Statting Island
- Thread starter mlmrob
- Start date
tonyhall1977
Yearling
so did bob rob rob or did rob rob bob??? loltaffman said:
tonyhall1977
Yearling
keep up the superb work mlmrob!
mlmrob
Sire
Cheers guys.
OUR VINNIE 2.40 CHELTENHAM
Although this race has only been run for 8 years, there is one telling trend. All eight winners had finished first, second or third in a graded race. That trend alone usually decimates this field and this year it is no exception.
Just At Fishers Cross, Inish Island and Our Vinnie have such form.
Every winner was in the first five of the betting.
Charles Byrnes has had four runners in this race with one winner and two placed. The unplaced horse had not finished in the first three in a graded race. Both Liskennett and Powerstation, who were placed in this, had finished in the first three in a graded race.Our Vinnie has to be included as he has followed the same route as Weapons Amnesty who won this for the yard. He beat Rule The World who went to beat Champagne Fever 40ls and then finish second behind The New One the other day. On a line through The New One he shouldn't beat At Fishers Cross but as everyone knows, The New One didn't run well the day he was beaten by AFC.
At Fishers Cross beat The New One in the Classic Hurdle but before that his form was decent but it shouldn't be good enough for this. He could well win but for he is a bit short.
Inish Island just won a maiden hurdle in November before getting beat 1.5ls by At Fishers Cross getting 3lbs in a class 2. He then improved to win a grade 3 at Clonmel.
Conclusion: Given Charles Byrne's record in this race and Our Vinnie popped across to Cheltenham in October to familiarise himself with the course, Our Vinnie looks a very good each way bet at the prices.
LONG RUN 3.20 CHELTENHAM
There are three sets of key trends which cannot be ignored in this race.
10-10 winners ran in the King George or Lexus Chase. Nine of those finished first or second in those events.
6-6 were amongst the highest three rated on official figures as well as 11 of the last 13. The two that were not were Kicking King and War Of Attrition who did not have an official rating.
13-13 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase.
Is finding the Gold Cup winner really that easy?
This years qualifiers are Long Run, Captian Chris, The Giant Bolster and Sir Des Champs.
The Giant Bolster and Sir Des Champs fail because they were not in the first two of those events nor are they rated in the top 3 on official ratings.
Long Run and Captain Chris finished first and second at Kempton and Captain Chris is just fourth top rated on official figures.
That leaves Long Run who clearly has what it takes to win a Gold Cup. He has done it before.
OUR VINNIE 2.40 CHELTENHAM
Although this race has only been run for 8 years, there is one telling trend. All eight winners had finished first, second or third in a graded race. That trend alone usually decimates this field and this year it is no exception.
Just At Fishers Cross, Inish Island and Our Vinnie have such form.
Every winner was in the first five of the betting.
Charles Byrnes has had four runners in this race with one winner and two placed. The unplaced horse had not finished in the first three in a graded race. Both Liskennett and Powerstation, who were placed in this, had finished in the first three in a graded race.Our Vinnie has to be included as he has followed the same route as Weapons Amnesty who won this for the yard. He beat Rule The World who went to beat Champagne Fever 40ls and then finish second behind The New One the other day. On a line through The New One he shouldn't beat At Fishers Cross but as everyone knows, The New One didn't run well the day he was beaten by AFC.
At Fishers Cross beat The New One in the Classic Hurdle but before that his form was decent but it shouldn't be good enough for this. He could well win but for he is a bit short.
Inish Island just won a maiden hurdle in November before getting beat 1.5ls by At Fishers Cross getting 3lbs in a class 2. He then improved to win a grade 3 at Clonmel.
Conclusion: Given Charles Byrne's record in this race and Our Vinnie popped across to Cheltenham in October to familiarise himself with the course, Our Vinnie looks a very good each way bet at the prices.
LONG RUN 3.20 CHELTENHAM
There are three sets of key trends which cannot be ignored in this race.
10-10 winners ran in the King George or Lexus Chase. Nine of those finished first or second in those events.
6-6 were amongst the highest three rated on official figures as well as 11 of the last 13. The two that were not were Kicking King and War Of Attrition who did not have an official rating.
13-13 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase.
Is finding the Gold Cup winner really that easy?
This years qualifiers are Long Run, Captian Chris, The Giant Bolster and Sir Des Champs.
The Giant Bolster and Sir Des Champs fail because they were not in the first two of those events nor are they rated in the top 3 on official ratings.
Long Run and Captain Chris finished first and second at Kempton and Captain Chris is just fourth top rated on official figures.
That leaves Long Run who clearly has what it takes to win a Gold Cup. He has done it before.
mlmrob
Sire
FARMLEIGH HOUSE 2.20 LINGFIELD
Though Farmleigh House is 5-12 on the all weather, all his wins have come over 6 furlongs. However, there are three front runners in this plus a couple more who like to race prominently and that should guarantee his stamina should come into play.
Farmleigh House can be held up or race just off the pace.
The key to this race comes from just two races. Ladies Are Forever beat Farmleigh House, Fratellino and York Glory over 6 furlongs last time and there was no pace. You would expext York Glory and Farmleigh House to be suited by the way the race will be run today.
York Glory is 0-2, never placed in two races in listed company and only 1-8 in class 2 and above.
Fratellino will be taken on for the lead. He won this last year and is currently on a losing run of 15.
Ladies Are Forever is 3lbs worse off for a length with Farmleigh House and that should be enough to turn the tables. She is W2 from just two runs at the track.
The other key race is a 6f handicap in which Tarooq beat Intransigent over six furlongs. Tarooq has never run over 5 furlongs but the race will be run to suit him. He is 4lbs better off for beating Intransigent a head last week.
Conclusion; All of the principals are dropping in distance but the fact it will be fast and furious should suit Farmleigh House and he looks a nice price.
GREY MIRAGE 4.40 LINGFIELD
Although\he is drawn widest of all here, Grey Mirage is the only recognised front runner in the race and Jimmy Quinn should be able to set soft fractions.
Grey Mirage produced a speed figure of 84 last time and a class rating of 94, which is the best of the bunch here. The form of his last race is very strong with the third horse, Loyalty, winning next time and then finishing second beaten a neck off 6lbs higher in a better class race. Aquilonius was down the field and he has also franked the form.
George Guru won this race last year off 88 and has never won a race off a mark higher than 91. His record off marks 92-95 reads 0-8.
Dubai Dynamo is a false price due to Hugh Taylor tipping him up. Not the most consistent of horses he produced the second best speed figure in the race last time when he recorded 76 behind Tarooq. In the last two years his winning marks have been between 77 and 88 and it is three years and eight races since he won on the all weather.
Mias Boy is on a losing run of 18 and is still only 4lbs lower than that last mark. Just 1-12 on the sand here and 1-11 in class 2. The win was in 2008.
Conclusion; If Quinn gets Grey Mirage on the front end and dictates matters, nothing will come off the pace and mug him.
LINGFIELD DERBY TRIAL
The last six winners of this event were in the top 3 rated on official ratings. Add to the trend that all of the last six winners had won in listed company or better and the trends leave just two horses.
FARRAAJ and PREMIO LOCO.
They can be dutched to return around a 4/5 winner.
MIDLANDS GRAND NATIONAL
14-14 WINNERS WERE AGED 7-9
14-14 WINNERS HAD AN OFFICIAL RATING OF 143 OR LESS
14-14 WINNERS HAD WON NO MORE THAN TWICE IN THE CURRENT SEASON.
Those three trends leaves us four to work with; Fill The Power, One In A Milan, Chac Du Cadran, Global Power.
13-14 winners had won a race over at least 24 furlongs. That eliminates Fill The Power and Global Power.
CHAC DU CADRAN and ONE IN A MILAN are left as the likely winners from trends.
Though Farmleigh House is 5-12 on the all weather, all his wins have come over 6 furlongs. However, there are three front runners in this plus a couple more who like to race prominently and that should guarantee his stamina should come into play.
Farmleigh House can be held up or race just off the pace.
The key to this race comes from just two races. Ladies Are Forever beat Farmleigh House, Fratellino and York Glory over 6 furlongs last time and there was no pace. You would expext York Glory and Farmleigh House to be suited by the way the race will be run today.
York Glory is 0-2, never placed in two races in listed company and only 1-8 in class 2 and above.
Fratellino will be taken on for the lead. He won this last year and is currently on a losing run of 15.
Ladies Are Forever is 3lbs worse off for a length with Farmleigh House and that should be enough to turn the tables. She is W2 from just two runs at the track.
The other key race is a 6f handicap in which Tarooq beat Intransigent over six furlongs. Tarooq has never run over 5 furlongs but the race will be run to suit him. He is 4lbs better off for beating Intransigent a head last week.
Conclusion; All of the principals are dropping in distance but the fact it will be fast and furious should suit Farmleigh House and he looks a nice price.
GREY MIRAGE 4.40 LINGFIELD
Although\he is drawn widest of all here, Grey Mirage is the only recognised front runner in the race and Jimmy Quinn should be able to set soft fractions.
Grey Mirage produced a speed figure of 84 last time and a class rating of 94, which is the best of the bunch here. The form of his last race is very strong with the third horse, Loyalty, winning next time and then finishing second beaten a neck off 6lbs higher in a better class race. Aquilonius was down the field and he has also franked the form.
George Guru won this race last year off 88 and has never won a race off a mark higher than 91. His record off marks 92-95 reads 0-8.
Dubai Dynamo is a false price due to Hugh Taylor tipping him up. Not the most consistent of horses he produced the second best speed figure in the race last time when he recorded 76 behind Tarooq. In the last two years his winning marks have been between 77 and 88 and it is three years and eight races since he won on the all weather.
Mias Boy is on a losing run of 18 and is still only 4lbs lower than that last mark. Just 1-12 on the sand here and 1-11 in class 2. The win was in 2008.
Conclusion; If Quinn gets Grey Mirage on the front end and dictates matters, nothing will come off the pace and mug him.
LINGFIELD DERBY TRIAL
The last six winners of this event were in the top 3 rated on official ratings. Add to the trend that all of the last six winners had won in listed company or better and the trends leave just two horses.
FARRAAJ and PREMIO LOCO.
They can be dutched to return around a 4/5 winner.
MIDLANDS GRAND NATIONAL
14-14 WINNERS WERE AGED 7-9
14-14 WINNERS HAD AN OFFICIAL RATING OF 143 OR LESS
14-14 WINNERS HAD WON NO MORE THAN TWICE IN THE CURRENT SEASON.
Those three trends leaves us four to work with; Fill The Power, One In A Milan, Chac Du Cadran, Global Power.
13-14 winners had won a race over at least 24 furlongs. That eliminates Fill The Power and Global Power.
CHAC DU CADRAN and ONE IN A MILAN are left as the likely winners from trends.
mlmrob
Sire
LIMERICK 5.55
There have been some high class horses in this bumper over the last five years. The following finished in the first two home and have gone on to better things; Mozoltov, Ted Veale, Mount Benbullen, Acey, Minella Class, Western Leader, Skorcher, Jessies Dream, Clopf and Woodbine Willie.
It will be worth noting the first two home and following them.
There have been some high class horses in this bumper over the last five years. The following finished in the first two home and have gone on to better things; Mozoltov, Ted Veale, Mount Benbullen, Acey, Minella Class, Western Leader, Skorcher, Jessies Dream, Clopf and Woodbine Willie.
It will be worth noting the first two home and following them.
mlmrob
Sire
VIVA RONALDO 4.10 DONCASTER
Richard Fahey has a superb record in this. Since 2009 he has won it three times and failed last year with Viva Ronaldo. Viva Ronaldo then went on to win next time at his beloved Chester.
Here is the conundurum. Is this a prep race for Chester or is Viva Ronaldo regressing and the Chester race is not on the agenda. Viva Ronaldo races off 75 today which would not be high enough for him to get in the Chester race. He won it off 84 last year. So, is he primed to win first time and get a penalty to ensure he gets in at Chester or is he regressive now and this is his level.
Samantha Bell takes off 7lbs so there is no doubt he is very well handicapped. Samantha has come over from Kevin Prendergast's where she rode 10 winners from 89 winners. She appears to be good value for her claim.
Viva Ronaldo looks a decent each way poke.
MANSONIEN LAS 4.35 SEDGEFIELD
Ferdy Murphy appears to be turning the corner and this is a race he has targetted over the years winning it three times including two of the last three.
Mansonien Las has never been out of the frame over 27 furlongs here and has won once. He will handle the ground, only twice out of the frame from 7 races on soft or heavy.James Reveley has never been out of the frame on the gelding from three races and has won once.
Overyou is a live danger but she is 10lbs higher than his first winning mark in chases. She is clearly an improving sort and Diarmuid O Regan is good value for his claim. She has a string of seconds on soft and heavy ground, 5-11, but she has never won and she is 0-7 beyond 24 furlongs though once again she has a couple of seconds. She is also 0-5 when returning to the track inside a fortnight.
Soudain run in the worst class 3 I have seen for some time last week. Before that he weakened quickly over this course and distance which was puzzling as he stays further so I can only think he found the mark of 111 beyond him. Off 109 and with Paul Bohan taking off 7lbs he should run well but he is 3lbs worse off with Overyou after their meeting at Market Rasen.
Heez A Steel comes from a yard that would find it hard to train ivy up a wall nevermind racehorses. With just 2 winners from their last 105 runners, you would need a leap of faith or countertfeit money to support this one.
Classic Cut's both wins have come as favourite and both in non handicaps. He is 0-6 in handicap chases with ten lengths the closest he has got to a winner. He is 0-3 beyond 26 furlongs.
James Ewart is 3-8 in handicap chases here but with Overyou in the field, Classic Cut won't have thing his own way up front.
Conclusion; Overyou and Classic Cut may well cut each others throats over this stamina sapping trip. That would leave Soudain and Mansonien Las to fight it out.
Soudain shouldn't beat Overyou on these terms. Given Murphy's record in the race, Mansonien Las could plug on best to win this for the fourth time for the West Witton wizard.
Richard Fahey has a superb record in this. Since 2009 he has won it three times and failed last year with Viva Ronaldo. Viva Ronaldo then went on to win next time at his beloved Chester.
Here is the conundurum. Is this a prep race for Chester or is Viva Ronaldo regressing and the Chester race is not on the agenda. Viva Ronaldo races off 75 today which would not be high enough for him to get in the Chester race. He won it off 84 last year. So, is he primed to win first time and get a penalty to ensure he gets in at Chester or is he regressive now and this is his level.
Samantha Bell takes off 7lbs so there is no doubt he is very well handicapped. Samantha has come over from Kevin Prendergast's where she rode 10 winners from 89 winners. She appears to be good value for her claim.
Viva Ronaldo looks a decent each way poke.
MANSONIEN LAS 4.35 SEDGEFIELD
Ferdy Murphy appears to be turning the corner and this is a race he has targetted over the years winning it three times including two of the last three.
Mansonien Las has never been out of the frame over 27 furlongs here and has won once. He will handle the ground, only twice out of the frame from 7 races on soft or heavy.James Reveley has never been out of the frame on the gelding from three races and has won once.
Overyou is a live danger but she is 10lbs higher than his first winning mark in chases. She is clearly an improving sort and Diarmuid O Regan is good value for his claim. She has a string of seconds on soft and heavy ground, 5-11, but she has never won and she is 0-7 beyond 24 furlongs though once again she has a couple of seconds. She is also 0-5 when returning to the track inside a fortnight.
Soudain run in the worst class 3 I have seen for some time last week. Before that he weakened quickly over this course and distance which was puzzling as he stays further so I can only think he found the mark of 111 beyond him. Off 109 and with Paul Bohan taking off 7lbs he should run well but he is 3lbs worse off with Overyou after their meeting at Market Rasen.
Heez A Steel comes from a yard that would find it hard to train ivy up a wall nevermind racehorses. With just 2 winners from their last 105 runners, you would need a leap of faith or countertfeit money to support this one.
Classic Cut's both wins have come as favourite and both in non handicaps. He is 0-6 in handicap chases with ten lengths the closest he has got to a winner. He is 0-3 beyond 26 furlongs.
James Ewart is 3-8 in handicap chases here but with Overyou in the field, Classic Cut won't have thing his own way up front.
Conclusion; Overyou and Classic Cut may well cut each others throats over this stamina sapping trip. That would leave Soudain and Mansonien Las to fight it out.
Soudain shouldn't beat Overyou on these terms. Given Murphy's record in the race, Mansonien Las could plug on best to win this for the fourth time for the West Witton wizard.
mlmrob
Sire
JOHN BISCUIT 3.40 LINGFIELD
John Biscuit could well be very well handicapped here today with the useful Thomas Brown claiming 5lbs.
He produced a speed figure of 84 the last time he was on a racecourse and none of this field can get near that even with their best figures. The fact the John Biscuit has 92 in his locker suggests there may well be more to come. He was a very good third behind Viking Spirit who won a class 2 off 6lbs higher.
He wears the hood for the first time and Andrew Balding's record with horses who wear the hood for the first time is decent. It is even better when they go off at single figure odds; 232312 from just six races in the last year.
ALS MEMORY 4.10 LINGFIELD
Als Memory 71, Forest Edge 71 and Blue Jack 68 are the dominant speed figures from the last time out figures. The fact that Als Memory achieved his with a class figure of 90 compared to Blue Jack 83, and Forest Edge 75, suggests that Als Memory is the one to be with here. His third to Tarooq and Intransigent last time looks rock solid with Tarooq placing in listed company on his next run. Intransigent was made favourite for that race but didn't run to form.
Als Memory is better over 7 furlongs though he has won over 6f, as a 2yo, and the drop in class here should him to set a pace the others may well not match given his stamina to stay an extra furlong.
MILARROW 4.25 WINCANTON
Milarrow drops a couple of pounds and in grade and looks to have ideal coinditions today. His record in single figure fields reads; 3223121, only once out of the frame when 3rd of 6. His form behind Midnight sail has been franked by the sixth subsequently winning. He led that day and was passed but ran on again in the closing stages to suggest this extra ½ furlong and drop in class will help. He should handle the ground as he has decent form on soft.
John Biscuit could well be very well handicapped here today with the useful Thomas Brown claiming 5lbs.
He produced a speed figure of 84 the last time he was on a racecourse and none of this field can get near that even with their best figures. The fact the John Biscuit has 92 in his locker suggests there may well be more to come. He was a very good third behind Viking Spirit who won a class 2 off 6lbs higher.
He wears the hood for the first time and Andrew Balding's record with horses who wear the hood for the first time is decent. It is even better when they go off at single figure odds; 232312 from just six races in the last year.
ALS MEMORY 4.10 LINGFIELD
Als Memory 71, Forest Edge 71 and Blue Jack 68 are the dominant speed figures from the last time out figures. The fact that Als Memory achieved his with a class figure of 90 compared to Blue Jack 83, and Forest Edge 75, suggests that Als Memory is the one to be with here. His third to Tarooq and Intransigent last time looks rock solid with Tarooq placing in listed company on his next run. Intransigent was made favourite for that race but didn't run to form.
Als Memory is better over 7 furlongs though he has won over 6f, as a 2yo, and the drop in class here should him to set a pace the others may well not match given his stamina to stay an extra furlong.
MILARROW 4.25 WINCANTON
Milarrow drops a couple of pounds and in grade and looks to have ideal coinditions today. His record in single figure fields reads; 3223121, only once out of the frame when 3rd of 6. His form behind Midnight sail has been franked by the sixth subsequently winning. He led that day and was passed but ran on again in the closing stages to suggest this extra ½ furlong and drop in class will help. He should handle the ground as he has decent form on soft.
mlmrob
Sire
Cheers guys...
YANKEE STORM 3.10 LINGFIELD (EW)
Everyone and their uncle will want to be on Elusive Hawk after his speed figure of 74 last week. He is still 3lbs well in on that figure and is 4-7 when carrying 9-7 or more. However, he is 0-11 over 7 furlongs and plenty short enough in the betting to give credence to swerving him.
Yankee Storm isn't the most consistent horse but his record off marks 60-70 reads 6 wins from 31 races wiuth a further 11 placed. Five of those six wins have come when he has carried between 9-2 and 9-6 with a further four placed from just fourteen races.
All the wins were in class 5 or 6. Jim Crowley is 5-27 for Michael Wigham.
Conclusion: West Leake is on a losing run of 9 and two years in class 5. Valdaw is 0-2 and never placed in class 5 and 0-3 over 7 furlongs. He has run well over the distance but I get the impression it is just beyond him. Sannibel is 0-6 in class 5. That leaves Yankee Storm to serve it up to this favourite. Elusive Hawk may well bolt up but if he fails, Yankee Storm looks a very good each way bet to collect with the dead eight.
MOUNT ABORA 4.40 LINGFIELD (EW)
Mount Abora produced the best speed figure of this lot last time and returned a class figure of 58. She was previously runner up in a seller and returned a class figure of 64. She has run in three races where the top official rating has been 60 or less and has won one and placed in the other two, so she looks comfortable in her grade. She was second to Discovery Bay in a seller round here two runs back. That horse placed in a handicap the next day and the fifth home has since won a handicap. She was 11lbs wrong at the weights. Last time again she finished runner up in a race that looks like it will be decent form with the first three in the betting filling the first three places. She looks to be crying out for the extra furlong.
An interesting stat is in 24 races over 13 furlongs in class 6 round here, 13 have been won by the top 4 in the weights. This race has been run twice and both times it was won by a horse that was in the top four of the weights.Of those 13 winners, 12 were in the first six in the betting
The race today has a class rating of 60 which means Cozy Tiger, 52 last time, has to step up. He is in effect well handicapped but he isn't the same horse that won off 70 three years ago. Willie Musson is in form and the booking of Richard Hughes would appear to be significant though he is only 1-21 for the yard.
Irene Kennett looks a danger. She has improved since the application of the hood with a win off 53 and a couple of placed efforts off 58 and 60. She was one paced last time off this mark, so her mark, she races keenly and the fact she is drawn wide may count against her.
Conclusion: This is a poor race and even old El Libertador could go close but unfortunately for him he is trained by Eric Wheeler who is on a losing run of 90 stretching back to February 2012. I like the look of Mount Abora. She has a good record in this grade and the format of the race suits her. She looks far too big at her current price and she looks an each way steal.
YANKEE STORM 3.10 LINGFIELD (EW)
Everyone and their uncle will want to be on Elusive Hawk after his speed figure of 74 last week. He is still 3lbs well in on that figure and is 4-7 when carrying 9-7 or more. However, he is 0-11 over 7 furlongs and plenty short enough in the betting to give credence to swerving him.
Yankee Storm isn't the most consistent horse but his record off marks 60-70 reads 6 wins from 31 races wiuth a further 11 placed. Five of those six wins have come when he has carried between 9-2 and 9-6 with a further four placed from just fourteen races.
All the wins were in class 5 or 6. Jim Crowley is 5-27 for Michael Wigham.
Conclusion: West Leake is on a losing run of 9 and two years in class 5. Valdaw is 0-2 and never placed in class 5 and 0-3 over 7 furlongs. He has run well over the distance but I get the impression it is just beyond him. Sannibel is 0-6 in class 5. That leaves Yankee Storm to serve it up to this favourite. Elusive Hawk may well bolt up but if he fails, Yankee Storm looks a very good each way bet to collect with the dead eight.
MOUNT ABORA 4.40 LINGFIELD (EW)
Mount Abora produced the best speed figure of this lot last time and returned a class figure of 58. She was previously runner up in a seller and returned a class figure of 64. She has run in three races where the top official rating has been 60 or less and has won one and placed in the other two, so she looks comfortable in her grade. She was second to Discovery Bay in a seller round here two runs back. That horse placed in a handicap the next day and the fifth home has since won a handicap. She was 11lbs wrong at the weights. Last time again she finished runner up in a race that looks like it will be decent form with the first three in the betting filling the first three places. She looks to be crying out for the extra furlong.
An interesting stat is in 24 races over 13 furlongs in class 6 round here, 13 have been won by the top 4 in the weights. This race has been run twice and both times it was won by a horse that was in the top four of the weights.Of those 13 winners, 12 were in the first six in the betting
The race today has a class rating of 60 which means Cozy Tiger, 52 last time, has to step up. He is in effect well handicapped but he isn't the same horse that won off 70 three years ago. Willie Musson is in form and the booking of Richard Hughes would appear to be significant though he is only 1-21 for the yard.
Irene Kennett looks a danger. She has improved since the application of the hood with a win off 53 and a couple of placed efforts off 58 and 60. She was one paced last time off this mark, so her mark, she races keenly and the fact she is drawn wide may count against her.
Conclusion: This is a poor race and even old El Libertador could go close but unfortunately for him he is trained by Eric Wheeler who is on a losing run of 90 stretching back to February 2012. I like the look of Mount Abora. She has a good record in this grade and the format of the race suits her. She looks far too big at her current price and she looks an each way steal.
mlmrob
Sire
JOIN THE NAVY 4.40 FONTWELL
Join The Navy was made favourite for a better race than this last time but found Speedy Bruere 12ls too good for him. That horse has won again off 7lbs higher. Join The Navy has dropped 2lbs for that run and the fitting of a tongue tie should help him get home today as he would have finished second last time at Towcester but for running out of gas on the run in. He is still 11lbs higher than his win but the others have some serious negatives attached to them. Kate Buckett is 4-25 over the last 12 months but 2 of her last 11 runners have won and a further 4 have placed. The horse will handle the track, going and distance.
Chestnut Ben is the likely jolly but he finds the 18th furlong a problem. He looked all over the winner at the last here last time only to come to a standstill on the run in. The handicapper was so impressed he put him up 2lbs. He likes a nice easy 16/17 furlongs and although he has a couple of seconds here, he is 0-6 on stiff tracks.
Lady Willa has her ideal conditions and looks sure to make the running.She is yet to race this far over the larger obstacles.She is well handicapped off 87 but she is 0-10 in fields of 7 or less runners and 0-3 over 17 furlongs, the furthest she has travelled in a chase.
Tchang Goon races keenly, drops back, gets a second wind and stays on through beaten horses. He is 0-21 in all his races, 2lbs out of the handicap and it is a leap of faith to support him.
Goring Two won a three runner race over course and distance a year ago and the handicapper has had his say since. He is still 11lbs higher than that mark and his record off 2lbs higher reads 0-4. As a rule he generally runs well in class 5, 2-7, but this is a big ask off this mark.
Conclusion; With Goring Two, Tchang Goon and Lady Willa all liking to race prominently, this may well turn into a stamina test. Held up, usually way off the pace, Join The Navy should find this much easier than the contest he run well in last time and off 2lbs lower, he may well pick these off for fun.
YOUNG JACKIE 5.20 LINGFIELD
Connections were disappointed when Young Jackie was beaten last time over 8 furlongs. They felt the horse had come to win her race but was in front too soon and consequently tried to pull herself up. The visor replacing the blinkers should help her today as should the step up to 10 furlongs. She won both her races over 9.5 furlongs, so it should be ideal. She produced a speed figure of 58 last time so she has 5lbs in hand of her mark. She achieved a class rating of 51 which is the best of all of these.
Her style of running will negate the wide draw.
Capriska is 0-7 in all races and was given a very gentle time of it when she was last seen. She steps up to 10 furlongs where she has a 2l third to her name. She is by Bahri whose progeny are 3-43 here over 10 furlongs. These type of horses from Willie Musson tend to be overbet but he is 3-63 with maidens running in a handicap here.
Hollywood All Star is 0-14 in all races. The closest he has got to the winner on the sand is 3ls over 9.5 furlongs at Wolverhampton. Willie Muir is 4-74 with maidens running in a handicap here.
Salient, last win on sand was nearly three years ago and he is 0-20 since, Frosty Friday 0-13 on sand and from a yard with one winner from their last 27 runners, Roman Senate, 0-7 on sand, is from a yard that is 8-176 here, Fairy Mist has won a seller but is 0-20 in handicaps, Archelao 0-12 in handicaps and from a yard on a losing run of 71, Yalding Dancer could improve for the step up to 10 furlongs. She has never got involved in races over 7 furlongs. John Best is 10-196 with maidens in handicaps here and the last 32 have all lost, Dolly Colman makes up this particular bunch but she has won a class 7 a year ago. She was second btn 1l in January over course and distance which would give her a shout. But all of them are disappointing sorts.
Conclusion; This has to be one of the worst handicaps of the year and Young Jackie may well take a lot of beating. Jordan Vaughan will not make the same mistake as last time. Dolly Colman is a huge price considering the opposition.
Join The Navy was made favourite for a better race than this last time but found Speedy Bruere 12ls too good for him. That horse has won again off 7lbs higher. Join The Navy has dropped 2lbs for that run and the fitting of a tongue tie should help him get home today as he would have finished second last time at Towcester but for running out of gas on the run in. He is still 11lbs higher than his win but the others have some serious negatives attached to them. Kate Buckett is 4-25 over the last 12 months but 2 of her last 11 runners have won and a further 4 have placed. The horse will handle the track, going and distance.
Chestnut Ben is the likely jolly but he finds the 18th furlong a problem. He looked all over the winner at the last here last time only to come to a standstill on the run in. The handicapper was so impressed he put him up 2lbs. He likes a nice easy 16/17 furlongs and although he has a couple of seconds here, he is 0-6 on stiff tracks.
Lady Willa has her ideal conditions and looks sure to make the running.She is yet to race this far over the larger obstacles.She is well handicapped off 87 but she is 0-10 in fields of 7 or less runners and 0-3 over 17 furlongs, the furthest she has travelled in a chase.
Tchang Goon races keenly, drops back, gets a second wind and stays on through beaten horses. He is 0-21 in all his races, 2lbs out of the handicap and it is a leap of faith to support him.
Goring Two won a three runner race over course and distance a year ago and the handicapper has had his say since. He is still 11lbs higher than that mark and his record off 2lbs higher reads 0-4. As a rule he generally runs well in class 5, 2-7, but this is a big ask off this mark.
Conclusion; With Goring Two, Tchang Goon and Lady Willa all liking to race prominently, this may well turn into a stamina test. Held up, usually way off the pace, Join The Navy should find this much easier than the contest he run well in last time and off 2lbs lower, he may well pick these off for fun.
YOUNG JACKIE 5.20 LINGFIELD
Connections were disappointed when Young Jackie was beaten last time over 8 furlongs. They felt the horse had come to win her race but was in front too soon and consequently tried to pull herself up. The visor replacing the blinkers should help her today as should the step up to 10 furlongs. She won both her races over 9.5 furlongs, so it should be ideal. She produced a speed figure of 58 last time so she has 5lbs in hand of her mark. She achieved a class rating of 51 which is the best of all of these.
Her style of running will negate the wide draw.
Capriska is 0-7 in all races and was given a very gentle time of it when she was last seen. She steps up to 10 furlongs where she has a 2l third to her name. She is by Bahri whose progeny are 3-43 here over 10 furlongs. These type of horses from Willie Musson tend to be overbet but he is 3-63 with maidens running in a handicap here.
Hollywood All Star is 0-14 in all races. The closest he has got to the winner on the sand is 3ls over 9.5 furlongs at Wolverhampton. Willie Muir is 4-74 with maidens running in a handicap here.
Salient, last win on sand was nearly three years ago and he is 0-20 since, Frosty Friday 0-13 on sand and from a yard with one winner from their last 27 runners, Roman Senate, 0-7 on sand, is from a yard that is 8-176 here, Fairy Mist has won a seller but is 0-20 in handicaps, Archelao 0-12 in handicaps and from a yard on a losing run of 71, Yalding Dancer could improve for the step up to 10 furlongs. She has never got involved in races over 7 furlongs. John Best is 10-196 with maidens in handicaps here and the last 32 have all lost, Dolly Colman makes up this particular bunch but she has won a class 7 a year ago. She was second btn 1l in January over course and distance which would give her a shout. But all of them are disappointing sorts.
Conclusion; This has to be one of the worst handicaps of the year and Young Jackie may well take a lot of beating. Jordan Vaughan will not make the same mistake as last time. Dolly Colman is a huge price considering the opposition.
mlmrob
Sire
LADY OF BURGUNDY 2.40 WOLVERHAMPTON
Lady Of Burgundy produced list topping figures on both speed and class last time and drops in class today. She needs to have pace to aim at and with two front runners she will get that today.
She was a tad unlucky last time when second to Bernisdale as she got boxed in at a crucial time and the bird had flown. She has the beating of Mazij, 3lbs better off for a neck and Crimson Monarch's latest win came 6 years after his first win, not the most consistent of horses but he should run well. Needwood Park is a 18 race maiden and his trainer Ray Craggs had his first winner for three years the other day. Laylas Boy is 1-44 and 0-13 at Wolverhampton.
Conclusion:This should be run to suit and Lady Of Burgundy looks on a decent mark to win her second race.
CHESTER DEELYTE 4.55 WOLVERHAMPTON
Chester Deelyte stayed on well last time producing a speed figure 10lbs above her mark. She is 9 points clear at the top of the ratings. She tops the class figures as well.The step up in trip should suit and her third to Metropolitan Chief last time looks strong with the second and fourth subsequently winning.
Maz has won over course and distance, her only win. She is 0-11 when returning to the track inside a fortnight, placing just once. Local Singer has never placed in 9 races on the all weather and has never placed from 3 races when returning after a break of 90 days or more. Frank Sheridan has had one winner from his last 88 runners and is 0-44 with horses that have had a break of 90 days or more. Qeethara has never won over further than 8 furlongs and is 0-7 over this course and distance. Simon Hodgson has had 1 winner from 34 runners. His horse. Mayforde Jack, is by Septeime Ciel who is 1-88 with his progeny over distances of 10.5 furlongs or less. Tooley Woods is 0-6 on sand and 0-4 here. She is 0-8 over distances beyond 7f and never placed in two runs over this trip. She is 0-10 running round a bend.
Conclusion; Lisa Williamson is without a winner since December, 20 runners, but there is a lot to like about Chester Deelyte. There are a couple of these who can lead plus Local Singer is usually keen. If Chester Deelyte gets anywhere near replicating her last run she will take an awful lot of beating.
Lady Of Burgundy produced list topping figures on both speed and class last time and drops in class today. She needs to have pace to aim at and with two front runners she will get that today.
She was a tad unlucky last time when second to Bernisdale as she got boxed in at a crucial time and the bird had flown. She has the beating of Mazij, 3lbs better off for a neck and Crimson Monarch's latest win came 6 years after his first win, not the most consistent of horses but he should run well. Needwood Park is a 18 race maiden and his trainer Ray Craggs had his first winner for three years the other day. Laylas Boy is 1-44 and 0-13 at Wolverhampton.
Conclusion:This should be run to suit and Lady Of Burgundy looks on a decent mark to win her second race.
CHESTER DEELYTE 4.55 WOLVERHAMPTON
Chester Deelyte stayed on well last time producing a speed figure 10lbs above her mark. She is 9 points clear at the top of the ratings. She tops the class figures as well.The step up in trip should suit and her third to Metropolitan Chief last time looks strong with the second and fourth subsequently winning.
Maz has won over course and distance, her only win. She is 0-11 when returning to the track inside a fortnight, placing just once. Local Singer has never placed in 9 races on the all weather and has never placed from 3 races when returning after a break of 90 days or more. Frank Sheridan has had one winner from his last 88 runners and is 0-44 with horses that have had a break of 90 days or more. Qeethara has never won over further than 8 furlongs and is 0-7 over this course and distance. Simon Hodgson has had 1 winner from 34 runners. His horse. Mayforde Jack, is by Septeime Ciel who is 1-88 with his progeny over distances of 10.5 furlongs or less. Tooley Woods is 0-6 on sand and 0-4 here. She is 0-8 over distances beyond 7f and never placed in two runs over this trip. She is 0-10 running round a bend.
Conclusion; Lisa Williamson is without a winner since December, 20 runners, but there is a lot to like about Chester Deelyte. There are a couple of these who can lead plus Local Singer is usually keen. If Chester Deelyte gets anywhere near replicating her last run she will take an awful lot of beating.
mlmrob
Sire
SEHNSUCHT 5.10 YARMOUTH
John Quinn has been flying with horses making their debut for after arriving from another yard. From the last eight to run, five have won and three have placed.
Charles Wentworth sent Quinn Leviate and this horse in December from Alan McCabe's and Quinn won the Lincoln with Levitate on Saturday.
Sehnsucht holds an entry at Leicester in a few days, so the yard look keen to get a race into the horse. He is stepped up to 10 furlongs and regualar jockey Shane Kelly takes the ride. He has rode just once for this yard.
John Quinn has been flying with horses making their debut for after arriving from another yard. From the last eight to run, five have won and three have placed.
Charles Wentworth sent Quinn Leviate and this horse in December from Alan McCabe's and Quinn won the Lincoln with Levitate on Saturday.
Sehnsucht holds an entry at Leicester in a few days, so the yard look keen to get a race into the horse. He is stepped up to 10 furlongs and regualar jockey Shane Kelly takes the ride. He has rode just once for this yard.
mlmrob
Sire
FOXHUNTERS CHASE 3.40 AINTREE.
This is quite a telling race trend wise.
16-16 winners were aged 9-12.
14-16 winners were single figure odds.
However, it is an emerging trend that appears to sort the men from the boys so to speak.
11-11 winners had won a class 3 or better chase.
Gwanako is in the right price, right age and has won a class 3 chase.
Bold Addition is only 8 and hasn't won a class 3 chase or better.
Warne hasn't won a class 3 chase or better
Coattage Oak hasn't won a class 3 chase or better
Rebel Du Maquis is only 8
Cloudy Lane is 13.
So from the likley contenders only Gwanako fits the trends. My main worry is this race usually goes to a horse that races prominently and Gwanako is a hold up horse. He is the best horse in the race on official ratings
This is quite a telling race trend wise.
16-16 winners were aged 9-12.
14-16 winners were single figure odds.
However, it is an emerging trend that appears to sort the men from the boys so to speak.
11-11 winners had won a class 3 or better chase.
Gwanako is in the right price, right age and has won a class 3 chase.
Bold Addition is only 8 and hasn't won a class 3 chase or better.
Warne hasn't won a class 3 chase or better
Coattage Oak hasn't won a class 3 chase or better
Rebel Du Maquis is only 8
Cloudy Lane is 13.
So from the likley contenders only Gwanako fits the trends. My main worry is this race usually goes to a horse that races prominently and Gwanako is a hold up horse. He is the best horse in the race on official ratings
mlmrob
Sire
INOOGOO 3.30 KELSO
Inoogoo has met some pretty decent horses in his chasing career to date, Just beaen 5ls by Unioniste in his second chase, that form alone looks strong enough here with Unioniste winning twice more and going off favourite for the Sun Alliance off a mark of 153. He had 142 rated Carlito Brigante 25ls behind him. Inoogoo went on to bump into Capain Conan before being well beaten by Viva Colonia who in turn was only beaten 9ls in the Red Rum. He was 20ls behind Cedre Bleu last time and takes a massive drop in class today. The fact is, he returned a class figure of 127 last time and to win todays race he only has to return a figure of 114.
Jonathan Bewley takes a very handy 7lbs off and it makes him very well handicapped.
Kai Broon won the race last year and the yard have won the last two runnings of this and he looks like he has been aimed for the race again. However, this is a much tougher renewal. Last year the race had a class figure of 106, this year it is 114.
Kai Broon is also 8lbs higher. He has conditions to suit but he is 0-4 carrying 11-5 or more.
Jack The Gent was beaten 5ls by Conquisto at Southwell which is decent form but he comes from a yard withour a winner since November, 0-27 and only 3 winners from their last 100.
Conclusion; The race should just concern the three but I am confident that today is the day for Inoogoo.
Inoogoo has met some pretty decent horses in his chasing career to date, Just beaen 5ls by Unioniste in his second chase, that form alone looks strong enough here with Unioniste winning twice more and going off favourite for the Sun Alliance off a mark of 153. He had 142 rated Carlito Brigante 25ls behind him. Inoogoo went on to bump into Capain Conan before being well beaten by Viva Colonia who in turn was only beaten 9ls in the Red Rum. He was 20ls behind Cedre Bleu last time and takes a massive drop in class today. The fact is, he returned a class figure of 127 last time and to win todays race he only has to return a figure of 114.
Jonathan Bewley takes a very handy 7lbs off and it makes him very well handicapped.
Kai Broon won the race last year and the yard have won the last two runnings of this and he looks like he has been aimed for the race again. However, this is a much tougher renewal. Last year the race had a class figure of 106, this year it is 114.
Kai Broon is also 8lbs higher. He has conditions to suit but he is 0-4 carrying 11-5 or more.
Jack The Gent was beaten 5ls by Conquisto at Southwell which is decent form but he comes from a yard withour a winner since November, 0-27 and only 3 winners from their last 100.
Conclusion; The race should just concern the three but I am confident that today is the day for Inoogoo.