• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Route away from the Poorhouse - Laying Odds on away

Bouncebackability with a full house of three winning lays.

Also laid Real Jaen @ 1.51 and Al Arafa @ 1.87 in the afternoon but not posted here so won't count for thread. Did some repairs to my Betfair account though.

Pity Chelsea and Liverpool were too low odds wise too with my filter.

Lay Santos this evening at 1.61.

I will tidy up numbers/etc tomorrow.
 
sward73 said:
Pity Chelsea and Liverpool were too low odds wise too with my filter.
Click to expand...

Not a Football fan by any means, but the cup games this year have been fucking awesome for the forgotten towns of England. Something to tell future Grandchildren about when the average Premiership wage climbs to about £500,000 a week. :snooty:
 
Yeah Mouse been brilliant for the smaller clubs.

Bradford, Luton, Oldham, Macclesfield, to name but a few.

After Saturdays horror show we were left as follows:

Current bank €1,147.48
Liability is still €20.23.

Sunday had four winning lays for thread (Profit €104.32) and two extra for myself (Profit€59.37) :D which almost recovered Saturdays losses.

Updated Results
Criteria Lay 1.5-2 Away Team
Start Bank €1,000
Current Bank €1,251.80
Bank High €1,348.88
Lay 1.5% Ratchet
Next liability €20.23
 
Dortmund happily lost 1-0 for a profit of €26.33

Updated Results
Criteria Lay 1.5-2 Away Team
Start Bank €1,000
Current Bank €1,278.13
Bank High €1,348.88
Lay 1.5% Ratchet
Next liability €20.23

Todays
Lay Bursapor @ 1.9
Lay Maccabi @ 1.62
Lay AZ Alkmaar @ 1.52
Lay Welling @ 1.9
Lay Worcester @ 1.92
Lay Notts County @ 1.86
Lay Man City @ 1.5
 
3 winning lays (Bursapor, Man City and Watford) from 8 yesterday but the Man City price was a big bonus. Loss of €20.92

On the move today so will update P & L later

Todays Lays.

Benfica
Botofago
Marseille
Chelsea
Tottenham
 
2 from 5 tonight with late Reading goals saving my skin.

Loss of €6.58 tonight.

Updated Results
Criteria Lay 1.5-2 Away Team
Start Bank €1,000
Current Bank €1,250.63
Bank High €1,348.88
Lay 1.5% Ratchet
Next liability €20.23
 
Santos was another loss. We are in serious reverse mode here.

Updated Results
Criteria Lay 1.5-2 Away Team
Start Bank €1,000
Current Bank €1,230.4
Bank High €1,348.88
Lay 1.5% Ratchet
Next liability €20.23
 
Keep posting these, I'm sure you've got a good audience here. :handgestures-thumbup:

ps any chance you could show number of bets so far in the aggregated results?
 
Thanks Jalfrezi. I will have a look at collating the data on bets so far next week but from a very high initial ROI we have hit a downward spiral!

Todays possible lays which from now on I am going to be laying on a BOT five minutes before kick-off.

So remember these will only qualify if they are between 1.51 and 2 at that time. This means lays should be made when market is at its most liquid and be matched although I may miss some early value. Am using BF BOT Manager for this which I got years ago and am digging out now.

Fortuna Koln
Bayern Munich
Luton
Halifax
Partick
Crusaders
Livingston
Chelsea
Man United
Maccabi Tel Aviv
White Star Woulfe
 
sward73 said:
Thanks Jalfrezi. I will have a look at collating the data on bets so far next week but from a very high initial ROI we have hit a downward spiral!
Click to expand...
I think the Betfair 1x2 football markets are highly efficient and usually reasonably accurate, though I've noticed some favouritism bias in big tournaments (causal punters backing big name teams without paying attention to price) and the same may also be true with Away favourites here.

If there is an edge I wouldn't expect it to be a large one, which suggests your system did run very hot at first (always nicer than starting with a cold run!), but with plenty of laying opportunities each year even a small percent would probably do.:drinks:
 
Am going to struggle to keep these going as am away with work for next few weeks.

This evenings are:

Spain U-21 @ 1.63
Airbus @ 1.72
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top