Statting Island
- Thread starter mlmrob
- Start date
mlmrob
Sire
Cheers guys, thanks for popping in
THEDEBOFTHEYEAR 2.50 TAUNTON
Thedebofheyear won this race last year and off 9lbs higher and she is of interest today. She loves this track with two wins and two places from just four races and she showed enough last time to suggest she is ready to boil today.
She was made favourite for a better race than this and finished her race well after becoming outpaced three out behind Grassfinch and Big Time Billy.
Chris Down has won and two and placed second in two since March 1st from just nine runners.
Qalinas is going to be popular to follow up his win last time. He should stay the extra distance and he has improved since starting to race in the van. However, David Pipe is 0-20 in March and on a losing run of 25. He is 12-101 in handicap hurdles at Taunton.
Rocky Bender was just behind Qalinas last time and is 4lbs better off for the two lengths he was beaten. He is by Saddlers Hall so he step up in trip shouldn't matter and he has already won a point. My worry is that Saddlers Hall's progeny have an awful record going right handed, 278-3688, 7% and he hung left last time n a left handed track.Venetia Williams does will in handicap hurdles here, 12-36. (Non Runner)
Brockwell Park is another point to point winner being educated under rules before her chasing career starts. She ran well in a mares hurdle in January and she kept on without ever threatening. The step up in trip will suit. Jeremy Scott is in form at present but he is just 1-16 in handicap hurdles at Taunton and he is just 3-33 in handicap hurdles with horses that have not won under rules.
Joseph Mercer won his maiden hurdle well enough but fifteen horses have come out of that race and failed with just the one placing. He hasn't shown much since. Both his races since have seen him trail home. Down to a mark of 115 should see him be more competitive but he has to lump 11-12 around and he is yet to carry that much weight under rules.
I can't have the others, Tin Pot Man 13lbs higher than his last hurdle win and 0-11 when returning to the track inside a month.Miss Overdrive 0-6 on soft ground. Orion Express 0-6 on soft ground.
Conclusion: With Venetia's horse now a non runner this makes this race much easier for Thedeboftheyear. It is clearly a target race and she is exceptionally well handicapped.
THEDEBOFTHEYEAR 2.50 TAUNTON
Thedebofheyear won this race last year and off 9lbs higher and she is of interest today. She loves this track with two wins and two places from just four races and she showed enough last time to suggest she is ready to boil today.
She was made favourite for a better race than this and finished her race well after becoming outpaced three out behind Grassfinch and Big Time Billy.
Chris Down has won and two and placed second in two since March 1st from just nine runners.
Qalinas is going to be popular to follow up his win last time. He should stay the extra distance and he has improved since starting to race in the van. However, David Pipe is 0-20 in March and on a losing run of 25. He is 12-101 in handicap hurdles at Taunton.
Rocky Bender was just behind Qalinas last time and is 4lbs better off for the two lengths he was beaten. He is by Saddlers Hall so he step up in trip shouldn't matter and he has already won a point. My worry is that Saddlers Hall's progeny have an awful record going right handed, 278-3688, 7% and he hung left last time n a left handed track.Venetia Williams does will in handicap hurdles here, 12-36. (Non Runner)
Brockwell Park is another point to point winner being educated under rules before her chasing career starts. She ran well in a mares hurdle in January and she kept on without ever threatening. The step up in trip will suit. Jeremy Scott is in form at present but he is just 1-16 in handicap hurdles at Taunton and he is just 3-33 in handicap hurdles with horses that have not won under rules.
Joseph Mercer won his maiden hurdle well enough but fifteen horses have come out of that race and failed with just the one placing. He hasn't shown much since. Both his races since have seen him trail home. Down to a mark of 115 should see him be more competitive but he has to lump 11-12 around and he is yet to carry that much weight under rules.
I can't have the others, Tin Pot Man 13lbs higher than his last hurdle win and 0-11 when returning to the track inside a month.Miss Overdrive 0-6 on soft ground. Orion Express 0-6 on soft ground.
Conclusion: With Venetia's horse now a non runner this makes this race much easier for Thedeboftheyear. It is clearly a target race and she is exceptionally well handicapped.
mlmrob
Sire
Cheers Ashlene, much appreciated.
SHAWKANTANGO 4.25 SOUTHWELL
Shawkantango returns to fibresand where he is 4-9. He rattled up a four timer two years ago and is currently on a losing run of five here. However, his record in class 6 over 5 furlongs reads 112 from just three races and he should have been unbeaten as he was slowly away and his rider dropped his whip, he was just beaten a short head. He produced the best time figures last time of these and his 63 is clear of anything achieved in the last three races. His class figures are also clear of the opposition.
Rated 60, he was once again thwarted in a close finish last time in a better race as his slow start from a wide draw cost him again. Down in class and over the straight five with a middle draw, he must go close.
Imjin River is his biggest danger but is 30 months since he won his last race. He continues to run well despite being a perpetual slow starter. He has a win and a third on fibresand from two races and the booking of Robert Tart takes the eye.
Lesleys Choice has won twelve races all over five furlongs and is 3-11 here. He is 6-16 in class 6 but five of those were in claimers. He is yet to win a race after returning from a break of 30 days or more, 0-8.
Nafa is 0-12 on the all weather. She won her sole race back in 2011 at Ayr. She run in an awful race last time leading two furlongs out but not seeing her effort through. That is her profile, she doesn't seem to see out her races. She will have to improve on her best speed figure of 38 to figure and she may well need to drop into class 7.
Steel City Boy will get all the love and attention he requires at the Stokell's but it is unlikely he will taste much success. Racing is a hobby for his owner trainer and with two wins from her last 100 runners, therein lies his chance. He is 2-11 at Southwell.
Molly Jones is 0-12 over 5 furlongs and 0-12 on all weather surfaces,0-3 at Southwell.
Nine Before Ten is 0-15 on the all weather, 0-3 at Southwell and 0-14 over 5 furlongs.
Rafaf is 0-7 on the all weather and 0-2 at Southwell both unplaced. Never placed from six races when carrying more than 9-5 in a handicap.
Lord Buffhead is 0-6 at Southwell. Unplaced in two runs in eyeshields.
Bird Dog has been beaten between 11ls and 40ls in his last 8 races, can't be supported with any enthusiasm.
Forever Janey is a 13 race maiden whose beat form is a 6l second in a maiden in 2011.
Conclusion: This is a terrible race but Shawkantango has been found a very good opportunity. There should be enough pace as a few of these do tend to run quickly for two or three furlongs and with the rail to help her I would expect Nafa to lead and make it a decent pace. Even if he is slow away, Shawkantango should pick these off with the minmum of fuss.
SHAWKANTANGO 4.25 SOUTHWELL
Shawkantango returns to fibresand where he is 4-9. He rattled up a four timer two years ago and is currently on a losing run of five here. However, his record in class 6 over 5 furlongs reads 112 from just three races and he should have been unbeaten as he was slowly away and his rider dropped his whip, he was just beaten a short head. He produced the best time figures last time of these and his 63 is clear of anything achieved in the last three races. His class figures are also clear of the opposition.
Rated 60, he was once again thwarted in a close finish last time in a better race as his slow start from a wide draw cost him again. Down in class and over the straight five with a middle draw, he must go close.
Imjin River is his biggest danger but is 30 months since he won his last race. He continues to run well despite being a perpetual slow starter. He has a win and a third on fibresand from two races and the booking of Robert Tart takes the eye.
Lesleys Choice has won twelve races all over five furlongs and is 3-11 here. He is 6-16 in class 6 but five of those were in claimers. He is yet to win a race after returning from a break of 30 days or more, 0-8.
Nafa is 0-12 on the all weather. She won her sole race back in 2011 at Ayr. She run in an awful race last time leading two furlongs out but not seeing her effort through. That is her profile, she doesn't seem to see out her races. She will have to improve on her best speed figure of 38 to figure and she may well need to drop into class 7.
Steel City Boy will get all the love and attention he requires at the Stokell's but it is unlikely he will taste much success. Racing is a hobby for his owner trainer and with two wins from her last 100 runners, therein lies his chance. He is 2-11 at Southwell.
Molly Jones is 0-12 over 5 furlongs and 0-12 on all weather surfaces,0-3 at Southwell.
Nine Before Ten is 0-15 on the all weather, 0-3 at Southwell and 0-14 over 5 furlongs.
Rafaf is 0-7 on the all weather and 0-2 at Southwell both unplaced. Never placed from six races when carrying more than 9-5 in a handicap.
Lord Buffhead is 0-6 at Southwell. Unplaced in two runs in eyeshields.
Bird Dog has been beaten between 11ls and 40ls in his last 8 races, can't be supported with any enthusiasm.
Forever Janey is a 13 race maiden whose beat form is a 6l second in a maiden in 2011.
Conclusion: This is a terrible race but Shawkantango has been found a very good opportunity. There should be enough pace as a few of these do tend to run quickly for two or three furlongs and with the rail to help her I would expect Nafa to lead and make it a decent pace. Even if he is slow away, Shawkantango should pick these off with the minmum of fuss.
mlmrob
Sire
CHELTENHAM 2.40
The key trends for this race are
15-15 winners had won a class 3 chase.
14-15 winners had an official rating of 145 or less
14-15 winners carried 11-2 or less
14-15 winners were first or second season chasers
14-15 winners were aged between 7 and 10.
13-15 winners finished in the first six last time out.
By applying those trends we are left with Loch Ba, Golden Chieftain and Monkerty Tunkerty.
I am not 100% on Monkerty Tunkerty as he has been point to pointing for a few years and being classed as a first or second season chaser is stretching the trend a bit.
11 of the last 15 winners were Irish Bred.
That leaves LOCH BA and GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN
Both will handle the ground and distance and looks decent each way pokes.
CHELTENHAM 3.20
There are lots of trends around for this race which most of these pass. However, the main one is the age one. 13-15 winners were aged 6-8. There has been one five year old and one 9 year old.
There is one other trend of which is 12-15 winners were not bred in Great Britain including eight of the last nine.
The trend that I like is the record of six year olds in the race the year after they competed in the race the year before. In the last 15 years just eight five year olds have finished fifth or better in the Champion Hurdle and this is their record in the race as a 6yo; 32176141.
ZARKANDER passes all the trends.
The key trends for this race are
15-15 winners had won a class 3 chase.
14-15 winners had an official rating of 145 or less
14-15 winners carried 11-2 or less
14-15 winners were first or second season chasers
14-15 winners were aged between 7 and 10.
13-15 winners finished in the first six last time out.
By applying those trends we are left with Loch Ba, Golden Chieftain and Monkerty Tunkerty.
I am not 100% on Monkerty Tunkerty as he has been point to pointing for a few years and being classed as a first or second season chaser is stretching the trend a bit.
11 of the last 15 winners were Irish Bred.
That leaves LOCH BA and GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN
Both will handle the ground and distance and looks decent each way pokes.
CHELTENHAM 3.20
There are lots of trends around for this race which most of these pass. However, the main one is the age one. 13-15 winners were aged 6-8. There has been one five year old and one 9 year old.
There is one other trend of which is 12-15 winners were not bred in Great Britain including eight of the last nine.
The trend that I like is the record of six year olds in the race the year after they competed in the race the year before. In the last 15 years just eight five year olds have finished fifth or better in the Champion Hurdle and this is their record in the race as a 6yo; 32176141.
ZARKANDER passes all the trends.
was on ew cheers
dave58
Administrator
I think it should be your decision to be fair, rob - you may wish all our members to gain from your knowledge or you may wish to restrict it to those deemed 'worthy' of inclusion in the inner sanctum.
I can see reasons for and against, so it's not for us mods to decide - sorry, it was an 'off-the-cuff' remark to be honest and not meant to put you on the spot at all , I do apologise
- maybe let sleeping dogs lie 
I can see reasons for and against, so it's not for us mods to decide - sorry, it was an 'off-the-cuff' remark to be honest and not meant to put you on the spot at all , I do apologise
- maybe let sleeping dogs lie 
Great stuff today Rob, AGAIN 
Larry
Stallion
I like this thread by Rob, but why does it have to go in the inner sanctum. This forum is invite only & I dont think guests can just come in & wander around, so the only people that see this is invited members. I dont know but I also dont think anyone is selling Robs work so why does it have to go in the inner sanctum, Its ok I'm not asking for entrance into the hallowed halls, I'm just wondering why if a common pleb enjoys a thread, it has to be taken away into the inner sanctum. Rob is already a member of the inner sanctum so he could have posted this in there from the off but chose to share it. I havent made any money off this thread but its one of the 1st I look to, to see if he has picked a race that I have picked.
Sorry about my post but I honestly cant see why this thread cant stay in the open on a closed forum
all the best
Larry
Sorry about my post but I honestly cant see why this thread cant stay in the open on a closed forum
all the best
Larry
dave58
Administrator
Larry said:
Larry - I do apologise mate - you are quite right , my comment was very ill-advised - it was a somewhat heavy-handed attempt at a compliment to Rob and should have been worded differently.
You are quite correct in all you say, and hands up, the fault is all mine , sorry .
Sorry to all for any misunderstanding
Dave
btw there are no 'common plebs' on this forum - everyone has an equal right to voice their opinion and everyone's opinion is valid.
our posts crossed rob - thanks for your comment - sorry if I embarrassed you.
mlmrob
Sire
BOSTON BOB 2.40 CHELTENHAM
There are two emerging trends which give Boston Bob a massive chance here.
10-10 winners were placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd in a Grade 1 or 2 Chase.
6-6 winners were rated 136 or higher over hurdles.
The other strong trends are
14-15 winners were first or second last time out.
14-15 winners were aged 6-8
13-15 winners were Irish Bred.
Boston Bob is the only horse that clears all the trends. He was a high class hurdler finishing second in the Albert Bartlett a year ago and will handle the conditions and noise.
There are two emerging trends which give Boston Bob a massive chance here.
10-10 winners were placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd in a Grade 1 or 2 Chase.
6-6 winners were rated 136 or higher over hurdles.
The other strong trends are
14-15 winners were first or second last time out.
14-15 winners were aged 6-8
13-15 winners were Irish Bred.
Boston Bob is the only horse that clears all the trends. He was a high class hurdler finishing second in the Albert Bartlett a year ago and will handle the conditions and noise.