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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

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Sorry Moto for jumping in here, but I was not aware that Lee threw in any red herrings, do you know what they were, and where this occurred.

T Thomas I have just had a computer crash and can't find/post Lee's actual posting but her does clearly say he had thrown in a few red herrings!! Chesham seems to think that is ok but I really can't see how anyone would think that!! A typo or even an honest mistake fair enough but to do it on purpose personally I think is not on. I have seen a copy of Lee's posting on this forum, but not sure which thread but it is on here somewhere. Lee didn't go into any detail about what he mislead folk on and that is why I said just be careful and as Chesham knows about it can't really understand why he is championing Lee unless he is/was Lee's special friend who Lee proofed too.

I am sure this has been mentioned many times but why are apprentice jockeys who claim 3,5 or 7 pounds so much in demand, and often encouraged to hold onto their claim for as long as possible by some trainers, who will then exploit it to the full.

While I don't think weight makes that much of a difference I have no doubts some trainers do. As said I can see less weight can/should make a horses task a little easier, but it can't make a horse run faster than its optimum. It has been shown a rise in class can stop a horse and my figure show this time and again.

As VDW stated with Canny Danny weight in relation to the other competitors stops the Class/Form Horses winning.Where do I state that weight is the sole factor in Lee’s selections..

You just can't see it or perhaps you have trouble with the English language if weight was/is part of the FORM process how can a horse with too much weight be the class/form horse the weight would have eliminated it. I have asked this question before, but for some reason you choose to ignore it or have no sensible answer

I notice you have put up some of Lee's posts to me from another forum but for some reason you haven't put up my answer This makes it all look very one sided and perhaps even suggests I can't/didn't answer his question. One that jumps out at me is the statement VDW wouldn't have selected a horse that was going up in class, weight and distance I would put money on I then pointed to Sofa high lighted in TGY

arkle55 arkle55 Not to forget some horses can get a high TS figure from a higher class race yet still fail to win because the the TS figure was gained purely because the horse was running on instinct/running with the herd or the horse was simply pushed to hard to soon within it's career.

What you say is true and that is one of the reasons I don't back 2 year olds and try to fight shy of 3 year olds early in the season But can't the same be said for some horses that win these big races early in their career. I do try to look for these early/young horse that have more than one entry on the d/base i.e one at 2 then one at 3 etc also just getting the required s/f isn't enough in its self the form still needs a sense of achievement whereas a win doesn't always have that. A horse can win a class 2 race worth quite a few bob against rubbish and I'm looking for some thing better than that. That's why when folk suggest I'm not taking any notice of VDW's statement, speed without form, are also talking rubbish.

Be Lucky
 
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And click on the blue Hyperlink VDW for dummies, you will see every interaction that you had with Lee or anyone else for that matter, including Hensman/Fulham. So I did not as you accused miss out your replies to Lee. Apology accepted in advance.

Chesham Chesham I'm not sure but it looks like you have yet again deleted a posting AFTER it had been answered . I say this because I now can't find it and you for some reason see fit to stop anyone looking through your posts using your profile!!? So it will be a fair wait for an apology. You knew very well what post I was talking about as I mentioned one of the question and that question wasn't shown in the posting left. You say you are retired can I ask was it from politics as you have a well practiced manner of twisting words and I think you would go down a storm in parliament.


I have no problem with Canny Danny being the class form horse, my problem is you saying it and then arguing what weight is a factor when achieving this. If weight is a problem then how can it be a form horse. if weight is used as part of the form detail ? If you use weight when assessing form good luck to you but I can't see how that shows VDW did. What I can see is the other condition/factors could well have put VDW off two hard races close together, one of these on a track that may not have suited him. A massive rise in the weights after the withdrawals, and or a combination of all or any of the above, easiest explanation too much weight.

I notice you have now to try to prove your point shown some selections carrying less weight than their last race. Until you match this up with selections carry more weight than their previous races and there are more than enough to make it doubtful that this is the real reason for them being selections.

Thanks for the reply Mtoto glad to see you posting away hope you are keeping wrll

T Thomas As said I will try to answer all and any, questions and can I ask have we meet in a previous life/forum?

Be Lucky
 
I don’t know what you are going on about deleting posts it is still there if you go to Post 71 and click on the Blue Hyper Link you will see Lee’s Posts in the Racing Forum your reply’s and everyone else’s for that matter

Chesham Chesham It isn't post 71 that bothers me it is post 72. If you read my reply you will see I mentioned a question and gave the reply I think I would have made at the time, so I think it was obvious I wasn't talking about post 71. At least if anyone wants to find any posting I make they know where to find it they are not scattered far and wide

One thing that is refreshing when reading the posts on the hyperlink, you don’t seem to agree with anyone back then either or on Gummy for that manner. Have you ever agreed on anybody’s else’s opinion ever.

You say it is refreshing I say its frustrating I have to ask the same questions because the answers are not there. Often all one gets is copies of articles written by VDW with no real explanations. These are then backed up with other folk PERSONAL opinions of how they think it works.

I have not seen you give an opion as to why VDW suggested Canny Danny should not be backed when facing West Tip. Do you think VDW was wrong to suggest that. ?

I thought anyone could see why I thought Canny Danny wasn't a bet if they bothered to read my last post when I have no problem with Canny Danny being the class form horse, my problem is you saying it and then arguing what weight is a factor when achieving this. If weight is a problem then how can it be a form horse. if weight is used as part of the form detail ? If you use weight when assessing form good luck to you but I can't see how that shows VDW did. What I can see is the other condition/factors could well have put VDW off two hard races close together, one of these on a track that may not have suited him. A massive rise in the weights after the withdrawals, and or a combination of all or any of the above, easiest explanation too much weight.

I'm sorry to hear I'm having an effect on your blood pressure and I would like to think it will get better soon as for not liking you I have no doubt if we meet in person we would not get on. As far as I can see we are both bloody minded and will not give an inch. You may be surprised but there quite a few folk I get on with and agree with. I just don't think weight is the answer to VDW or for that matter racing in general. Do you try to put down anyone who thinks like that? Many folk the formulate s/f don't use weight even those that use speed as a hcping tool.

Be Lucky
 
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mtoto said:
@Chesham It isn't post 71 that bothers me it is post 72. If you read my reply you will see I mentioned a question and gave the reply I think I would have made at the time, so I think it was obvious I wasn't talking about post 71. At least if anyone wants to find any posting I make they know where to find it they are not scattered far and wide
Click to expand...

As far as I can see post 72 is still there and has not been edited since being posted.
upload_2017-11-7_7-19-51.png

mtoto mtoto it would be much easier to read your posts if you used the forum Quote facilities.
The +Quote function allows to copy the whole post and insert it into another thread whilst the Reply function does the same but inserts the post into the same thread. If you only want to quote a small part(s) of a post highlight the bit of the post you want to quote and click the +Quote as shown below. You can add multiple quotes and can then paste them individually into your repply

upload_2017-11-7_7-25-49.png
 
Exe 2:00 1 Ar Mad 2 Vibrato Valtat 3 San Benedeto

Exe 2:00 1 Forest Bihan 2 San Benedeto 3 Ar Mad

Prices are too tight for me.

I have Ar Mad as the class form horse. Stiff right handed track fair enough, apart from price the time off course has to be taken into account. Can't see he will get an easy run as there are other front runners.If the horse is race fit he will take some beating. San Benedeto has a fair bit to find class wise and best so far has been on a flat course although does have good form on this course in a much
lower class. Had a prep run over hurdles and also holds a Cheltenham entry in just under a fortnight.Vibrato Valtat won this a couple of years ago but nothing since. Change of trainer may help but I would need proof before any money changed hands.

mtoto said:
I'm not sure but it looks like you have yet again deleted a posting AFTER it had been answered . I say this because I now can't find it and you for some reason see fit to stop anyone looking through your posts using your profile!!?
Click to expand...

ArkRoyal ArkRoyal The thing posted itself before I had finished!! I feel I was justified in asking the question as this member has deleted post and edited them later in the past. I f one could go to his profile and find recent post the question would need to be asked

Be Lucky
 
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Aint 1:40 1 Louis' Vac Pouch 2 Beer Goggles 3 Nautical Nitwit
Don 1:35 1 Shady Mccoy 2 Get Knotted 3 Bravery
Win 1:50 1 Jessber's Dream 2 Copper Kay 3 Secret Door
Aint 2:15 1 On Tour 2 Virgilio 3 Voix D'eau
Don 2:40 1 Vintage Folly 2 Time Chaser 3 Brief Visit
Don 3:15 1 Chelsea Lad 2 Master The World 3 Dance The Dream
Win 3:35 1 Theatre Guide 2 Double Shuffle 3 Present Man

Probables
Aint 1:40 1 Beer Goggles 2 Bon Chic 3 Nautical Nitwit
Don 1:35 1 Shady Mccoy 2 Muntadab 3 Right Touch
Win 1:50 1 Ellens Way 2 Midnight Tune 3 Jessber's Dream
Aint 2:15 1 Virgilio 2 Tiquer 3 Gardefort
Don 2:40 1 Brief Visit 2 Vintage Folly 3 Time Chaser
Don 3:15 1 Dance The Dream 2 Al Destoor 3 Royal Line
Win 3:35 1 Present Man 2 Vic De Touzaine 3 Mr Mix

Nothing on the flat is of interest for me today. 1:35 I did have a good look at Bravery but decided against as this value of race is not really high enough. Next season I won't bother to work them in full perhaps just show the probables if there is enough interest. 2:40 Only Brief Visit is an interesting price but she has plenty to find although the trainer is well capable with the right ammunition. 3:15 after working this race I can't really believe how low the final figures are. Off the top three only Dance The Dream doesn't have a big question mark re the distance. However after nine runs and three wins in reasonable class race she still hasn't a run a race worthy of entry on the d/base
1:40 Another qualifier for the Cheltenham final and another I'm leaving alone
1:50 Again only one of the three is an interesting price and as Jessber's Dream is my class horse I'm a little surprised. If she had had a run to show there are no ill effects after the lay off I would have had a full bet on her. nAt least she is going right handed for the first time for a little while.Jessber's Dream small win loaded place to half stakes
2:15 Only Voix D'eau is my sort of price but even I would want a horse to start showing it can at least get somewhere near confirming the figures. One redeeming feature is at least he is being ridden by a jockey the seems to know and can win on the horse. No bet
3:35 I have Theatre Guide as the class horse (just) with Double Shuffle close up. Theatre Guide has his usual Newbury entry but I really do think he isn't up to that again as he is getting older and his figures are starting to drop I think this may be his best chance of a nice pick up this season and his form when fresh is quite good. Double Shuffle's main target is the King George and this could just be a prep and I'm reasonably sure he won't be given a hard race on unsuitable going. Present Man fair bit to find class wise and a worry with going and distance. Theatre Guide small win loaded place

Be lucky
 
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Chelt 1:50 1 Exitas 2 Bright New Dawn 3 Mick Thonic

Probables
Chelt 1:50 1 Exitas 2 Kapstadt 3 Mick Thonic


Just the one race and it looks to be a little tight price wise

Exitas at first look seems to tick most of the boxes apart from price. Improving, and can handle a stiff course although does seem to have a slight right hand bias. Has proven form in a higher class and apart from being the strongest probable is also the strongest of the proven horses on recent form. The main worry is he only just passes the cross check and although the last win looked easy it wasn't that long ago, and it was quite a big increase in his figures. Bright New Dawn has to be respected even after the long lay off as he has won first time out on three occasions. He is another that seems to have a slight right hand bias, but again the stiff course shouldn't be a worry. I have him top rated of the consistent horses and at a better price he would be the bet!!
Mick Thonic is a course winner in a higher class race than to-days, but it was in a novice race. His jumping will have to improve if he is to stand any chance but he is young enough to do that. I will wait and see with him.

Be Lucky
 
Chelt 1:50 1 Minella Rocco 2 Three Faces West 3 Perfect Candidate
Chelt 2:25 1 Starchitect 2 Romain De Senam 3 Foxtail Hill
Chelt 3:00 1 Dell' Arca 2 Thomas Campbell 3 Rocky's Treasure.


Probables
Chelt 1:50 1 Three Faces West 2 Sizing Codelco 3 Doing Fine
Chelt 2:25 1 Kylemore Lough 2 Double Treasure 3 Romain De Senam
Chelt 3:00 1 Rocky's Treasure 2 Dell' Arca 3 Thomas Campbell

A little disappointing for me with a possible six races to look at and three having to be discounted because of lack of runners.

1:50 Minella Rocco clear class horse whos main target has to be the Gold Cup and with that in mind will he be wound up enough for this? His profile suggests he usually needs a couple of runs to be fully fit if he starts this early in a season. ITt also suggests he doesn't favour soft going. Price too tight anyway. Three Faces West after a long lay off this could just be a prep for a race in December. The Aintree course looks a better bet for this horse and the race an easier target. Perfect Candidate grand old horse who surprisingly still comes out joint second best in the class stakes. However like the horse his figures are starting to get a little on the old side, and I can't really see him getting placed here.
2:25 Kylemore Lough another clear class horse but seems to have a right hand bias and is entered in the The King George so is this a prep? price doesn't allow for the risk although I do expect him to pick up some place prize money but without being given a hard race, it goes down to 6th place . The next two in the rankings are joint second best class wise, and I have to side with Romain De Senam of the two. This is mainly down to Foxtail Hill's running style. I can't really see this brave horse winning with his front running style even though there is no doubt he favours the course big style. Romain can handle an undulating stiff track and his last two runs have been his best so far so improving. To be honest I think the price is a little tight but Romain De Senam small win loaded place at 5/2 the place.
3:00 A no bet race for me but I did have a serious look at Connetable as it is my class horse in this.

Be Lucky
 
Chelt 3:00 1 The New One 2 Misterton 3 Jenkins

Probables
Chelt 3:00 1 Misterton 2 Jenkins 3 The New One

Even with Betfair paying for the first four places the prices are very tight. or too tight for me.

3:00 The New One I can only assume the weight is what is forcing his win price out. This alone makes him interesting for me. He has been putting up figures for more than a few years and even the lowest of them still make him the class horse. Plus the fact over these years his figures haven't deteriorated. the course and going shouldn't be a problem. For me the only problem with this horses is his overly "bullish" trainer I find it impossible to work out if he is being serious or just himself. Misterton's ranking is a complete surprise to me as I backed his stable mate ante post for this . I did have a look at both of them and decided Mr Fry would go with the other one, (Air Horse One) but he obviously knows something I don't. I can see Misterton is improving, and the undulating course should be no problem, but it has to be remembered he didn't handle Cheltenham on his first attempt, and until his last race looked to have a right hand bias. The cross check also raises doubts but his trainer is nobodys fool. I 'm backing both to win at half stakes.

Be Lucky
 
Fair play for your posts, I can see you put a lot of work into it. I remember VDW and also Win(Brighton) and Hotform(Wheathampstead)! I moved over here to Ireland in the late 70's, lot of people in the area own Horses some with AOB
and quite a few have jumpers. You mentioned two Horses Kylemore Lough &Minella Rocco. There was a strong tip for
Rocco for the 2016 Festival, he won at 8/1. I was in the pub and this guy was on the phone and I heard the name Thistlecrack,
so I asked him what was the Horse he was talking about. He told me Kylemore Lough. When I got home I looked up the form
and I concluded he had no hope with Thistlecrack or Many Clouds. Sad Clouds won and died after the race and Thistle was
hurt and missed The Gold Cup . Kylemore was heavily supported and that shows he has shown something and moved to
Harry Fry. He probably will win a good race in the future. I was keeping a watch on Rocco and it looked to me as if he was
being "Minded", possibly one of The Nationals. I saw he was in The Gold Cup and I got him EW 25/1. I met that guy who
told me Kylemore and advised him to get Rocco EW. He may run in the GC next year, I think he probably needs 3m4f+ to
show his ability.
 
Hay 1:50 1 Clyne 2 Value At Risk 3 Diamond Fort
Hay 2:25 1 The Worlds End 2 Silsol 3 Sam Spinner
Hay 3:35 1 Baywing 2 Henri Parry Morgan 3 Sir Ivan

Probables
Hay 1:50 1 Diamond Fort 2 Verni 3 Clyne
Hay 2:25 1 The Worlds End 2 Minella Awards 3 No Hassle Hoff
Hay 3:35 1 Sir Ivan 2 Catamaran Du Seuil 3 Ballymalin

1:50 Clyne clear class horse with proven form on this track and shown nit can handle the going . Ticks most/enough of the boxes apart from price. Value At Risk is second best class wise but some way behind Clyne. Has form on the soft but unproven in the heavy but course souldn't be a problem. Diamond Fort could be the fly in the ointment as he is the strongest probable and his trainer is in blistering form. However there is often a fly like this and he needs some drastic improvement on the face of it. No Bet
2:25 I have Silsol the class horse , just. When I started working this race I thought it was still the fixed brush hurdle and an a little disappointed they have scrapped it I liked looking for the chaser and/or French breed runners. Apart from Silsol the prices on the other top ranked horse are too tight form me and as both are quite inexperienced I'm siding with Silsol. He can handle the track and going, acts well fresh and goes for an inexperienced Jockey. The Worlds End has had more than his fair share of hype and as his main targets seem to be at the festival I doubt he will be fully wound up for this and even with Cheltenham so far of they won't want him to have a really hard race on this ground. Sam Spinner have to admit I quite like his profile. Improving, not trained by a "face" and could just about be anything. Can handle soft, but noted he was pulled out because of heavy going, now that could have been because the trainer was unsure rather anything else. Silsol small win loaded place.
3:35 At first look this race looked a bit of a mess. The joint class horse did little to interest me with one being a little on the old side and the other more than a little erratic. However on closer inspection Baywing looks a likely candidate. He relishes the ground and the distance looks to be more favourable. After some thought I have decided to give him a miss.

Some apologies, I have had a very rough week what with doctors,nurses, etc calling in at all times of the day and night so I have fallen behind with e-mails and messages. I will make every effort to catch up asap. I have cut down on today's races in as much as I haven't even looked at Ascot and I think I missed three races in the week. Looking at last weeks post I see I made a mistake and had Starchitect as the highest ranked horse in the Chelt 2:25 this is not correct as Kylemore Lough was. Not sure how that happened as Starchitect was only 4th best, so sorry.

Just to make life interesting I'm having major problems with Excel, it has taken on a life of its own, and I haven't a clue what is going on with it.

Hope next week is a little less heck tick and those doctors would stop shaking their heads and muttering as they leave!! Heard one of them mention the need for a visit to the medical museum as he had never seen anything quite like it :eek:

Be Lucky
 
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