Statting Island
- Thread starter mlmrob
- Start date
mlmrob
Sire
Cheers Dave 
RACING PLUS CHASE
Some quite strong trends for this race.
14-15 winners had an official rating of 140+
14-15 winners had previously won over 21f.
14-15 winners had won at class 2 or better
14-15 winners came from the first six in the betting
15-15 winners were priced at 11/1 or less.
14-15 winners were placed in the first five LTO.
14-15 winners had run within 90 days.
13-15 winners had run in 4 or less chases during the season, from August.
By applying the rules we are left with Wyck Hill and Nacarat.
Only 4 horses have won this event in the last 15 years aged in double figures. That would normally knock out Nacarat but such is his record in this race it is folly to ignore him. Four attampts have seen two wins and two places.
Wyck Hill looks a solid favourite but only 4 horses in the last 15 years have carried under 11-0 to victory. However, three of the last four winners have carried; 11-0, 10-5,10-13.
RACING PLUS CHASE
Some quite strong trends for this race.
14-15 winners had an official rating of 140+
14-15 winners had previously won over 21f.
14-15 winners had won at class 2 or better
14-15 winners came from the first six in the betting
15-15 winners were priced at 11/1 or less.
14-15 winners were placed in the first five LTO.
14-15 winners had run within 90 days.
13-15 winners had run in 4 or less chases during the season, from August.
By applying the rules we are left with Wyck Hill and Nacarat.
Only 4 horses have won this event in the last 15 years aged in double figures. That would normally knock out Nacarat but such is his record in this race it is folly to ignore him. Four attampts have seen two wins and two places.
Wyck Hill looks a solid favourite but only 4 horses in the last 15 years have carried under 11-0 to victory. However, three of the last four winners have carried; 11-0, 10-5,10-13.
mlmrob
Sire
OH CRICK 3.20 CHEPSTOW
Oh Crick won this race last year off 137 and off 140 and a decent 7lbs claimer on board, he looks very well handicapped today.
He has a second to Ulck De Lin under this pilot in December which looks rock solid with that horse winning again off 10lbs higher. His last two races can be forgotten as they were on heavy ground. The blinkers are back on that he wore in this event last year and he has followed the same route.
Dunowen Point races off a career high mark. He was beaten off Cloudy Too last time who went onto to win again off 8lbs higher. He should run well but all his chase wins have come in races in with 7 or less runners, he should be okay with 8 runners but all his wins have been on flatter tracks.
All three of Ballygarvey's wins have come in fields of 6 or less runners. They were all on heavy ground. He has never placed in three races on undulating tracks, pulling up twice and has never placed over 16 furlongs, 0-3. He has never placed in four runs on good to soft.
Doeslessthanme is 8-15 over 16-16.5 furlongs and 3-4 on good to soft. He is still 3lbs higher than his last win. He is on the limit and both his chases on undulating tracks have not been promising.
Renard comes here after being a neck behind Oh Crick last time and is 1lb better off.
He should run well as he has conditions to suit but his record in class 2 reads 0-4. He is still 2lbs higher than his last win and I think he may need a drop in grade to collect again.Nevertheless, he should be thereabouts.
Oiseau De Nuit won over course and distance three runs back off 150 and is off 152 today with a very good claimer on board. However, he is 0-9 when carrying 11-5 or more, 11-3 being the most weight he has carried to victory in a handicap.
Cornas has won after a break before but he is 0-4 carrying 11-7 or more in a handicap.All his wins have come on right handed tracks, 0-10 going left handed.
Gus Macrae is 0-5 on undulating tracks and 0-8 when returning after a break of 30 days or more.
Conclusion. Oh Crick ticks many boxes for a repeat in this race and with doubts about all his rivals he looks a very good bet to return a profit if he just places. 25% win, 75% place.
Oh Crick won this race last year off 137 and off 140 and a decent 7lbs claimer on board, he looks very well handicapped today.
He has a second to Ulck De Lin under this pilot in December which looks rock solid with that horse winning again off 10lbs higher. His last two races can be forgotten as they were on heavy ground. The blinkers are back on that he wore in this event last year and he has followed the same route.
Dunowen Point races off a career high mark. He was beaten off Cloudy Too last time who went onto to win again off 8lbs higher. He should run well but all his chase wins have come in races in with 7 or less runners, he should be okay with 8 runners but all his wins have been on flatter tracks.
All three of Ballygarvey's wins have come in fields of 6 or less runners. They were all on heavy ground. He has never placed in three races on undulating tracks, pulling up twice and has never placed over 16 furlongs, 0-3. He has never placed in four runs on good to soft.
Doeslessthanme is 8-15 over 16-16.5 furlongs and 3-4 on good to soft. He is still 3lbs higher than his last win. He is on the limit and both his chases on undulating tracks have not been promising.
Renard comes here after being a neck behind Oh Crick last time and is 1lb better off.
He should run well as he has conditions to suit but his record in class 2 reads 0-4. He is still 2lbs higher than his last win and I think he may need a drop in grade to collect again.Nevertheless, he should be thereabouts.
Oiseau De Nuit won over course and distance three runs back off 150 and is off 152 today with a very good claimer on board. However, he is 0-9 when carrying 11-5 or more, 11-3 being the most weight he has carried to victory in a handicap.
Cornas has won after a break before but he is 0-4 carrying 11-7 or more in a handicap.All his wins have come on right handed tracks, 0-10 going left handed.
Gus Macrae is 0-5 on undulating tracks and 0-8 when returning after a break of 30 days or more.
Conclusion. Oh Crick ticks many boxes for a repeat in this race and with doubts about all his rivals he looks a very good bet to return a profit if he just places. 25% win, 75% place.
mlmrob
Sire
PENSETT BAY 3.25 TOWCESTER
Pensett Bay is 2-2 in chases round here and has been given a rest since running in what looked an ordinary chase at Lingfield in November.However, it doesn't look so ordinary now.
Pete The Feat won the race and he has franked the form by winning off 8lbs higher and finishing third in a graded chase off 17lbs higher.
Well Refreshed fell at the second last when holding every chance and has subsequently won three including a graded chase off 29lbs higher.
The Black Baron who pulled up, won the other day at Fakenham.
Pensett Bay runs off the same mark here. Since Jo Hughes put the cheekpieces on him he has won three and placed second twice from just 7 races.
He has conditions to suit.
Speedy Bruere looks certain to improve on his fourth at Chepstow last time. Both the second and third have subsequently won. He is by Turgeon so the going and distance shouldn't present a problem.However, he is very lightly raced since winning in France three years ago and it is possible the horse has had his problems. Bridgwater is 0-4 in handicap chases here.
It is interesting that Kate Buckett has brought Join The Navy to Towcester as he is a Fontwell specialist. Join The Navy struggled off this mark last time and Kate is 0-6 at Towcester.
Valley View is back on his last winning mark and has won round here. It is interesting that Jonjo has reached for the tongue tie as he only has a 9% strike rate, 13-143,with horses wearing the tongue tie for the first time. He has had just 3 winners from 63 runners in the last fortnight so stableform is a big worry.
In his prime The Sawyer would carry this lot around here. However, it is three years since he won and he is 1-23 on good to soft ground.
Charlie Longsdon is on a losing run of 29 so Topaze Collonges can be passed over. He has form to win this but the handicapper might have him now. He has never placed in class 4 nor has he won on good to soft, 0-4.
Orang Outan is from a yard with 1 winner from 41 runners. He has one maiden chase win to his name back in 2006.
Handsome Buddy is a dark horse. This is just his second chase start so he could feasibly improve. He hasn't shown much in all 8 starts though. Michael Gates is on a losing run of 18 stretching back to October. With just 2 winners from 33 runners in the last year it is a leap of faith to part with money to support this horse.
Pyracantha is 0-10 on undulating tracks, so I don't think he will like Towcester.
Father Shine won at Musselburgh in December. It doesn't pay to take the mick out of the handicapper and he had his say putting him up 10lbs. He struggled off this mark at Wetherby. He has never placed carrying more than 11-0 in a handicap.
Conclusion: Pensett Bay won the novices handicap chase on this card last year and he has been found a very suitable opportunity in his quest to keep his 100% record at Towcester.
Pensett Bay is 2-2 in chases round here and has been given a rest since running in what looked an ordinary chase at Lingfield in November.However, it doesn't look so ordinary now.
Pete The Feat won the race and he has franked the form by winning off 8lbs higher and finishing third in a graded chase off 17lbs higher.
Well Refreshed fell at the second last when holding every chance and has subsequently won three including a graded chase off 29lbs higher.
The Black Baron who pulled up, won the other day at Fakenham.
Pensett Bay runs off the same mark here. Since Jo Hughes put the cheekpieces on him he has won three and placed second twice from just 7 races.
He has conditions to suit.
Speedy Bruere looks certain to improve on his fourth at Chepstow last time. Both the second and third have subsequently won. He is by Turgeon so the going and distance shouldn't present a problem.However, he is very lightly raced since winning in France three years ago and it is possible the horse has had his problems. Bridgwater is 0-4 in handicap chases here.
It is interesting that Kate Buckett has brought Join The Navy to Towcester as he is a Fontwell specialist. Join The Navy struggled off this mark last time and Kate is 0-6 at Towcester.
Valley View is back on his last winning mark and has won round here. It is interesting that Jonjo has reached for the tongue tie as he only has a 9% strike rate, 13-143,with horses wearing the tongue tie for the first time. He has had just 3 winners from 63 runners in the last fortnight so stableform is a big worry.
In his prime The Sawyer would carry this lot around here. However, it is three years since he won and he is 1-23 on good to soft ground.
Charlie Longsdon is on a losing run of 29 so Topaze Collonges can be passed over. He has form to win this but the handicapper might have him now. He has never placed in class 4 nor has he won on good to soft, 0-4.
Orang Outan is from a yard with 1 winner from 41 runners. He has one maiden chase win to his name back in 2006.
Handsome Buddy is a dark horse. This is just his second chase start so he could feasibly improve. He hasn't shown much in all 8 starts though. Michael Gates is on a losing run of 18 stretching back to October. With just 2 winners from 33 runners in the last year it is a leap of faith to part with money to support this horse.
Pyracantha is 0-10 on undulating tracks, so I don't think he will like Towcester.
Father Shine won at Musselburgh in December. It doesn't pay to take the mick out of the handicapper and he had his say putting him up 10lbs. He struggled off this mark at Wetherby. He has never placed carrying more than 11-0 in a handicap.
Conclusion: Pensett Bay won the novices handicap chase on this card last year and he has been found a very suitable opportunity in his quest to keep his 100% record at Towcester.
mlmrob
Sire
BASSETT ROAD 6.30 KEMPTON
Keith Dalgleish and Joe Fanning are a partnership to follow on the London beaches. Just 18 times they have teamed up at Lingfield or Kempton and they have returned with 5 winners and 8 placed horses. In the last 12 months their record reads; 2W22W233.
Bassett Road produced a speed figure of 74 in January when he beat Jack My Boy and has some 6lbs in hand of that off todays mark. Jack My Boy has franked the form twice, the latest off 5lbs higher in a better grade. He is 0-6 at Kempton which is off putting and so is his sulky run which connections were dumfounded by. His fifth last time has been franked by second winning.
ACTIVATE 8.30 KEMPTON
They also team up with Activate in the 8.30 and he has his first run for Dalgleish. Dalgleish is 6-45 with other peoples cast offs on their debut run for him and 3-18 when Fanning rides. Four from five have placed in London with one winning, so he may be thereabouts.
MAISON BRILLET 8.30 KEMPTON
Maison Brillet produced a speed figure 70 when winning last time and still has 5lbs in hand on his follow up bid. Maison Brillet is 2-3 when racing over 12 furlongs on sand in class 6 and his overall record in class 6 reads W228W.
Conclusion; Three horses who should run well tonight and each one will be backed 25% on the win and 75% on the place.
Keith Dalgleish and Joe Fanning are a partnership to follow on the London beaches. Just 18 times they have teamed up at Lingfield or Kempton and they have returned with 5 winners and 8 placed horses. In the last 12 months their record reads; 2W22W233.
Bassett Road produced a speed figure of 74 in January when he beat Jack My Boy and has some 6lbs in hand of that off todays mark. Jack My Boy has franked the form twice, the latest off 5lbs higher in a better grade. He is 0-6 at Kempton which is off putting and so is his sulky run which connections were dumfounded by. His fifth last time has been franked by second winning.
ACTIVATE 8.30 KEMPTON
They also team up with Activate in the 8.30 and he has his first run for Dalgleish. Dalgleish is 6-45 with other peoples cast offs on their debut run for him and 3-18 when Fanning rides. Four from five have placed in London with one winning, so he may be thereabouts.
MAISON BRILLET 8.30 KEMPTON
Maison Brillet produced a speed figure 70 when winning last time and still has 5lbs in hand on his follow up bid. Maison Brillet is 2-3 when racing over 12 furlongs on sand in class 6 and his overall record in class 6 reads W228W.
Conclusion; Three horses who should run well tonight and each one will be backed 25% on the win and 75% on the place.
mlmrob
Sire
Cheers Ark.
DEFINITE RUBY 5.30 DONCASTER
Since 2005 Nicky Henderson is 5-10 when he sends one horse to Doncaster. That improves to 5-8 when they go off at single figure odds. He does well in mares only races with 111 winners from 399 runners, 13-51 in handicap hurdles.
Definite Ruby was beaten some 14ls by Alder Mairi last time on ground that didn't suit. That horse had run in a listed race previously coming up against She Ranks Me, Little Glenshee and Scholastica. Before that Definite Ruby was just beaten over course and distance. Strong form. She also held an entry in the Novice Hurdle where she would have been up against 127 rated Call Me A Star, so Henderson has opted for the easier option. She could well be very well handicappped on 115.
Given Keith Reveley's record in handicap hurdles here, 5-10 in the last 12 months Broctune Papa Gio may well be of interest in the first race. The fact he is 3-33 in handicap chases at Donny would suggest today is not the day for Brave Spartacus.
DEFINITE RUBY 5.30 DONCASTER
Since 2005 Nicky Henderson is 5-10 when he sends one horse to Doncaster. That improves to 5-8 when they go off at single figure odds. He does well in mares only races with 111 winners from 399 runners, 13-51 in handicap hurdles.
Definite Ruby was beaten some 14ls by Alder Mairi last time on ground that didn't suit. That horse had run in a listed race previously coming up against She Ranks Me, Little Glenshee and Scholastica. Before that Definite Ruby was just beaten over course and distance. Strong form. She also held an entry in the Novice Hurdle where she would have been up against 127 rated Call Me A Star, so Henderson has opted for the easier option. She could well be very well handicappped on 115.
Given Keith Reveley's record in handicap hurdles here, 5-10 in the last 12 months Broctune Papa Gio may well be of interest in the first race. The fact he is 3-33 in handicap chases at Donny would suggest today is not the day for Brave Spartacus.
mlmrob
Sire
SIMPLY A LEGEND 5.35 NEWBURY
Alan King does really well with the offspring of Midnight Legend when making their racecourse debut, 6-11, which improves to 6-10 in bumpers. Choc is 2-4 on them. 1-2 at Newbury. Not strong stats but in a race where theres not much to go on he looks an each way poke at the current odds.
Alan King does really well with the offspring of Midnight Legend when making their racecourse debut, 6-11, which improves to 6-10 in bumpers. Choc is 2-4 on them. 1-2 at Newbury. Not strong stats but in a race where theres not much to go on he looks an each way poke at the current odds.
mlmrob
Sire
BALLYRONE 2.15 FFOS LAS
Rebecca Curtis has a very good record with horses who won their National Hunt Flat Race and are making their debut over hurdles in a maiden. 12 runners have seen six win and three place with her record at Ffos Las;WW2 from just three runners.
FOREST EDGE 5.00 KEMPTON
Forest Edge has produced a speed figure of 81 which is 11 points better than anything else in this race. He is 5-16 over 6 furlongs which improves to 5-12 when there are 11 or less runners. Adam Kirby is 2-3 on him.
Forest Edge and Blue Jack are the only front runners in the field and as Blue Jack is drawn widest of all and just 1-16 over 6 furlongs, he might just have to use up too much energy just to keep tabs on Forest Edge. He has one class 6 win to his name and is 0-4 in this grade on sand. He is up two grades and 3lbs.
Crew Cut won over course and distance last time and in the grade but he is up 3lbs and his speed figure of 62 is way too short to consider backing him off this mark.
Hamoody should run well but has to improve. He won his first two races over 6 furlongs as a 2yo and hasn't won over the distance since, 0-19.
Kakatosi is the only other horse in the race the market is friendly towards. Four of his five wins have come over 7 furlongs. His trainer sent out nine runners in February and they all lost.
Conclusion: Adam Kirby may well be able to set soft fractions here and he may well not see another horse.
Rebecca Curtis has a very good record with horses who won their National Hunt Flat Race and are making their debut over hurdles in a maiden. 12 runners have seen six win and three place with her record at Ffos Las;WW2 from just three runners.
FOREST EDGE 5.00 KEMPTON
Forest Edge has produced a speed figure of 81 which is 11 points better than anything else in this race. He is 5-16 over 6 furlongs which improves to 5-12 when there are 11 or less runners. Adam Kirby is 2-3 on him.
Forest Edge and Blue Jack are the only front runners in the field and as Blue Jack is drawn widest of all and just 1-16 over 6 furlongs, he might just have to use up too much energy just to keep tabs on Forest Edge. He has one class 6 win to his name and is 0-4 in this grade on sand. He is up two grades and 3lbs.
Crew Cut won over course and distance last time and in the grade but he is up 3lbs and his speed figure of 62 is way too short to consider backing him off this mark.
Hamoody should run well but has to improve. He won his first two races over 6 furlongs as a 2yo and hasn't won over the distance since, 0-19.
Kakatosi is the only other horse in the race the market is friendly towards. Four of his five wins have come over 7 furlongs. His trainer sent out nine runners in February and they all lost.
Conclusion: Adam Kirby may well be able to set soft fractions here and he may well not see another horse.
mlmrob
Sire
Thanks Taffman, much appreciated.
CARLISLE 3.45
This race has been run 9 times since 2003. In that time two favourites have won and three horses in double figure odds.
The main trends are.
9-9 winners didn't win last time out.
9-9 winners were aged 8-10
9-9 winners carried 11-6 or less
9-9 winners had run at Carlisle before.
The four trends narrow the field to Blazing Diva, Etxalar, Barnevelder.
Blazing Diva won this in 2010 off 97 and was second off 98 last year. Must have a good chance off 85. McGrath just the one ride for Sandy Thomson. Thomson has had 8 runners in handicap chases at Carlisle returning the following figures; 27218254.
Blazing Diva is 0-8 on good to soft or quicker so the forecast rain needs to get in.
Etxalar is 1-4 at Carlisle; 1825 and is 12 from two runs over this distance. He will handle the quicker ground. Both his wins have come after a break. His 9l 6th off 8lbs higher in a better class race at Musselburgh when he just weakened out of it after the last looks decent form in the context of this race.
Barnevelder has his second race for Sandy Forster and it is almost a year since she tasted success. 25 have lost since though a couple have run into the frame this year. Barnevelder has never run on ground this quick though being by Old Vic he should handle it. He is still 7lbs above the mark he won off at Downpatrick. Too many negatives to be considered.
For me Extalar looks very well handicapped and he has his ideal conditions.
CARLISLE 3.45
This race has been run 9 times since 2003. In that time two favourites have won and three horses in double figure odds.
The main trends are.
9-9 winners didn't win last time out.
9-9 winners were aged 8-10
9-9 winners carried 11-6 or less
9-9 winners had run at Carlisle before.
The four trends narrow the field to Blazing Diva, Etxalar, Barnevelder.
Blazing Diva won this in 2010 off 97 and was second off 98 last year. Must have a good chance off 85. McGrath just the one ride for Sandy Thomson. Thomson has had 8 runners in handicap chases at Carlisle returning the following figures; 27218254.
Blazing Diva is 0-8 on good to soft or quicker so the forecast rain needs to get in.
Etxalar is 1-4 at Carlisle; 1825 and is 12 from two runs over this distance. He will handle the quicker ground. Both his wins have come after a break. His 9l 6th off 8lbs higher in a better class race at Musselburgh when he just weakened out of it after the last looks decent form in the context of this race.
Barnevelder has his second race for Sandy Forster and it is almost a year since she tasted success. 25 have lost since though a couple have run into the frame this year. Barnevelder has never run on ground this quick though being by Old Vic he should handle it. He is still 7lbs above the mark he won off at Downpatrick. Too many negatives to be considered.
For me Extalar looks very well handicapped and he has his ideal conditions.
mlmrob
Sire
BIG WATER 3.15 CARLISLE
Big Water ran in the Champion Bumper at Aintree, a race from which no less than 15 winners have come from. The New One and My Tent Or Yours filled the first two places in that race. He made his hurdling debut at Kelso and run into Duke Of Navan who has subsequently won again beating 155 rated Any Given Day off levels with 32ls back to the third horse who was rated 128.
His main rival, Witness In Court is the price he is because of who trains him and not his form, which can be described as moderate in comparison. Plus, he has to give 7lbs to Big Water.
Rocknrollrambo was 3rd on heavy ground at Ffos Las and James Banks offsets the 7lbs he has to give Big Water with his claim. He is by Winged Love so he will probably prefer more cut though he has travelled a long way.
Scarlett Fire beat Big Water in a bumper last year and is 6lbs worse off for the 0.5l. He hasn't shown anything since.
Conclusion: Alan Swinbank's last 8 runners have returned the following figures; 22112522. However, there is a big negative that he is just 1-21 in novice hurdles at Carlisle
Donald McCain's/ Jason Maguire's record with favourites in novice hurdles here since December 2011 reads 212111.
However, I feel that Big Water will prove to be better than the mark of 132 that Witness In Court has achieved and I'm quite happy to take the 2/1 in what is a virtual match.
GORGEOUS GOBLIN 5.00 SOUTHWELL
Gorgeous Goblin takes a major drop in class after running well in a listed race last time. She had some pretty decent animals behind her. Her record at Southwell over 5 furlongs reads; 342311, only once being out of the frame when beaten a head for third. She is 9lbs higher than her win here last May but she is a much better horse now and definitely ran above her mark last time. Fanning stays at Southwell to ride her before rushing off to Wolverhampton. He could have rode Frequency for Keith Dalgleish in the 6.10 at Wolves so it is interesting he has stayed to ride this mare before setting off.
Aubretia is now 16lbs higher than she was at the start of the year and the change in tactics to making the running has been the catalyst for the improved form. She won't have things her own way with Royal Bajan, Rylee Mooch and Six Wives in the field.
Dorback is 0-11 when carrying more than 9-0 and is just 1-10 over 5 furlongs though he has a win and a second from two races on fibresand. He is 0-7 when returning from a break of 30 days or more.
Royal Bajan is 4lbs worse off for 2l when beating Dorback two runs back. He has been beaten 11ls twice and 9ls when racing off 82 in the past. Likes to lead which will be a problem today.
Six Wives won this race off this mark last year. That was her only win in class 4 from 22 starts. She won't be suited by the way this is run and she is 0-6 in cheekpieces.
Crown Choice is the only recognised hold up horse in the race. However, Paul Midgely is yet to find the key to him, 0-11 in his care. Four of his five wins have come over 7 furlongs and he is just 1-16 over a straight course. Midgely will find a race for him, probably over 7 furlongs around a bend.
Rylee Mooch is 0-9 when returning to the track inside 7 days and 0-7 at Southwell.
Conclusion; Aubretia should run well but she may well get involved in a pace battle and at the prices, Gorgeous Goblin is tasty and she should prove her run last time was no fluke. She should settle just off the pace and when the pacesetters have cried enough she should pounce.
Big Water ran in the Champion Bumper at Aintree, a race from which no less than 15 winners have come from. The New One and My Tent Or Yours filled the first two places in that race. He made his hurdling debut at Kelso and run into Duke Of Navan who has subsequently won again beating 155 rated Any Given Day off levels with 32ls back to the third horse who was rated 128.
His main rival, Witness In Court is the price he is because of who trains him and not his form, which can be described as moderate in comparison. Plus, he has to give 7lbs to Big Water.
Rocknrollrambo was 3rd on heavy ground at Ffos Las and James Banks offsets the 7lbs he has to give Big Water with his claim. He is by Winged Love so he will probably prefer more cut though he has travelled a long way.
Scarlett Fire beat Big Water in a bumper last year and is 6lbs worse off for the 0.5l. He hasn't shown anything since.
Conclusion: Alan Swinbank's last 8 runners have returned the following figures; 22112522. However, there is a big negative that he is just 1-21 in novice hurdles at Carlisle
Donald McCain's/ Jason Maguire's record with favourites in novice hurdles here since December 2011 reads 212111.
However, I feel that Big Water will prove to be better than the mark of 132 that Witness In Court has achieved and I'm quite happy to take the 2/1 in what is a virtual match.
GORGEOUS GOBLIN 5.00 SOUTHWELL
Gorgeous Goblin takes a major drop in class after running well in a listed race last time. She had some pretty decent animals behind her. Her record at Southwell over 5 furlongs reads; 342311, only once being out of the frame when beaten a head for third. She is 9lbs higher than her win here last May but she is a much better horse now and definitely ran above her mark last time. Fanning stays at Southwell to ride her before rushing off to Wolverhampton. He could have rode Frequency for Keith Dalgleish in the 6.10 at Wolves so it is interesting he has stayed to ride this mare before setting off.
Aubretia is now 16lbs higher than she was at the start of the year and the change in tactics to making the running has been the catalyst for the improved form. She won't have things her own way with Royal Bajan, Rylee Mooch and Six Wives in the field.
Dorback is 0-11 when carrying more than 9-0 and is just 1-10 over 5 furlongs though he has a win and a second from two races on fibresand. He is 0-7 when returning from a break of 30 days or more.
Royal Bajan is 4lbs worse off for 2l when beating Dorback two runs back. He has been beaten 11ls twice and 9ls when racing off 82 in the past. Likes to lead which will be a problem today.
Six Wives won this race off this mark last year. That was her only win in class 4 from 22 starts. She won't be suited by the way this is run and she is 0-6 in cheekpieces.
Crown Choice is the only recognised hold up horse in the race. However, Paul Midgely is yet to find the key to him, 0-11 in his care. Four of his five wins have come over 7 furlongs and he is just 1-16 over a straight course. Midgely will find a race for him, probably over 7 furlongs around a bend.
Rylee Mooch is 0-9 when returning to the track inside 7 days and 0-7 at Southwell.
Conclusion; Aubretia should run well but she may well get involved in a pace battle and at the prices, Gorgeous Goblin is tasty and she should prove her run last time was no fluke. She should settle just off the pace and when the pacesetters have cried enough she should pounce.
Larry
Stallion
Rob your work is as always brilliant, I looked at the 3.45 & came up with BLAZING DIVA if the ground was right, trainer states only runs if sufficient rain so I'm going to trust the trainer & if BD is withdrawn you have made an excellent case for Extalar thank you so much for your excellent work
all the best
Larry
all the best
Larry
mlmrob
Sire
Thanks Larry, much appreciated.
Judging the by the ride given to Gorgeous Goblin today was definitely not the day. The winner could be very interesting on turf off her present mark.
Big Water needs to learn how jump. Mind you following Swinbank at present is proving to be profitable.
Judging the by the ride given to Gorgeous Goblin today was definitely not the day. The winner could be very interesting on turf off her present mark.
Big Water needs to learn how jump. Mind you following Swinbank at present is proving to be profitable.
mlmrob
Sire
Thanks Ashlene
KAYFTON PETE 4.10 LEICESTER
Kayfton Pete ran in a better race than this last time and was in the process of running a big race when he got bumped into three fences from home. That knocked his momentum but he still kept on to finish a credible third to Sawpit Supreme. The fourth horse, Groomed, won the other day, whilst Sawpit Supreme was second btn 1l yesterday off 3lbs higher. Kayfton Pete ran off a mark of 100 and drops a couple of pounds to 98 and a very good amateur, Conor Shoemark, takes a further 7lbs off to make the horse very well handicapped.
Be My Deputy is the form horse and he and Oddjob fought out a finish over course and distance last time. BMD is up another 7lbs for that. Since the blinkers were applied he has never been out of the frame in five races with two wins and is now 16lbs higher than he was at the start of February. The ground is much slower today, btn 6ls and 40ls on the two occasions he has encountered it, and even with top amateur Nico De Boinville taking 3lbs off his 12-5, it is an enormous amount of weight to carry round here on soft ground.
Oddjob should turn the tables on 7lbs better terms for his 0.5l beating by Be My Deputy. That was just his third ouring for David Pipe so there should be some improvement to come. Three times he has encountered soft ground and twice he failed to finish and the other he was beaten 44ls. David Pipe is yet to have a winner in March, 0-15.
Chapel House won this last year and is 11lbs higher for a repeat bid. He won at Hereford off a mark of 96 so it isnt impossible. However, he hasn't completed in three races on soft or heavy. He is 0-9, never placed, when returning to the track after a break of 30 days or more.
Himayna is a 29 race maiden and 0-7 when returning to the track after a break of 30 days or more, just placing the once. Chris Kellett is 0-52 with horses having their first start for him after leaving another yard.
Kinkeel will decide whether he wants to break his losing run of 29 startching back to January 2011. He has won 5 races in his career stretching some 124 races and he is 0-22 over 20-20.5 furlongs.Three of his five wins have come on right handed tracks but he is 0-8 at Leicester.
Conclusion; Weight and ground will count against Be My Deputy and David Pipe's current form puts a dampener on Oddjob's chance.(now a non runner) Kayfton Pete is very well handicapped and this is just his sixth chase. Fergal O Brien has only had the horse since the turn of the year and he looks a cracking price
KAYFTON PETE 4.10 LEICESTER
Kayfton Pete ran in a better race than this last time and was in the process of running a big race when he got bumped into three fences from home. That knocked his momentum but he still kept on to finish a credible third to Sawpit Supreme. The fourth horse, Groomed, won the other day, whilst Sawpit Supreme was second btn 1l yesterday off 3lbs higher. Kayfton Pete ran off a mark of 100 and drops a couple of pounds to 98 and a very good amateur, Conor Shoemark, takes a further 7lbs off to make the horse very well handicapped.
Be My Deputy is the form horse and he and Oddjob fought out a finish over course and distance last time. BMD is up another 7lbs for that. Since the blinkers were applied he has never been out of the frame in five races with two wins and is now 16lbs higher than he was at the start of February. The ground is much slower today, btn 6ls and 40ls on the two occasions he has encountered it, and even with top amateur Nico De Boinville taking 3lbs off his 12-5, it is an enormous amount of weight to carry round here on soft ground.
Oddjob should turn the tables on 7lbs better terms for his 0.5l beating by Be My Deputy. That was just his third ouring for David Pipe so there should be some improvement to come. Three times he has encountered soft ground and twice he failed to finish and the other he was beaten 44ls. David Pipe is yet to have a winner in March, 0-15.
Chapel House won this last year and is 11lbs higher for a repeat bid. He won at Hereford off a mark of 96 so it isnt impossible. However, he hasn't completed in three races on soft or heavy. He is 0-9, never placed, when returning to the track after a break of 30 days or more.
Himayna is a 29 race maiden and 0-7 when returning to the track after a break of 30 days or more, just placing the once. Chris Kellett is 0-52 with horses having their first start for him after leaving another yard.
Kinkeel will decide whether he wants to break his losing run of 29 startching back to January 2011. He has won 5 races in his career stretching some 124 races and he is 0-22 over 20-20.5 furlongs.Three of his five wins have come on right handed tracks but he is 0-8 at Leicester.
Conclusion; Weight and ground will count against Be My Deputy and David Pipe's current form puts a dampener on Oddjob's chance.(now a non runner) Kayfton Pete is very well handicapped and this is just his sixth chase. Fergal O Brien has only had the horse since the turn of the year and he looks a cracking price
mlmrob
Sire
Henderson and Geraghty at Sandown in handicaps are pretty potent. 7 wins from 30 runners. However, that improves massively by the age of the horse
4-6yos 7-18
7yos+ 0-12
It's a 38% strike rate and a LSP of 34.75.
Just the one qualifier today, Close Touch 2.05.
Close Touch holds an entry in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys race next week where he would probably bump into African Gold again. I think he will probably miss that engagement and is probably on a fair mark.
This is a target race for them as well. Their only four runners in the race have finished 4161.
4-6yos 7-18
7yos+ 0-12
It's a 38% strike rate and a LSP of 34.75.
Just the one qualifier today, Close Touch 2.05.
Close Touch holds an entry in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys race next week where he would probably bump into African Gold again. I think he will probably miss that engagement and is probably on a fair mark.
This is a target race for them as well. Their only four runners in the race have finished 4161.
mlmrob
Sire
Imperial Cup Key Trends
16-16 winners had run in two or less handicap hurdles in Britain or Ireland..
16-16 winners were priced at 20/1 or less
15-16 winners carried 11-6 or less.
9-9 winners carried less than 11-0
15-16 winners were aged 4-7.
Applying those trends leaves
Tominator, Pine Creek, Claret Cloak, Arnaud, Valdez, Le Bacardy
However, in recent years a trend that is starting to look a lot stronger is that the horses must not be bred in Great Britain. 13-16 winners were bred in Ireland, France or Germany including the last 10.
That trend alone knocks out, Tominator, Pine Creek and Valdez.
Claret Cloak didnt get through the ground at Newbury in the Betfair Trophy and there is no reason to suggest he will here. Emma Lavelle has gone 65 runners without a winner stretching back to December.
Arnaud ran in the Fred Winter last year but he only has a maiden hurdle win to his name. He will find this easier and will handle the ground.
Le Bacardy has just had the two runs in the UK but has run a load of times in handicap hurdles in France. He is probably too exposed for this.
Conclusion: A difficult race to weigh up as the trends knock out the first and second favourite. Gigginstown have entered Arnaud in the County Hurdle as well as this so their intentions are well known. There is no Blackstairmountain or Foster Cross whom Arnaud split at Cork in January so he might have a few pounds in hand here and will handle the conditions.
16-16 winners had run in two or less handicap hurdles in Britain or Ireland..
16-16 winners were priced at 20/1 or less
15-16 winners carried 11-6 or less.
9-9 winners carried less than 11-0
15-16 winners were aged 4-7.
Applying those trends leaves
Tominator, Pine Creek, Claret Cloak, Arnaud, Valdez, Le Bacardy
However, in recent years a trend that is starting to look a lot stronger is that the horses must not be bred in Great Britain. 13-16 winners were bred in Ireland, France or Germany including the last 10.
That trend alone knocks out, Tominator, Pine Creek and Valdez.
Claret Cloak didnt get through the ground at Newbury in the Betfair Trophy and there is no reason to suggest he will here. Emma Lavelle has gone 65 runners without a winner stretching back to December.
Arnaud ran in the Fred Winter last year but he only has a maiden hurdle win to his name. He will find this easier and will handle the ground.
Le Bacardy has just had the two runs in the UK but has run a load of times in handicap hurdles in France. He is probably too exposed for this.
Conclusion: A difficult race to weigh up as the trends knock out the first and second favourite. Gigginstown have entered Arnaud in the County Hurdle as well as this so their intentions are well known. There is no Blackstairmountain or Foster Cross whom Arnaud split at Cork in January so he might have a few pounds in hand here and will handle the conditions.
mlmrob
Sire
ADMIRAL DUQUE 4.40 WOLVERHAMPTON
Admiral Duque loves it round here, 4-14. However, over 14 furlongs that improves 3-4. He won this race off 77 two years ago so he has to be of interest off 10lbs lower.
He was given a run out three days ago to blow the cobwebs away. He is 4-7 when returning to the track inside 7 days and that improves to 3-3 when it's at Wolverhampton.
Broxbourne has gone up 25lbs this year and goes for the five timer. She is clearly thriving at present but she steps up in grade. The last horse Johnston trained to win five in a row was Attraction in 2004. Seven have tried since and all have failed.
Admiral Duque loves it round here, 4-14. However, over 14 furlongs that improves 3-4. He won this race off 77 two years ago so he has to be of interest off 10lbs lower.
He was given a run out three days ago to blow the cobwebs away. He is 4-7 when returning to the track inside 7 days and that improves to 3-3 when it's at Wolverhampton.
Broxbourne has gone up 25lbs this year and goes for the five timer. She is clearly thriving at present but she steps up in grade. The last horse Johnston trained to win five in a row was Attraction in 2004. Seven have tried since and all have failed.