set of number based on the same theory to measure or compare against the first set.
Firstly I have explained that the first set are predominately the selection, so the second set should surely be the horses that surround the selection, this will give you a truer measure of the form of the race, it can also show you a horse who has a poor first numerical form to be involved in a race that is consistent, I appreciate that you cannot see it in all the races that VDW put across, but we take ourselves back to VDW's quip about drip feeding his method, those horses that were given and appear to not carry any of the traits, were put there specifically for you to work out why he had selected them, he had to show you other ways to tackle consistency and class.
I notice that most of your issues only appear in selections that appear much later.

I remember that you had an issue with Baronet's last race and you did not believe it was the race that he was selected from.
It actually all comes together in Baronets LTO, the balance of class and form.

There is more to VDW consistent form than meets the eye and not just the last three race figures.

I convey this because your ranking theory is not all that it is cracked up to be.
 
Pingman:

Thanks for the reply, may have miss posted as what i meant was the winner had a decent second picture but a very inconsistant first one.

A night time look with pressure is not the way to pick a winner, really we should have said no bet, but there you go a forum is for getting involved and accepting other ideas and help along the way.

I may be able to look at one tomorrow as hoping to be back early lets cross our fingers.

Cheers
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Yes I know Pingman,

I just wanted to throw my point across about BB.
Understanding why they did not do what you thought they might,is always an area to investigate further.
We can often have a set of rules in our heads to weigh against selections and often ignore applying them only to shout at the result I knew that was going to happen.
Mtoto may disagree with me on this, but I do not believe there is a true VDW horse in every race, because surely for there to be one, there has to be a horse that has everything going for it, that fits all criteria, VDW's quip - the one most likely to win is apt and also suggests that there is not.
 
A little was left for you to complete, but all relevant factors were there to set up a second "numerical picture", providing you read what was said.

A couple of clues. The first from March, 1981 when a
comprehensive explanation was given . . . "To confirm what the
figures say (numerical picture), it is necessary to study the form
of all concerned, taking particular note of class in which they
ran, the courses they ran on, the pace and going of respective
races, distances won or beaten by and, most important, how they
performed in the later stages of each race". And from Winning
Ways to Bet . . . "You should not need to be reminded that the
class against which a horse runs is not the same as the class of
race in which they compete".

Bobba,

You are not going to believe this but at last I think I understand what you are saying and why we have been going round in circles. For some reason I thought you were talking about the Erin Numbers.

However I have to ask how you get ALL requirement mentioned, class of race, pace, etc into one figure? If the first picture consists of three races which one do you use to formulate the numbers? How I have no real problem with meeting these requirement although I have too say I can't meet the one about the later stages of a race without resorting to good old form reading as I can't find a way of incorporating it into a number.

I remember that you had an issue with Baronet's last race and you did not believe it was the race that he was selected from.

I have seen nothing that changes my mind on that, I have no problem with him being the highest rated consistent horse based on ability. The main problem was I was being asked to believe Baronet had the best form in the race based on his last run. + people were accepting him as a form horse when he failed in two of the aspects that were being used to say Beacon Light was out of form, namely a reduced s/f coupled with a drop in class.

Mtoto may disagree with me on this, but I do not believe there is a true VDW horse in every race, because surely for there to be one, there has to be a horse that has everything going for it, that fits all criteria,

Ping

No I agree 100%, but I can't think why Bobba would think I would disagree. Although judging by some selections I have seen there is a huge difference with what some think a VDW selection looks like ;)

Be Lucky
 
Pingman:

As at home at the mo trying to do a report, just looked after the result of the first at Cheltenham.

Bob, even though Dynaste had a higher consistancy rating than Fingal, looking at the A/B rating he was top but he had a decent other picture, you could say again he was worth a look, but again the race did not balence.

One to eliminate maybe from a betting prospect

Regards

PM
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Pulsatrixp:

The PPGC.
20 runners and many with chances. I've had a great fancy for Hunt Ball in this for quite some time. Sadly it does not figure in my top four for this. In fact it is 5th.

Poquelin. I rate it 4th. Top weight and a big price. Trends are against this one.
Grands Crus. 2nd top rated. Hot fav. Again, trends are against.
Forpadydeplasterer is my top rated. Not won for ages though.
Nadiya De La Vega. 3rd top for me. Henderson & McCoy ??? Would not be bucking the trends by taking this.

Very difficult this. If there's going to be a trend-buster I'd rather be on Poquelin at those prices. Forpadydeplasterer, if on a going day, should beat Nadiya De La Vega.
I'll have a book with those last two named plus Poquelin. Just cannot have Grands Crus at the present price.
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