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Speed Test

I won't be able to post these anymore haven't had the time to do them past 3 days and would struggle to catch up so I won't bother trying
need to find a quicker way of doing it so may be back.
 
tractorboy said:
I won't be able to post these anymore haven't had the time to do them past 3 days and would struggle to catch up so I won't bother trying
need to find a quicker way of doing it so may be back.
Click to expand...

I know where you are coming from here, it takes me up to 3 hours a day to pick through the previous days race cards especially when you have 8 flat cards to evaluate.

The 5.10 Redcar yesterday was an interesting race where the first 2 home Yorksters Prince +17 and Taro Tywod +15 improved their speed figures considerably.

I had the going for Redcar yesterday at +0.18s/f (good to firm) and my initial thought was I had under estimated the going allowance and it should have been
up around the +0.25s/f per furlong mark, but checking on the Racing Post website Dave Edwards had his going at +0.20s/f.

I could not see any bias between the round and straight parts of the racecourse So I left the going at +0.18s/f after reading the Racing Posts correspondents notes:

Not much of a race and nothing could live with YORKSTERS PRINCE, who was driven to lead on leaving the stalls and soon extended his advantage. It looked as though his rider may
have overdone the forcing tactics, but the gelding just kept rolling to improve his record at this track to 5-8, winning with more authority than the official margin suggests.

This bit made my mind up: "winning with more authority than the official margin suggests"

As I already had Yorksters Prince in my tracker list as an +10 improver, another win looks to be cards :cool:
 
Yorksters Prince is 5-8 at Redcar but 1-35 elsewhere. If he returns to Redcar next Wednesday he may well go in again. There is a class 5 over 10f that he will qualify for and there is a class 6 over 8f which he also will qualify for. There is also a seller over 10f which he won in 2011.He's won five times over 10f, four times at Redcar.
 
23/7/13

7.35 Flos Las
You know something is amiss when Men Don't Cry a 46 rated handicapper dips under the standard by 2.62s to set a new course record,
my initial reaction was WTF :minigun:

So there I am looking at a speed figure of 117 at 0.00s/f per furlong, this gives the game away, the round course must have been lightening fast,
I end up with a going allowance of +0.65s/f (hard) on the round course and +0.50s/f (firm) on the straight course :cool:

Men Don't Cry +15

Ed de Giles the new trainer of Men Don't Cry should follow up with another win, and how the handicapper will react to his improved performance
your guess is as good as mine :cool:
 
24/7/13

8.30 Naas
General Bunching +10

The Going at Naas was +0.36s/f (good to firm) for the 5f/6f races, and over the mile trip the going was 20lb per furlong faster at +0.56s/f (firm) :cool:
 
Hi Mike. That Men Don't Cry has a DI of 2.08 which means he was always going to be suited by the step up to 12f. He should improve again.

However, that was his first win in 23 so why have connections waited until now to run him over his ideal distance. He was rated 60 a year ago.
He had an entry for the 5.00 at Bath today over 8f which obviously he isn't taking up.

If your figures are correct, I don't doubt them, he has to be backed over 12f until beaten. Your figures say he has a stone in hand, and indeed he actually has judging him on his form 12 months ago.

Good spot :cool:
 
mlmrob said:
Hi Mike. That Men Don't Cry has a DI of 2.08 which means he was always going to be suited by the step up to 12f. He should improve again.
However, that was his first win in 23 so why have connections waited until now to run him over his ideal distance. He was rated 60 a year ago.
He had an entry for the 5.00 at Bath today over 8f which obviously he isn't taking up.
If your figures are correct, I don't doubt them, he has to be backed over 12f until beaten. Your figures say he has a stone in hand, and indeed he actually has judging him on his form 12 months ago.
Good spot :cool:
Click to expand...

I see that Dave Edwards had his going allowance on the round course the same as I did at +0.65s/f :cool:
 
26/7/13

8.55 Chepstow: Bohemian Rhapsody +6

5.25 Thirsk: Oil Strike +5

4.30 Thirsk: Azagal

Azagal who is a 2yo filly, I had to mention her as she is improving at a rate of knots, her speed figure of 67 was impressive to say the least :cool:

8.00 York: Frog Hollow +8

It was one of those days where several horses jumped off the page at me :D
 
Azagal is in the Lowther.

Oil Strike is in at Ayr on Monday and Nottingham on Thursday. Likely he will run in both.
 
28/7/13

The going at Carlisle yesterday was +0.03s/f (good) and not soft as advertised.

5.30 Carlisle: Dreamwalker +9 (entered in at 5.00 Ayr today) :cool:

From Saturdays meeting at Deauville a very good 2yo filly Lacarolina made her debut and she beat the joint top of my French 2yo speed figures
So In Love, Lacarolina earned a speed figure of 73 from me, and this marks her out to be something special :cool:
 
Cheers Mike.

What was the going at Pontefract yesterday? The jockeys didn't know, ranging from good to soft :eek:

I am interested in Captain Scooby, ran 7th in the last yday, when he has his conditions and he is in at Leicester on Thursday where the ground is already described as soft. He is 0-12 on good ground but is a different horse with cut and I would be interested to know if the ground was different to that reported. Thanks.
 
mlmrob said:
Cheers Mike.

What was the going at Pontefract yesterday? The jockeys didn't know, ranging from good to soft :eek:

I am interested in Captain Scooby, ran 7th in the last yday, when he has his conditions and he is in at Leicester on Thursday where the ground is already described as soft. He is 0-12 on good ground but is a different horse with cut and I would be interested to know if the ground was different to that reported. Thanks.
Click to expand...

I had the going for Pontefract yesterday at +0.17s/f (good), Dave Edwards had it at -0.02s/f (good), which in my book is too low,
it inflates the speed figures on the day :minigun:

The official going descriptions given some days are so far out he makes my eyes water, yesterday they had the going on the turf at Deauville as good to soft/soft
if that was true Elusive Kate would have had a speed figure of 151 a new world record :minigun: , the going was actually good to firm at +0.25s/f and Elusive Kate
speed figure was 110 :cool:
 
Thanks Mike, looks like Leicester on Wednesday night provided it doesn't dry out.

I know racecourses are built on different soil types but can someone enlighten me as to why Ayr, going stick 8.4 is soft and Windsor, going stick 8.5 is good to firm and Uttoxeter, going stick 6.5,is good to soft.

Did Ayr buy their stick off Del Trotter!!!
 
mlmrob said:
Thanks Mike, looks like Leicester on Wednesday night provided it doesn't dry out.
I know racecourses are built on different soil types but can someone enlighten me as to why Ayr, going stick 8.4 is soft and Windsor, going stick 8.5 is good to firm and Uttoxeter, going stick 6.5,is good to soft.
Did Ayr buy their stick off Del Trotter!!!
Click to expand...

If you look at the meeting at AYR today the official going was GOING: SOFT, HEAVY IN PLACES (8.4).

I just looked at the meeting and the actual going was on the slow side of good at -0.15s/f :cool:

02:00 Les Gar Gan 6f -0.15 37
02:30 Jinky 5f -0.15 77
03:00 Beat The Tide 1m5f -0.15 11
03:30 Monel 7f -0.15 37
04:00 Save The Bees 1m1f -0.15 45
04:30 Le Chat D´Or 1m -0.15 62
05:00 Dream Walker 1m -0.15 60

Turf going allowance table:
Firm +0.55s/f to +0.63s/f
Good/firm +0.20s/f to +0.53s/f
Good -0.25s/f to +0.18s/f
Good/soft -0.55s/f to -0.28s/f
Soft -1.00s/f to -0.58s/f
Heavy -1.58s/f to -1.03s/f

So if I was to take Ayr's clerk of the course word on the going, I would have to increase
each horses speed figure by 43lbs, frightening isn't it :minigun:

Jinky +4 who is the one to take from the meeting, would have had a speed figure of 77+43 =120 if the ground was soft :minigun:

Food for thought :D
 
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